powderfreak Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Tomorrow looks like a snowy day here in the NW-flow upslope regions... and maybe some squalls even for you NW downslopers. This has all the makings of a nice 2-4" fluffer with localized amounts to 6" above 3,000ft at Jay, Smuggs, Stowe, and Bolton. People usually under-estimate how little QPF can produce decent totals at 30:1 ratios... and models always under-estimate upsloping QPF. 12z NAM has .1-.25" across the NW flow favored terrain of the NW Adirondacks, NW Greens and NW Whites. A nice snowfall to keep things fresh. BTV calling for 1-3" right now which seems like a decent call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 It's March. Spring is here. No more snow talk below this line --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You're like my co-worker. She claims to be in meterological spring now and that winter is over. I asked her if she was going to get her garden rototilled anytime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 1, 2011 Author Share Posted March 1, 2011 I haven't looked at anything (yet) but if you say trends have been favorable then huzzah! Its a pretty complex system, A thread the needle type storm, But if it ends up wintery, It would favor us up here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattdWX Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 what a day in the northeast kingdom of vermont yesterday. Got first tracks on 2-3 inches of powder at burke mountain (got one of the first chairs too). Literally most trails did not have any tracks down them as I was riding up for the first run of the day. The mountain got around 2-4 inches of snow, it dumped snow and sleet most of the morning and tapered in the afternoon. Overall, a net gain to the snow pack. This March looks interesting to say the least, could be very very active with some cold thrown in. We need this weekends event to stay cold too. Regardless this March will be 100% better than last march when most places had bare ground by the middle of the month and ski areas were barely holding on until the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Its a pretty complex system, A thread the needle type storm, But if it ends up wintery, It would favor us up here.. Just looked at the 12z GFS. Can't get much better than that, which is a concern right off the bat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Just looked at the 12z GFS. Can't get much better than that, which is a concern right off the bat. Haha, it can get a lot better than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 1, 2011 Author Share Posted March 1, 2011 Just looked at the 12z GFS. Can't get much better than that, which is a concern right off the bat. Doc has similar, But a warmer scenario snow rain snow type on the op, But i hear the Euro ensembles were a colder scenario as well, Just looked at the GFS ensembles and they are cold also, Virtually all snow with some taint, But being still 7 days out, Take it FWIW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Haha, it can get a lot better than that. lol .. yes, of course but I'm just thinking of the tremendous pile of snow with wave #2. Let's see what the Doc has on his mind today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Doc has similar, But a warmer scenario snow rain snow type on the op, But i hear the Euro ensembles were a colder scenario as well, Just looked at the GFS ensembles and they are cold also, Virtually all snow with some taint, But being still 7 days out, Take it FWIW... This is what I'm looking at when I say it looks great now, BUT .... We'll see. Storms have been trending colder with time lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 1, 2011 Author Share Posted March 1, 2011 This is what I'm looking at when I say it looks great now, BUT .... We'll see. Storms have been trending colder with time lately. Yesterdays was a great example of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 1, 2011 Author Share Posted March 1, 2011 This is what I'm looking at when I say it looks great now, BUT .... We'll see. Storms have been trending colder with time lately. If you looked at the 06z GFS, I had made a comment to that this AM, That storm would more then likely NOT take that path, It would either be further west or east but we all know a week out means nothing, Every storm this year for the most part was still up in the air even 48 hrs out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 lol .. yes, of course but I'm just thinking of the tremendous pile of snow with wave #2. Let's see what the Doc has on his mind today. Ha yeah I'm just joking around with ya.... I knew what you meant; I just thought there was still room for improvement... like moving that first surface low 200 miles southeast, lol. Was skiing with NECN's on-air meteorologist Tim Kelley today and he really thinks this trends more