NNE Winter Snow Thread

[mreaves]

Down to -5° at the house this morning. Squall came through Montpelier around noon yesterday. I was just ducking out at lunch when it hit us. Visibility dropped to near zero for a time. There didn't seem to be that much accumulation down here, I was a little surprised to see that we had gotten almost 2 inches at my house. Hopefully the rain this weekend dosen't crush us too badly.

[MaineJayhawk]

From the MARCH thread... figure I'd post it in here, too as its NNE oriented.

This is Tim Kelley's 20 second clip of the conditions at 3,000ft during the WINDEX event yesterday.

Weir Lundstedt enjoying the event he named... oh and by the way, conditions are as harsh as Weir looks uncomfortable. He's standing fully exposed at the top of the chute to brutal NNW winds. We clocked some 50mph gusts at the ski area with this squall line.

Temp this morning is -12F up there.

Bare-bottom skiing really is the way to go.

-5F was about the lowest I saw on the therm this am. Doesn't even really feel all that cold anymore.

[dryslot]

Bare-bottom skiing really is the way to go.

-5F was about the lowest I saw on the therm this am. Doesn't even really feel all that cold anymore.

No, Kind of get use to it, Especially if your outside in it all the time

[powderfreak]

Bare-bottom skiing really is the way to go.

-5F was about the lowest I saw on the therm this am. Doesn't even really feel all that cold anymore.

Those guys are as big of weather weenies as any of us on this board. The whole time they were tweeting with Jim Cantore (can you imagine if that was your college roommate? lol) and each lift ride we were getting more and more pumped for the squall line. The passion for weather, especially winter weather, was very evident.

Just a beautiful morning out there though... the subzero here at the base doesn't feel bad at all with no wind and sunshine. In fact, our thermometer in the sun is already up to 11F (showing that the sun makes a huge difference this time of year) while the one in the shade is at -4F. The top of the mountain is still pretty brutal... 20mph gusts aren't much, but at -12F it does sting a bit.

Here's the current webcam shot of the western side of Mansfield from the Burlington Airport/BTV... only clouds are a few wispy things hanging onto the ridgeline. Should be a great late-winter day in NNE.

[Allenson]

I bet if you had gotten 145" so far, your snow depth would be like 48-50" because most of your snow is of the synoptic variety that won't just dissolve as soon as it settles.

Just about spot-on, Powder. We finnished up at 148" for the 07-08 winter and had a peak depth of 49" during the first week in March. I don't have my nunbers in front of me at the moment and don't recall how much snow I logged after that maximum snowpack measurement but we're certainly in the ballpark.

Wish I was out today and not stuck in.....!

[bobbutts]

That's some rain man stuff right there.. "49 inches, definitely 49 inches"

well done

[tamarack]

Just about spot-on, Powder. We finnished up at 148" for the 07-08 winter and had a peak depth of 49" during the first week in March. I don't have my nunbers in front of me at the moment and don't recall how much snow I logged after that maximum snowpack measurement but we're certainly in the ballpark.

Very similar IMBY, 142" and max 48" on 3/1. We'd get another 12" in March, but all in small doses as snow depth gradually decreased.

Was at a meeting in north AUG yesterday aft, and snow began 3:10, took about 10 min to fully arrive, then puked fat wet flakes for 15 min, tapered and ended by 3:40, sun out thru broken clouds by 4:15. About 3/4" of fluff there, and since it began with upper 30s temps then cooled, every twig was snow-coated and glistening in the sunlight. Driving north, snowbank whitening looked about the same until I topped Mile Hill, and by the time I reached the Rt 27/2 jct, there was no longer signs of new snow. At home I checked all the little pockets that usually catch windblown dusting-level snowfall, and found nothing. My wife said it had snowed hard for several minutes, but it all blew away or sumlimated before I got there, and I've reported only a trace. The 2010-11 Rt 2 snow deflector has been especially efficient against snowsqualls.

Temp down to -11 this morn at my place, and may not get up to the 15 I recorded last evening. Might have a shot at establishing a the winter low tomorrow; currently the bottom is -21. Winter's coldest came in March in 2001 and 2007, and just missed 2008 (came on 2/29.)

[mattlacroix4]

12Z GFS is a lot colder for Sunday-Monday then before, showing the main wave riding up after the 0C line moves through. Could be an area of heavy rain changing to wet sloppy snow from Vermont to NH as the day goes on, and it could be quite a bit.

