weatherMA Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Yes Wow, 2-12" is my final call for there then . 3-5" is Box's forecast for now. Man this is going to be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 Wow, 2-12" is my final call for there then . 3-5" is Box's forecast for now. Man this is going to be close. Should be plenty of cushion......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Heavy anticipation for Ekster's discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Should be plenty of cushion......... I have no clue though. when I went to bed last night it looked like an inch or 2 of slop. Now I could still see that, or I could see 8-12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I must be insane for not being on more with this storm on our doorstep. Impressive trend since last night. Meso's scare me but I will ride EURO/NAM/ETA to my death cause they bury me + bob with a foot or more! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I must be insane for not being on more with this storm on our doorstep. Impressive trend since last night. Meso's scare me but I will ride EURO/NAM/ETA to my death cause they bury me + bob with a foot or more! Yup Copious amounts of white gold coming tomorrow Clouded up fast around noon Not bad out there either low 30s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Yup Copious amounts of white gold coming tomorrow Clouded up fast around noon Not bad out there either low 30s Yeah its very mild this is shortsleeve weather up here. Whats the timeline for heaviest snow? Im going over to Norwich in VT around 2 to pick up a buddy then down to exeter nh for the night. Should be a very fun treck across the whites via the kanc tomorrow!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Yeah its very mild this is shortsleeve weather up here. Whats the timeline for heaviest snow? Im going over to Norwich in VT around 2 to pick up a buddy then down to exeter nh for the night. Should be a very fun treck across the whites via the kanc tomorrow!!!! No idea on the heaviest I was thinking mid morning into the afternnon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 This may be my favorite clown map of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 No idea on the heaviest I was thinking mid morning into the afternnon That will certainly make for interesting driving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 That will certainly make for interesting driving Looks like we start ripping here at 21z per nam, Cold as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Great write up by Ekster, enjoy FRIDAY/S SYSTEM REMAINS VERY TOUGH TO FORECAST IN TERMS OF WHERETHE PTYPE TRANSITION ZONE WILL BE. OVERALL...MUCH OF THE MODELSUITE HAS TRENDED A TICK SOUTH TODAY...AND THEREFORE SLIGHTLYCOLDER IN THE COLUMN ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA.AS A STRONG SOUTHERN STEAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THEWEST...SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS PA AND INTOSOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL LIKELY TRACK SOMEWHERESOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE. THIS WILL LOCK IN RELATIVELY COLD AIR ATTHE SFC FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE IMMEDIATECOAST FOR A TIME. HOWEVER...THIS IS A SOUTHWEST FLOW EVENT IN THEMID LEVELS /SWFE/ DUE TO AN OPEN WAVE OR A WEAKLY CLOSED LOWAPPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS OPENS UP THE DOOR FOR RELATIVELYWARM AIR TO ADVECT NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGHAXIS. SO EVEN THOUGH THE SFC MAY BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORTSNOW...WARM AIR ALOFT MAY ATTEMPT TO CHANGE THE PTYPE OVER TOSLEET /OR FZRA/ FOR A TIME FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. THIS IS THE HARDPART OF THE FORECAST...IE...HOW FAR NORTH DOES THE WARMER AIRALOFT ADVANCE. STRONG UPWARD OMEGA TENDS TO KEEP THE WARM AIR ATBAY...BUT SOMETIMES NOT COMPLETELY. SO THERE WILL BE A BATTLEGOING ON. RIGHT NOW...WE ARE FOLLOWING THE SLIGHTLY COLDER MODELTREND...AND THIS WILL BE REFLECTED IN OUR SNOWFALL FORECAST...BUTSTILL KEEP MENTION OF SOME SLEET AND FZRA.AFTER REVIEWING THE LATEST MODEL DATA...WE DIDN/T END UP CHANGINGTHE FORECAST MUCH...AND DIDN/T CHANGE THE WARNINGS/ADVISORIES ATALL. WE KEPT THE MENTION OF THE CHANCE OF SLEET OR FZRA IN WITHTHE SNOW /HEAVY AT TIMES/ ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THECWA...ROUGHLY FROM KLEB TO KWVL AND SOUTH. THIS DUE TO THEAFOREMENTIONED REASONING...IE...SWFE CLIMO.THOUGHT ABOUT UPGRADING PORTIONS OF THE COAST TO A WARNINGTOO...BUT