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NNE Winter Snow Thread


dryslot

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What do you guys think about these clown maps showing numbers as high as 16-20?

lol ... I was just checking all of those out. I'd say they're overdone a bit. Maybe some isolated spot on a mountain-side sees something like that, but not widespread. I'll be happy to pocket 8+. Less than 6 will be a disappointment, though it's certainly on the table.

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lol ... I was just checking all of those out. I'd say they're overdone a bit. Maybe some isolated spot on a mountain-side sees something like that, but not widespread. I'll be happy to pocket 8+. Less than 6 will be a disappointment, though it's certainly on the table.

I agree. I think it's worth taking a look at the data over the next 2 hours and seeing if any of that high stuff holds. This is a southwest flow event, so I don't want to get expectations too high...

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lol ... I was just checking all of those out. I'd say they're overdone a bit. Maybe some isolated spot on a mountain-side sees something like that, but not widespread. I'll be happy to pocket 8+. Less than 6 will be a disappointment, though it's certainly on the table.

I'm starting to wonder if I'll even make it through the white mountains tomorrow.

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I'm one of the few here from Maine who live in the green part of this map. :thumbsdown:

There's hope, though.

From the AFD ...

THOUGHT ABOUT UPGRADING PORTIONS OF THE COAST TO A WARNING

TOO...BUT HELD OFF FOR NOW. THIS INCLUDES PORTLAND. WILL CONTINUE

WITH HIGH-END ADVISORY THERE...BUT COULD SEE WARNING SNOWS EVEN

THERE WITH A PRETTY INTENSE THUMP OF SNOWFALL RATES PRECEDING ANY

WARM AIR INTRUSION ALOFT OR AT THE SURFACE. CONFIDENCE NOT QUITE

HIGH ENOUGH TO UPGRADE TO WARNING THERE YET. HOWEVER...WILL

MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE WSW PRODUCT.

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I always do. I think my project for the next two hours might be to finally upload my old stuff from earlier in the winter. You would enjoy immensely.

Don't just take pics but also make sure your take a shovel, warm stuff, etc in case you get stuck. There are many blank spots in cell coverage up this way and AAA is often over an hour in responding.

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I think we still have to concern ourselves with the possibility of some taint. NAM 3hrly soundings say I'm safe, but it gets close for awhile. I'm happy to see the SREFs cave colder from 9z to 15z. You're throwing out numbers like Kev now though. I think 8-14" is fine. :)

LOL. Lets see if we have lollies near 18 somewhere (I doubt me or you, but perhaps fairly close by)

I'll take your 8-14!

I think I can back up my forecast:

- qpf from 1-1.5 consistently

- possibility of convection which will give some boosts in some places

- starting early in the morning when surfaces are cooler so accumulation starts immediately

- slow but steady trends increasing, not decreasing, qpf just before the event.

- slow but steady trends to cooler, reducing risk of taint.

- being so close to the changeover line means we get good forcing, yes?

Just in from dinner at the Homestead in Bristol...not bad.

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