[coldsmoke]

12Z GFS is a lot colder for Sunday-Monday then before, showing the main wave riding up after the 0C line moves through. Could be an area of heavy rain changing to wet sloppy snow from Vermont to NH as the day goes on, and it could be quite a bit.

still holding out hope that this won't be a disaster for march skiing.. talk about threading the needle..

[dryslot]

12Z GFS is a lot colder for Sunday-Monday then before, showing the main wave riding up after the 0C line moves through. Could be an area of heavy rain changing to wet sloppy snow from Vermont to NH as the day goes on, and it could be quite a bit.

Quite sure this is going to flip around more over the next few days, At least its cutting back on the qpf up here right now on the GFS anyways so it would minimize the damage if it does stay rain..

[klw]

Question:

Let's assume current forcast verifies for this weekend of snow to rain to snow with 24 hours of temps between freezing and 40. To avoid water in the basement, am I better off removing snow from near the house or using the snowpack to absorb the rain? The house has an addition off middle of the back of the downstairs which serves to funnel rain from the roof to an area near the back of the home. the land behind the house is slanted towards the house so it doesn't drain away. The basement on that corner has a couple of large granite boulders which allow the water to sneak inside. I will end up with some water if there is usually more than an inch or so of rain. Currently I have a very compacted base of 2 1'2 to 3 feet of snow in this area as snow has come off the roof. there are taller piles as well but they are mostly away from this spot. So should I remove the snow to lessen a melt contriubtion or leave it to soak up the rain?

Hopefully the 0 850 line ends up moving about 50 miles further east and i get 20 inches of snow and all of the above is moot.

Here is a recent shot of the addition area though it is the spot on the fra side of it (north side) that I get particularily nervous about.

[tamarack]

still holding out hope that this won't be a disaster for march skiing.. talk about threading the needle..

Welcome, neighbor! Hadn't noticed your posts before this one.

As Jeff just noticed, the models will likely flop around like a salmon freshly pulled through the ice-fishing hole. I just hope it's not going to end like 06z gfs. (My link hasn't updated to 12z yet. )

That one had Clayton Lake getting 25" while Augusta gets 2" rain and 40s.

[klw]

Here's the 12z GFS clown map

[MaineJayhawk]

Welcome, neighbor! Hadn't noticed your posts before this one.

As Jeff just noticed, the models will likely flop around like a salmon freshly pulled through the ice-fishing hole. I just hope it's not going to end like 06z gfs. (My link hasn't updated to 12z yet. )

That one had Clayton Lake getting 25" while Augusta gets 2" rain and 40s.

Yes, 12z looks much-improved vs 6z

NCEP linkeroo

[dryslot]

Welcome, neighbor! Hadn't noticed your posts before this one.

As Jeff just noticed, the models will likely flop around like a salmon freshly pulled through the ice-fishing hole. I just hope it's not going to end like 06z gfs. (My link hasn't updated to 12z yet. )

That one had Clayton Lake getting 25" while Augusta gets 2" rain and 40s.

The 12z GFS scenario is one thats probably at this point the one we will need to have happen, Part 2 of this system is the all important piece really, The 1st part has been consisitant with -SN to -RN.......

[dryslot]

Rain changing to heavy wet snow on the 12Z Euro, Low on mon-tues tracks right over the outer cape into the GOM, Whites get smoked on this run as well as some of the inland locations

[Allenson]

Very similar IMBY, 142" and max 48" on 3/1. We'd get another 12" in March, but all in small doses as snow depth gradually decreased.

I've noticed that you and I tend to end up with similar numbers. The driving forces might differ somewhat but the totals end up quite close to one another.

Question:

Let's assume current forcast verifies for this weekend of snow to rain to snow with 24 hours of temps between freezing and 40. To avoid water in the basement, am I better off removing snow from near the house or using the snowpack to absorb the rain?

Good question! I would almost think at this point leaving the snow might be better. The ground underneath is surely still plenty frozen, leaving the water no place to go other than to butt up against your foundation if the snow were removed. The snow still in place should act like a sponge unless we get 3-4" of rain, in which case the rainwater would likely seep all the way through. Later in March, after the now starts to receed away from the house and the ground near the foundation thaws some, then might be a good time to heave the snow away from the house.

Just a thought though. I'm probably completely wrong.

