eekuasepinniW Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Uh no, your synoptic season is about to drill you guys, Big March incoming Big Big March. Scott Winni spring mode in NNE before April??? I'm praying for a repeat of last March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 Looks like the Nam went slightly SE and is 4mb stronger from 06z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Looks like the Nam went slightly SE and is 4mb stronger from 06z... Is gud! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
red Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Looks like the Nam went slightly SE and is 4mb stronger from 06z... Perfect!! :snowman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 Is gud! Also pretty robust with the qpf, Brings the 1.25" line just to my south at 12z, Had 1.00" from just north of me to the coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 Perfect!! :snowman: Wet snow Bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Looks like the Nam went slightly SE and is 4mb stronger from 06z... Yeah, 12z NAM is a winner for everyone in NNE... Simpson/Allenson in Lebanon/Hanover area, Dendrite, you/Dryslot, Tamarack, sbos_wx, us N.VTers like J.Spin, mreaves, j24vt, borderwx, and looks good for even Mainejayhawk closer to the coast. Still liking GFL-RUT-LEB axis for a jackpot... continue that line into NH/ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Not going to be an easy forecast today, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 What did the srefs do? I'd check but I'm mobile and it's a pita. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 Not going to be an easy forecast today, that's for sure. Are you working? If you are you will have your hands full with how far the R/S line makes it inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 What did the srefs do? I'd check but I'm mobile and it's a pita. They're a bit colder but still relatively warm overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Not going to be an easy forecast today, that's for sure. Good luck man. With the WSW's going down almost to Manchester NH, do you think it will play out like that or is that if it trends colder? BOX has a WWA for 3-5" in Manchester, and (as you know) one town north there's a warning for 8-12" from Gray. Tight gradient. If you have time to answer what are your thoughts in the southern NH area up to Concord? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Are you working? If you are you will have your hands full with how far the R/S line makes it inland yeah, working today. This is gonna be on of those situations where we may not know far north the significant mix makes it until it starts happening. We'll take a stab though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Good luck man. With the WSW's going down almost to Manchester NH, do you think it will play out like that or is that if it trends colder? BOX has a WWA for 3-5" in Manchester, and (as you know) one town north there's a warning for 8-12" from Gray. Tight gradient. If you have time to answer what are your thoughts in the southern NH area up to Concord? I haven't formulated much in the way of new thoughts yet...just starting to digest some new data now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 What did the srefs do? I'd check but I'm mobile and it's a pita. They looked like they were slighty SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 yeah, working today. This is gonna be on of those situations where we may not know far north the significant mix makes it until it starts happening. We'll take a stab though. Typically, In these types it will either be just to my SE or go just to my NW, I am usually on the fence here as well as GYX's office, So even a subtle shift of 10-15 miles in track will have huge implications Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 They looked like they were slighty SE Ok, thanks Jeff and Ek. It's better than ripping even further north. Walking the tightrope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 Ok, thanks Jeff and Ek. It's better than ripping even further north. Walking the tightrope. Eric, 12z nam was better for you... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Eric, 12z nam was better for you... yeah, nam is all snow at GYX...and very close to all snow even at PWM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 yeah, working today. This is gonna be on of those situations where we may not know far north the significant mix makes it until it starts happening. We'll take a stab though. Perhaps a scenario where we have heavy wet snow during the heavier rates and then taint as it slows down. Maybe a quick heavy dump of 6-10, some taint and then an inch on the backend? 15 miles nnw of CON at 675ft. Good luck...no matter what you do someone will be thrilled with your incredible insightful performance and someone else will see you as the devil incarnate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 yeah, nam is all snow at GYX...and very close to all snow even at PWM. Yeah thanks Eck, We will see how GFS goes, Nam brings the 1.25" qpf just to my south, GFS had the lowest qpf and the Euro was pretty robust as well at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 The possibilities with this storm are very cool. One of us in the band from simpson to brian and I to Eric and Jeff is going to get a 12 inch heavy wet snow blitz...has that feel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 yeah, nam is all snow at GYX...and very close to all snow even at PWM. Wow, that's good news! Thanks for the updates guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 Perhaps a scenario where we have heavy wet snow during the heavier rates and then taint as it slows down. Maybe a quick heavy dump of 6-10, some taint and then an inch on the backend? 15 miles nnw of CON at 675ft. Good luck...no matter what you do someone will be thrilled with your incredible insightful performance and someone else will see you as the devil incarnate. Yeah Mark, There are always winners and losers in all these events, Can't even count how many times it was raining on one end of town here and snowing on the NW end, It happens a lot, A little elevation sometimes makes all the difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 The possibilities with this storm are very cool. One of us in the band from simpson to brian and I to Eric and Jeff is going to get a 12 inch heavy wet snow blitz...has that feel. Your right, I usually make out quite well in these type events..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 given the overnight runs and the nam I am feeling more optimistic....also good to see sref go cooler, moving in the right direction now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Winner, winner chicken dinner Mike. I haven't seen much model guidance this week. I just peeked at the 12z nam and the 850s which looked to traverse the me/nh/ma border. Gotta figure there's a sneaky warm layer below that. The system sounds pretty dynamic from what I've read. Mayer if the upper levels are strong enough it can keep this mostly frozen sn/pl just inland from the coast 15-20 miles and N&W of a portland to keene line. Just off the top of my head thoughts. I see GYX has a new recruit. OceanstWx. Congrats. Looking for some great discussions out of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 Usually comes down to a nowcast to see where the changeover occurs for the most part in these tricky events, I will have the level 3 radar up and when i start to see some 45 dbz echoes coming my way thats usually spells changeover here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Yeah, 12z NAM is a winner for everyone in NNE... Simpson/Allenson in Lebanon/Hanover area, Dendrite, you/Dryslot, Tamarack, sbos_wx, us N.VTers like J.Spin, mreaves, j24vt, borderwx, and looks good for even Mainejayhawk closer to the coast. Still liking GFL-RUT-LEB axis for a jackpot... continue that line into NH/ME. 12z NAM is very good for the Gore area and the southern dacks in general. Tough call to drive all that way just for Saturday basically, I have been going up almost every weknd for the past 2 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 yeah, nam is all snow at GYX...and very close to all snow even at PWM. Here's hoping for the NAM FTW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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