HELD OFF FOR NOW. THIS INCLUDES PORTLAND. WILL CONTINUEWITH HIGH-END ADVISORY THERE...BUT COULD SEE WARNING SNOWS EVENTHERE WITH A PRETTY INTENSE THUMP OF SNOWFALL RATES PRECEDING ANYWARM AIR INTRUSION ALOFT OR AT THE SURFACE. CONFIDENCE NOT QUITEHIGH ENOUGH TO UPGRADE TO WARNING THERE YET. HOWEVER...WILLMENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE WSW PRODUCT.OTHERWISE...GENERALLY EXPECT AN 8-14 INCH SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF THEWARNING AREA. OBVIOUSLY...IF WARM AIR INTRUDES FURTHERNORTH...THEN AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THECWA...COULD BE LESS.THIS SHOULD BE A RELATIVELY WET SNOW CLOSER TO THECOAST...ESPECIALLY NEAR ANY TRANSITION ZONE. THIS COULD RESULT INSCT POWER OUTAGES...EVEN IN PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR. WE ARE NOTEXPECTED A LOT OF FREEZING RAIN OUT OF THIS SYSTEM.HOWEVER...THERE/S A CHANCE FOR A TENTH OR TWO JUST WEST OF THERAIN/SNOW LINE. IF THIS OCCURS IT WOULD PROBABLY SOMEWHERE IN SRNNH OR INTERIOR SOUTHERN ME.SNOWFALL RATES COULD APPROACH 2 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES LATERFRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE BEFORE ANY CHANGEOVEROCCURS.THOUGHT ABOUT ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH FOR ROCKINGHAM COUNTY NH...BUTCONFIDENCE IN MOSTLY RAIN THERE IS NOT PARTICULARLYHIGH...ESPECIALLY WITH THE 12Z ECMWF GOING COLDER THERE. WILLSTILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR STREET FLOODING IN ROCKINGHAM COUNTY...ANDPERHAPS PARTS OF YORK COUNTY.AS FAR AS WINDS GO...COULD GET GUSTY FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR A TIMEFRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE WAKE OF THESYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 Great write up by Ekster, enjoy FRIDAY/S SYSTEM REMAINS VERY TOUGH TO FORECAST IN TERMS OF WHERETHE PTYPE TRANSITION ZONE WILL BE. OVERALL...MUCH OF THE MODELSUITE HAS TRENDED A TICK SOUTH TODAY...AND THEREFORE SLIGHTLYCOLDER IN THE COLUMN ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA.AS A STRONG SOUTHERN STEAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THEWEST...SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS PA AND INTOSOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL LIKELY TRACK SOMEWHERESOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE. THIS WILL LOCK IN RELATIVELY COLD AIR ATTHE SFC FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE IMMEDIATECOAST FOR A TIME. HOWEVER...THIS IS A SOUTHWEST FLOW EVENT IN THEMID LEVELS /SWFE/ DUE TO AN OPEN WAVE OR A WEAKLY CLOSED LOWAPPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS OPENS UP THE DOOR FOR RELATIVELYWARM AIR TO ADVECT NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGHAXIS. SO EVEN THOUGH THE SFC MAY BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORTSNOW...WARM AIR ALOFT MAY ATTEMPT TO CHANGE THE PTYPE OVER TOSLEET /OR FZRA/ FOR A TIME FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. THIS IS THE HARDPART OF THE FORECAST...IE...HOW FAR NORTH DOES THE WARMER AIRALOFT ADVANCE. STRONG UPWARD OMEGA TENDS TO KEEP THE WARM AIR ATBAY...BUT SOMETIMES NOT COMPLETELY. SO THERE WILL BE A BATTLEGOING ON. RIGHT NOW...WE ARE FOLLOWING THE SLIGHTLY COLDER MODELTREND...AND THIS WILL BE REFLECTED IN OUR SNOWFALL FORECAST...BUTSTILL KEEP MENTION OF SOME SLEET AND FZRA.AFTER REVIEWING THE LATEST MODEL DATA...WE DIDN/T END UP CHANGINGTHE FORECAST MUCH...AND DIDN/T CHANGE THE WARNINGS/ADVISORIES ATALL. WE KEPT THE MENTION OF THE CHANCE OF SLEET OR FZRA IN WITHTHE SNOW /HEAVY AT TIMES/ ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THECWA...ROUGHLY FROM KLEB TO KWVL AND SOUTH. THIS DUE TO THEAFOREMENTIONED REASONING...IE...SWFE CLIMO.THOUGHT ABOUT UPGRADING PORTIONS OF THE COAST TO A WARNINGTOO...BUT HELD OFF FOR NOW. THIS INCLUDES PORTLAND. WILL CONTINUEWITH HIGH-END ADVISORY THERE...BUT COULD SEE WARNING SNOWS EVENTHERE WITH A PRETTY INTENSE THUMP OF SNOWFALL RATES PRECEDING ANYWARM AIR INTRUSION ALOFT OR AT THE SURFACE. CONFIDENCE NOT QUITEHIGH ENOUGH TO UPGRADE TO WARNING THERE YET. HOWEVER...WILLMENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE WSW PRODUCT.OTHERWISE...GENERALLY EXPECT AN 8-14 INCH SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF THEWARNING AREA. OBVIOUSLY...IF WARM AIR INTRUDES FURTHERNORTH...THEN AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THECWA...COULD BE LESS.THIS SHOULD BE A RELATIVELY WET SNOW CLOSER TO THECOAST...ESPECIALLY NEAR ANY TRANSITION ZONE. THIS COULD RESULT INSCT POWER OUTAGES...EVEN IN PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR. WE