[mattb65]

Rain changing to heavy wet snow on the 12Z Euro, Low on mon-tues tracks right over the outer cape into the GOM, Whites get smoked on this run as well as some of the inland locations

Some of the recent gfs runs have also showed some heavy ice potential for parts of nne and cne. Also something to watch out for, not sure if the euro has also been showing this since I don't have access. I sure hope it ends up as mostly snow p type since I finally have some time to get up to the mountains.

[dryslot]

Some of the recent gfs runs have also showed some heavy ice potential for parts of nne and cne. Also something to watch out for, not sure if the euro has also been showing this since I don't have access. I sure hope it ends up as mostly snow p type since I finally have some time to get up to the mountains.

Per the euro, The mtns would be crushed, 2" qpf, 24"+ of snow

[ctsnowstorm628]

Per the euro, The mtns would be crushed, 2" qpf, 24"+ of snow

is ne vt included in that area? lol

[klw]

is ne vt included in that area? lol

Beat me to the question.

[tamarack]

I've noticed that you and I tend to end up with similar numbers. The driving forces might differ somewhat but the totals end up quite close to one another.

Often the case. Earlier this year you were quite a bit ahead, but I'm within about a foot now of your total. I think you did considerably better than my 64.8" last season, as well. However, our snowpack to snowfall ratios track pretty closely.

[Allenson]

Often the case. Earlier this year you were quite a bit ahead, but I'm within about a foot now of your total. I think you did considerably better than my 64.8" last season, as well. However, our snowpack to snowfall ratios track pretty closely.

77" or so last year. Also similar with regards to temps!

[dendrite]

Most of VT is 1-2" QPF on the EC (that's not including rain QPF). All of NH is 2"+, but the 850 0C line sets up somewhere around IZG southwestward to EEN/AFN. If that is the warmest layer then I'm close to getting decked here with 2"+ QPF of mostly snow too. The low level/sfc cold will advect in first so that is not an issue. It would probably be a R to ZR/IP to SN scenario. The ensembles are a little bit colder, but that could be due to spread in the timing and not necessarily colder while the precip is falling versus the Op. It will be interesting to follow since 00z sorta lost the snowy 2nd wave potential only to see 12z bring it back.

[vttaconics]

I just saw the 12z euro.... I think my heart skipped a beat! Holy ****!

[Arnold214]

Most of VT is 1-2" QPF on the EC (that's not including rain QPF). All of NH is 2"+, but the 850 0C line sets up somewhere around IZG southwestward to EEN/AFN. If that is the warmest layer then I'm close to getting decked here with 2"+ QPF of mostly snow too. The low level/sfc cold will advect in first so that is not an issue. It would probably be a R to ZR/IP to SN scenario. The ensembles are a little bit colder, but that could be due to spread in the timing and not necessarily colder while the precip is falling versus the Op. It will be interesting to follow since 00z sorta lost the snowy 2nd wave potential only to see 12z bring it back.

What do you think for a low at CON and BML tonight?

[dendrite]

What do you think for a low at CON and BML tonight?

heh...I was actually briefly looking over guidance and was worried you may ask what I thought.

The MAV was too cold this afternoon (compared to the MET), but I have a feeling it will perform better tonight with the 1040+ high moving overhead of the CWA overnight. I'm already decoupling a bit and have fallen to 12F.

At 00z CON is running above guidance, but I think they will make that up once they go calm. BML is already down to 1F which is below the MET but above the 18z MAV.

On classic rad cooling nights I always tend to lean toward the cold end of guidance in the typical cold spots like BML, HIE, IZG, CON, LEB, etc. The high clouds are a wildcard, but they seem to be getting sheared out a bit on IR.

18z MAV has BML at -32F so that would be a hell of a drop from a high of 16F. I'd probably take a MAV/MET blend, but put a bit more weight toward the MAV for the lows.

One thing I tend to look for to tell if the valleys will reach extremes rad cooling lows is based on the MWN conditions. Right now they are in the relative clear with 100+ mile vis and low RH. I find that really lets the hill/mountain side skin surfaces to radiate like mad and let the cold drain into the lower elevations. If MWN was 100% RH and in the pea soup FZFG I'd be wary of HIE/BML losing another 30 degrees from where they are right now.

Where are you leaning right now?

[Arnold214]

heh...I was actually briefly looking over guidance and was worried you may ask what I thought.