wintry for NNE. He said his neck of the woods in SNE is probably out of the game, but thinks this storm could be very similar to this last storm at least up here in NNE. He was saying watch the high pressure that builds in after tomorrow's cold front, and if we start verifying colder with higher pressures to our north on Thursday, look for a further SE track. The tendency of late is for the highs to be stronger than progged and its forcing the lows SE... keeping us out of a total torch pattern. If we didn't have the confluence in southern Canada, this whole pattern would be 60F rainstorms, one after another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 1, 2011 Author Share Posted March 1, 2011 The Doc gashed himself with a scalpel...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 1, 2011 Author Share Posted March 1, 2011 Ha yeah I'm just joking around with ya.... I knew what you meant; I just thought there was still room for improvement... like moving that first surface low 200 miles southeast, lol. Was skiing with NECN's on-air meteorologist Tim Kelley today and he really thinks this trends more wintry for NNE. He said his neck of the woods in SNE is probably out of the game, but thinks this storm could be very similar to this last storm at least up here in NNE. He was saying watch the high pressure that builds in after tomorrow's cold front, and if we start verifying colder with higher pressures to our north on Thursday, look for a further SE track. The tendency of late is for the highs to be stronger than progged and its forcing the lows SE... keeping us out of a total torch pattern. If we didn't have the confluence in southern Canada, this whole pattern would be 60F rainstorms, one after another. Hopefully you have flood insurance if that Euro verified Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Hopefully you have flood insurance if that Euro verified Not surprised and not concerned by Doc. Long ways to go and Euro has been stumbling. Can only keep waiting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 1, 2011 Author Share Posted March 1, 2011 Not surprised and not concerned by Doc. Long ways to go and Euro has been stumbling. Can only keep waiting. We will know friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Ha yeah I'm just joking around with ya.... I knew what you meant; I just thought there was still room for improvement... like moving that first surface low 200 miles southeast, lol. Was skiing with NECN's on-air meteorologist Tim Kelley today and he really thinks this trends more wintry for NNE. He said his neck of the woods in SNE is probably out of the game, but thinks this storm could be very similar to this last storm at least up here in NNE. He was saying watch the high pressure that builds in after tomorrow's cold front, and if we start verifying colder with higher pressures to our north on Thursday, look for a further SE track. The tendency of late is for the highs to be stronger than progged and its forcing the lows SE... keeping us out of a total torch pattern. If we didn't have the confluence in southern Canada, this whole pattern would be 60F rainstorms, one after another. Euro shows 4-6 inches of rain for the dacks early next week on the 40-50 inch snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Event totals: 1.4” Snow/0.60” L.E. Tuesday 3/1/2011 6:00 A.M. update: I was just too busy yesterday to send in an evening update on the storm, but here in Burlington I saw snow and sleet, and even some rain. At the house it looks like we were mostly snow and sleet, but there may have been a bit of liquid precipitation since the top of the new accumulation is a bit crusty. This storm has been quite a nice addition to the snowpack, with 0.60” of L.E. coming down. It was dense enough that it actually compressed the snowpack down a half inch lower than where it was yesterday. With the 1.4 inches from this event, the month of February finished off with 48.1 inches, which is above the average (43.5 inches) calculated from my past four years worth of data, and is good enough for second place in terms of February snowfall behind ’07-’08 (54.7 inches). I was just looking at my monthly data and realized that despite not really getting into the big synoptic storms until February, with 55.5 inches, this January was the snowiest of any I’ve recorded. I was surprised since we were out of the storm track basically all month, but I can see that a lot of the snow came through as upslope snowfall at the beginning of the month. Anyway, putting those two months back to back meant over 100 inches of snowfall and has obviously helped with the season snowfall total. On that note, as of March 1st, the running snowfall total at the house is 153.0 inches, which is 16.2 inches ahead of the average I have for this date (136.8 inches) and about 15-20 inches behind the ’08-’09 and ‘07-’08 numbers. That’s right around where