ARE NOTEXPECTED A LOT OF FREEZING RAIN OUT OF THIS SYSTEM.HOWEVER...THERE/S A CHANCE FOR A TENTH OR TWO JUST WEST OF THERAIN/SNOW LINE. IF THIS OCCURS IT WOULD PROBABLY SOMEWHERE IN SRNNH OR INTERIOR SOUTHERN ME.SNOWFALL RATES COULD APPROACH 2 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES LATERFRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE BEFORE ANY CHANGEOVEROCCURS.THOUGHT ABOUT ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH FOR ROCKINGHAM COUNTY NH...BUTCONFIDENCE IN MOSTLY RAIN THERE IS NOT PARTICULARLYHIGH...ESPECIALLY WITH THE 12Z ECMWF GOING COLDER THERE. WILLSTILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR STREET FLOODING IN ROCKINGHAM COUNTY...ANDPERHAPS PARTS OF YORK COUNTY.AS FAR AS WINDS GO...COULD GET GUSTY FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR A TIMEFRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE WAKE OF THESYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT. Was just getting ready to post that but you beat me to it, Great right up Eck..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
red Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Still no warnings up from CAR. Maybe they will with the afternoon update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Juju!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Bob might be close to the jackpot area. Man it could absolutely rip in spots. Maybe near or just north of LEB over to IZG or just north FTW?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Bob might be close to the jackpot area. Man it could absolutely rip in spots. Maybe near or just north of LEB over to IZG or just north FTW?? Talk dirty to me like that here at KLEB... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Bob might be close to the jackpot area. Man it could absolutely rip in spots. Maybe near or just north of LEB over to IZG or just north FTW?? How about me +bob = win??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Tkx scooter I'm just happy to be here to enjoy this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I'm kinda shocked that I may end up all snow for this. It'll probably be 10:1, but that's not too shabby with 1-1.25" QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Tkx scooter I'm just happy to be here to enjoy this. It looks good at first glance for you and Jay. Nice disco from Mike. The one thing I like about this, is that there appears to be a nice comma head near or maybe just north of you. That's gonna dump on the foothills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Looks like the GYX snow map was updated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Looks like the GYX snow map was updated. Hey, Eric....you're needed in the SNE thread to photoshop a picture of Pete on my picnic table (around 15 or 16 in the thread, I think). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Looks like the GYX snow map was updated. BTV updated theirs with increased numbers and upped the amounts in the warning too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Looks like the GYX snow map was updated. 6" where I am tonight and 3" 5 miles south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Looks like the GYX snow map was updated. Nice one for most of ME/NH--get out the snowblowers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 It looks good at first glance for you and Jay. Nice disco from Mike. The one thing I like about this, is that there appears to be a nice comma head near or maybe just north of you. That's gonna dump on the foothills. I was thinking just n & w of here would be the jackpot. Mikes disco spells it all out perfectly. You can never be 100% sure with these types of events. Always hedge your thoughts but put your best educated guess. All I know is someone within 20-30mi radius of me is going to get hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 A nice test for the ole AMEX WRF. Looks like 11-12" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Looks like the GYX snow map was updated. Post plz, tkx in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Yeah its very mild this is shortsleeve weather up here. Whats the timeline for heaviest snow? Im going over to Norwich in VT around 2 to pick up a buddy then down to exeter nh for the night. Should be a very fun treck across the whites via the kanc tomorrow!!!! Oh man that is going to be one helluva tough drive... that's about the time when most of VT and NH will be ripping 1-2"/hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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