The MAV was too cold this afternoon (compared to the MET), but I have a feeling it will perform better tonight with the 1040+ high moving overhead of the CWA overnight. I'm already decoupling a bit and have fallen to 12F.

At 00z CON is running above guidance, but I think they will make that up once they go calm. BML is already down to 1F which is below the MET but above the 18z MAV.

On classic rad cooling nights I always tend to lean toward the cold end of guidance in the typical cold spots like BML, HIE, IZG, CON, LEB, etc. The high clouds are a wildcard, but they seem to be getting sheared out a bit on IR.

18z MAV has BML at -32F so that would be a hell of a drop from a high of 16F. I'd probably take a MAV/MET blend, but put a bit more weight toward the MAV for the lows.

One thing I tend to look for to tell if the valleys will reach extremes rad cooling lows is based on the MWN conditions. Right now they are in the relative clear with 100+ mile vis and low RH. I find that really lets the hill/mountain side skin surfaces to radiate like mad and let the cold drain into the lower elevations. If MWN was 100% RH and in the pea soup FZFG I'd be wary of HIE/BML losing another 30 degrees from where they are right now.

Where are you leaning right now?

We are thinking along very similar lines. The MAVs are too cold right now for quite a few stations, but a lot of times that won't matter...stations will play catch-up anyway. I am a bit more concerned with clouds after 07z or 08z. Right now I am thinking like -8 or -9 for CON and -26 or so for BML but I may end up hedging warmer with the increasing cloud cover after midnight. How do you usually run compared to CON on nights like this?

[Ginx snewx]

heh...I was actually briefly looking over guidance and was worried you may ask what I thought.

The MAV was too cold this afternoon (compared to the MET), but I have a feeling it will perform better tonight with the 1040+ high moving overhead of the CWA overnight. I'm already decoupling a bit and have fallen to 12F.

At 00z CON is running above guidance, but I think they will make that up once they go calm. BML is already down to 1F which is below the MET but above the 18z MAV.

On classic rad cooling nights I always tend to lean toward the cold end of guidance in the typical cold spots like BML, HIE, IZG, CON, LEB, etc. The high clouds are a wildcard, but they seem to be getting sheared out a bit on IR.

18z MAV has BML at -32F so that would be a hell of a drop from a high of 16F. I'd probably take a MAV/MET blend, but put a bit more weight toward the MAV for the lows.

One thing I tend to look for to tell if the valleys will reach extremes rad cooling lows is based on the MWN conditions. Right now they are in the relative clear with 100+ mile vis and low RH. I find that really lets the hill/mountain side skin surfaces to radiate like mad and let the cold drain into the lower elevations. If MWN was 100% RH and in the pea soup FZFG I'd be wary of HIE/BML losing another 30 degrees from where they are right now.

Where are you leaning right now?

Great post, BML -32 wow, whats their March record?

[dendrite]

We are thinking along very similar lines. The MAVs are too cold right now for quite a few stations, but a lot of times that won't matter...stations will play catch-up anyway. I am a bit more concerned with clouds after 07z or 08z. Right now I am thinking like -8 or -9 for CON and -26 or so for BML but I may end up hedging warmer with the increasing cloud cover after midnight. How do you usually run compared to CON on nights like this?

I run warmer, but I'm halfway up a hill. Most of the general area is 410-450ft around the Winnipesaukee River. I'm at about 610ft and the top of my hill pushes 900ft. I've seen the bottom of my hill near 10F colder than me before. On a night like this sometimes CON is 5F colder than me, but that puts the lower elevations similar to CON. I tend to run similar to, but a little colder than, LCI. It looks like LCI shat the bed today though.

Anyways...the sites will have to cool quite a bit over the next 2hrs to reach the 3z guidance temps. I do think the clouds are a concern. Steve brought up BML records for March and from the COOP site it appears it'd be close to a record for the airport...

BERLIN (270690)

Extremes

Lowest Daily Minimum Temperature (degrees F)

Days: 3/1 - 3/31

Length of period: 1 day

Years: 1886-2011

Rank Value Ending Date

1 -29 3/4/1938, 3/5/1887

I'm not sure the increasing cloudiness overnight screams near record cold for tonight although the deep snowpack and perfect timing of the 1040 high does. I think I agree with your numbers though and you're right that a lot of times the stations will play catch-up. CON may run warmer than guidance for the next few hours and then pull off one of those 5-10F hourly drops.