tamarack Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Very unusual to see a 2-day stretch where each run looks better for MBY. GYX has the foothills progged for 10-14", most they're seeing for any zones. Their snow map puts the tallest stripe in the northern foothills, but still has MBY in the 10-11" range, which would easily be winter's biggest (so far...) And it's close enough to the event that bullseye probably doesn't equal kiss of death. Be nice to clean up the snowbanks; today is #16 w/o measurable snowfall. (Must.....not.....get.....excited.) After two days of busting high for minima (old tired snow surface), it was -8 at 6:45 this AM and probably approached -10, pretty close to the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 The 00z Euro and 12z NAM at first are similar, but the 00z euro is colder during the aftn, especially aloft. I posted these euro products below but here is also the NAM with sim radar and critical thicknesses. Note the NAM is a bit warmer. It also shows how tricky this setup is, because the mixing area may be rather small, since colder air is trying to work in at the same time. These are for 18z and 21z tomorrow. 12z NAM 00z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 that'll do pig, that'll do. I am trying not to get too excited and expecting a good snowfall but I could almost break out the Jean Claude Van Damne break dance video right about now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Scott I think that euro map you posted fits my quick thoughts I just posted? Critical thicknesses get up to about een up to portland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 HPC maps look north of GYX forecast and 12z Nam and 0Z Euro. Will trust what GYX meso skills vs. HPC broad brush in a situation like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 The 00z Euro and 12z NAM at first are similar, but the 00z euro is colder during the aftn, especially aloft. I posted these euro products below but here is also the NAM with sim radar and critical thicknesses. Note the NAM is a bit warmer. It also shows how tricky this setup is, because the mixing area may be rather small, since colder air is trying to work in at the same time. These are for 18z and 21z tomorrow. 12z NAM 00z Euro Scott, Thanks for sharing those maps, Its always tricky with the track being this close, As i had said earlier, Subtle shifts will make big differnces especially along the coast and the coastal plain, Based on those it stays cold for the most part right to the coast, Its that area that Eck and the rest at GYX will have there work cut out and earn there pay...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 HPC maps look north of GYX forecast and 12z Nam and 0Z Euro. Will trust what GYX meso skills vs. HPC broad brush in a situation like this. Yeah those HPC maps were from earlier this am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 HPC maps look north of GYX forecast and 12z Nam and 0Z Euro. Will trust what GYX meso skills vs. HPC broad brush in a situation like this. they are a few hours but I like the idea that the odds of someone near here getting over a foot seem to be going up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Scott I think that euro map you posted fits my quick thoughts I just posted? Critical thicknesses get up to about een up to portland? Well that yellow line may be close to the sleet line. I haven't dug into soundings or anything, but Mike might be right in that you might not know where it will mix until it starts. It's a very dynamic system with lots of convection. The convection alone may be enough to shift the storm track 20 miles or so either north or south. That's a very tough forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 This system also seems to be ramping up qpf as its trending stronger each run closer in then cutting back as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 Looks like 12z GFS had shifted slightly SE as well with its track, Looks like just the coastal areas may have changeover issues as it was all the way up just south of me at 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Looks like 12z GFS had shifted slightly SE as well with its track, Looks like just the coastal areas may have changeover issues as it was all the way up just south of me at 06z Yup, definitly good news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 Yup, definitly good news. Its also bumped qpf up as well, Brings 1.75" right to the ME border pretty sharp cuttof form there, Looks like 1.25" from close to my location NE up the imediate coast......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Looks like 12z GFS had shifted slightly SE as well with its track, Looks like just the coastal areas may have changeover issues as it was all the way up just south of me at 06z Give me a "hell yeah!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 This is what I mean by a possible narrow mix line. When the low and mid level critical thicknesses are close together, usually means a quick transition from ra/sn from se-nw. Also IZG sounding is saturated to 200mb! Could be an absolute pounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 This is what I mean by a possible narrow mix line. When the low and mid level critical thicknesses are close together, usually means a quick transition from ra/sn from se-nw. Also IZG sounding is saturated to 200mb! Could be an absolute pounding. Thanks scott Just based off the 12znam/gfs and 00z euro I am sitting pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Talk dirty to me, Scott. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 yeah, working today. This is gonna be on of those situations where we may not know far north the significant mix makes it until it starts happening. We'll take a stab though. Yeah, tough call for those areas on the fringe. Essentially the changes on the 12z NAM and 12z GFS are at the noise level to me (QPF remains the same, thermal profiles remain the same up here), but even 10 miles will make a huge difference for those on that line between significant mix and a maple mauler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Thanks scott Just based off the 12znam/gfs and 00z euro I am sitting pretty. Are you in N Conway this week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 This is what I mean by a possible narrow mix line. When the low and mid level critical thicknesses are close together, usually means a quick transition from ra/sn from se-nw. Also IZG sounding is saturated to 200mb! Could be an absolute pounding. Boy is that close, I am north of the red line and south of the yellow line.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Talk dirty to me, Scott. What are you wearing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Boy is that close, I am north of the red line and south of the yellow line.. Well these just give a quick and dirty idea. You still gotta look at soundings and go by gut instinct. I'm doing en-route wx which is more of inflight hazards like tstms and turbulence , so I haven't looked hard at NNE wx. Looke like Mike has his work cut out, but I'm sure he'll give it his best like he usually does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 What are you wearing? At this point next to nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 At this point next to nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Well these just give a quick and dirty idea. You still gotta look at soundings and go by gut instinct. I'm doing en-route wx which is more of inflight hazards like tstms and turbulence , so I haven't looked hard at NNE wx. Looke like Mike has his work cut out, but I'm sure he'll give it his best like he usually does. Another Ekster Epic tome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 Well these just give a quick and dirty idea. You still gotta look at soundings and go by gut instinct. I'm doing en-route wx which is more of inflight hazards like tstms and turbulence , so I haven't looked hard at NNE wx. Looke like Mike has his work cut out, but I'm sure he'll give it his best like he usually does. I am usually on the fence in these events, It will be close either way.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 Looking at soundings for the 12Z nam keeps me Mod snow for 12hrs, Warmest we get at H85 is -1.5, 12" all snow here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Man the mesos continue to be warm... luckily the RSM sucks because we dryslot and change over up here in N.VT... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Damn. The more I look at that map the more I think its going to be close for me. Tonight Im going to be 15 miles due west of where the 2.4" is on that map. Its going to be close between getting like 1" and getting 5-8". I think 1" is looking more likely unfortunately, but 10 miles N of where I am might be a different story. Hopefully this verifies slightly south due to dynamics keeping it snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I have always (and still am) a big fan of the old school ETA... its almost identical to the GFS I think. I really wish they just ran this model instead of the NAM, always thought the ETA was a solid model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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