dryslot Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 Looks like the GYX snow map was updated. I will stay with my call from this am 7-12" here final call.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 I'm kinda shocked that I may end up all snow for this. It'll probably be 10:1, but that's not too shabby with 1-1.25" QPF. Yeah, Brian, Been great trends today on the models up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I'm going to separate out the storm obs from this thread and give it its own title. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 I'm going to separate out the storm obs from this thread and give it its own title. That works, This one will get clutterd, Never thought i would say that in the NNE thread....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Post plz, tkx in advance. Sorry ... On iPod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I'm kinda shocked that I may end up all snow for this. It'll probably be 10:1, but that's not too shabby with 1-1.25" QPF. You may jackpot out of this. I'm starting to think that this will be a pretty uniform snowfall with wetter (lower ratio) snow down in the heavier QPF/transition zone, and drier with slightly better ratios as you head north (12-14:1 across N.VT, NNH, and NW ME). I like the colder column up here on the whole as the dendritic snow growth zone lowered a bit into the better omega up this way. Overall, I don't really care if I get 6" or 10", this will just be nice to freshen up the snowpack and add some more water weight to it so it can be nice and durable for the Mon/Tue rainer. Its been fun tracking this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I will stay with my call from this am 7-12" here final call.......... I think that's a valid call for your location. My forecast is 6-10" up here... 6" for the furthest SE guidance and 10" for the more NW meso-models. I'm also thinking there maybe one or two heavier frontogenic bands up north (maybe along the Canadian border?) that could lead to some surprisingly good snowfall totals outside of the heavier modeled QPF... especially as this low deepens near BOS and up here in the NW sector we get into some really good snow growth on the backside deformation axis as H85s plummet to -10C and below. Its going to be fun and this storm should have a very widespread area of 6"+ which is not what I expected a few days ago. I figured there'd be a very narrow axis of significant snowfall, but this has certainly trended juicier in the past 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I was going to split the topic going back to yesterday afternoon, but there's just too many posts to split off. I say we just keep this as the storm thread and then we'll make a new general thread post storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Afternoon revision from GYX has mts/foothills 10-14". Also has the Mon-Tues event as a snow-mix-rain. CAR has that critter all snow for most of their CWA north of BGR. May the SE trend continue for that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 I was going to split the topic going back to yesterday afternoon, but there's just too many posts to split off. I say we just keep this as the storm thread and then we'll make a new general thread post storm. You don't get to say that often here......lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 I think that's a valid call for your location. My forecast is 6-10" up here... 6" for the furthest SE guidance and 10" for the more NW meso-models. I'm also thinking there maybe one or two heavier frontogenic bands up north (maybe along the Canadian border?) that could lead to some surprisingly good snowfall totals outside of the heavier modeled QPF... especially as this low deepens near BOS and up here in the NW sector we get into some really good snow growth on the backside deformation axis as H85s plummet to -10C and below. Its going to be fun and this storm should have a very widespread area of 6"+ which is not what I expected a few days ago. I figured there'd be a very narrow axis of significant snowfall, but this has certainly trended juicier in the past 48 hours. Yeah, I think a lot of us including you guys are going to do well with this one, Trends were favorable here as far as locking in colder air aloft, I may have to tweak my map though along the coast on my sled threads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 Afternoon revision from GYX has mts/foothills 10-14". Also has the Mon-Tues event as a snow-mix-rain. CAR has that critter all snow for most of their CWA north of BGR. May the SE trend continue for that storm. 12z Euro really shifted mondays storm further east from 0z, May that trend continue, Heck, This one was a cutter when it was modeled 5 days ago.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I think 10-15 nw n and ne of con with some 18 lollies...comvection with this storm and consistently modelled qpf over 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I checked in on the afternoon update from BTV, and since it showed up as a pink blob, the first thing I noticed on the Storm Total Snow Forecast map was a slight tweaking of projected snowfall amounts in western Washington County into eastern Chittenden and Addison Counties. Coincident with that, the point and click for our area of the Winooski Valley has been bumped slightly to 8-12 inches. Comparing the two maps, I guess that totals in general for Vermont on the map were tweaked up an inch or two. I couldn’t find anything in the discussion about the change, but perhaps it is minor enough that it didn’t warrant any comments. I see that Powderfreak has already posted the updated map, but I added the two maps below for direct comparison: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 BTV updated theirs with increased numbers and upped the amounts in the warning too. Scott, thanks for posting that; you beat me to it! The thread is moving a bit faster than usual today, LOL. I still decided to post and put the old and new maps together for direct comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I think 10-15 nw n and ne of con with some 18 lollies...comvection with this storm and consistently modelled qpf over 1 I think we still have to concern ourselves with the possibility of some taint. NAM 3hrly soundings say I'm safe, but it gets close for awhile. I'm happy to see the SREFs cave colder from 9z to 15z. You're throwing out numbers like Kev now though. I think 8-14" is fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 A nice test for the ole AMEX WRF. Looks like 11-12" here. That map has the most rediculous gradient I've ever seen. 1" in Nashua to 12" in Jaffery 30 or so miles west. um yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Enjoy the snow folks. May Brian taint and Scott remain all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 The 18z GFS is really juicy. Looks like barely all snow here with a hair under 1.50" QPF. It looks like the best frontogenesis sets up near the Canadian border up to about Sherbrooke on the NAM. Someone around there will do decent with totals despite 0.50-0.75" QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Enjoy the snow folks. May Brian taint and Scott remain all snow. lol...when did I piss on your corn flakes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 lol...when did I piss on your corn flakes? LOL, just kiddin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 Enjoy the snow folks. May Brian taint and Scott remain all snow. Thanks Scott, We should rip for a few hours here tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 The 18z GFS is really juicy. Looks like barely all snow here with a hair under 1.50" QPF. It looks like the best frontogenesis sets up near the Canadian border up to about Sherbrooke on the NAM. Someone around there will do decent with totals despite 0.50-0.75" QPF. Yeah that's what I was keying onto in a post a little while ago... I definitely think there could be another snowfall maximum that is removed a decent bit north (north of my area) up near the Canadian border with VT/NH/ME. Better ratios and a stronger fronto band could definitely push that area towards double digits despite lower QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Scott, thanks for posting that; you beat me to it! The thread is moving a bit faster than usual today, LOL. I still decided to post and put the old and new maps together for direct comparison. Haha, is klw also named Scott? There's a bunch of us on here with that name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Nothing we don't already know, but I'm posting it because it agrees with my thoughts over the past couple days of max snowfall from GFL-RUT-LEB and ENE from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Haha, is klw also named Scott? There's a bunch of us on here with that name. It's making me crazy. Sincerely, Original Scott Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Looks like the GYX snow map was updated. I can never find the link for this, can someone post it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I can never find the link for this, can someone post it? ok, just got home ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 What do you guys think for MHT?? I'm thinking we could get 10", I'm thinking we could get 2" lol... tough tough forecast here... Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 That map has the most rediculous gradient I've ever seen. 1" in Nashua to 12" in Jaffery 30 or so miles west. um yeah. Nevermind, THIS is a gradient, 20" to 0" in N pa... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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