we’ve been running for a while, so the pace continues. March of ’08-’09 was pretty lean for snowfall though, so even a typical March would allow some catching up on that season in terms of snowfall. As Powderfreak mentioned above, the next system in the train should be in the area tomorrow to start off snowfall for March. Some details from yesterday’s 10:00 P.M. Waterbury observations are below: New Snow: 1.2 inches New Liquid: 0.58 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 2.1 Snow Density: 48.3% H2O Temperature: 30.2 F Sky: Mostly Clear Snow at the stake: 26.5 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Just looked at the 12z GFS. Can't get much better than that, which is a concern right off the bat. Right on both counts. Hard to beat 20" for AUG, even if MBY gets "only" 15, but that has about the same chance of verifying as my chances of being on the final shuttle flight. Some numbers for February IMBY, with departures from the 1999-2011 avg: Avg high:..28.39...-1.01 Avg low:.....2.93....-2.76 Avg temp: 15.66...-1.88 (4th coldest of 13) Precip:..3.44"...+0.41" (4th most. Top 4 yr are 2008-2011.) Snow:...30.3"...+8.6" (5th highest) Avg depth:..21.57"...+2.88" (4th highest) Deepest:...28" on 2/28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Euro shows 4-6 inches of rain for the dacks early next week on the 40-50 inch snowpack. Oh man... seriously 6" of rain from one event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 18Z GFS changes the rain to snow and gives parts of C/NNE like 30" of snow on day 6. Whatever happens looks like a major weather event with either floods or crippling snow with a low crawling up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 1, 2011 Author Share Posted March 1, 2011 18Z GFS changes the rain to snow and gives parts of C/NNE like 30" of snow on day 6. Whatever happens looks like a major weather event with either floods or crippling snow with a low crawling up the coast. Will need either an ark or a snowmobile to get around in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 18Z GFS changes the rain to snow and gives parts of C/NNE like 30" of snow on day 6. Whatever happens looks like a major weather event with either floods or crippling snow with a low crawling up the coast. There is a lot of rain and sleet in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 There is a lot of rain and sleet in there. 18z GFS sounding gives 2.2" QPF as snow at BTV after 0.4" of rain... 2.6" storm total. That's a little rain followed by a huge wet snow bomb. As soon as the H85 freezing line moves SE, it goes isothermal heavy snow. Sleet and ZR for Montpelier/MPV on that solution, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 18z GFS sounding gives 2.2" QPF as snow at BTV after 0.4" of rain... 2.6" storm total. That's a little rain followed by a huge wet snow bomb. As soon as the H85 freezing line moves SE, it goes isothermal heavy snow. Sleet and ZR for Montpelier/MPV on that solution, though. It depends where you are. It's more tricky further east across parts of NH and ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Its over.... at least my spring break for two weeks starts friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 GFS sticking to its guns on the D6 wet snow bomb.. 00z Euro caves and goes east of 12z. This storm reminds me a lot of the storm around 2/24 last year for the Champlain valley (picked up around 20" in that one at Middlebury) with the stalled front, weak low, marginal temps and extreme QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Here comes today's snowfall... just huge flakes filling the early morning darkness this morning at the mountain. The head lights on the snowcats reveal air that is thick with softly falling dendrites... beautiful stuff when there's no wind and these parachutes seem to stay suspended in the air. Still looking good for 1-3" today, maybe 4" if ratios are really high, as this moisture slams into the northern Greens out of the flats of southern Quebec. Gotta love the westsouthwest flow downsloping off the higher summits area of the Adirondacks into the BTV area. Classic in the CPV during these events. Odd temps this morning... seems higher than a normal lapse rate. We've got 30F here at 1,500ft and Meso-West is showing 16F at 3,900ft. MVL is 34F at 700ft. I guess that's between 6-7F per 1,000ft. Maybe these steep low level lapse rates will aid our snow squall activity today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Light snow breaking out here just now. Might pick up an inch or so today to push my locale over 90" for the season....won't even take a full inch as I'm sitting at 89.6" Takin' it day by day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Snowing pretty good... huge downsloping into the Champlain Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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