wxdudemike Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I think it is all the previous 6. Temps and everything. So the temp is shows for 1am is really 6 hours ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 So the temp is shows for 1am is really 6 hours ago? I thought the whole thing was previous 6. But temps you'd have to take the previous above freezing line and the figure out the average temp drop per hour or some crap. More work than I am gonna do. I could be wrong. I just always thought everything was previous 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherman5416 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I'm not 100% sure what I'm doing is correct, but I'm taking the rate of change of thicknesses over than 6 hour period, then seeing when it equals 540. Then I take that amount of time times the amount of QPF per hour (the number you see divided by 6), but that is assuming a changeover when the thicknesses hit 540 and a linear trend. That gives you about .42" all snow. Just realized twisterdata has NAM snowfall maps so this makes life easier http://www.twisterda...e&archive=false .42 snow definitely isn't too bad Thanks for the reply and the link, I have seen people post that map, but I never had the link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I thought the whole thing was previous 6. But temps you'd have to take the previous above freezing line and the figure out the average temp drop per hour or some crap. More work than I am gonna do. I could be wrong. I just always thought everything was previous 6. I think the QPF is the 6 hours from 7pm to 1am, then the temps are AT 1am. Luckily the computer model does the exact rain/snow calculations for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 .42 snow definitely isn't too bad Thanks for the reply and the link, I have seen people post that map, but I never had the link. Based on mos. You get at least .66 snow. I don't know what he's doing, but temps stay below freezing on both levels when the .58 falls the temps are below freezing clearly. So I gotta disagree with ya mike. You're logic of the .42 makes 0 sense to me. MON 7P 21-FEB -1.6 -1.4 1010 90 100 0.07 550 TUE 1A 22-FEB -6.3 -6.0 1012 88 99 0.58 546 TUE 7A 22-FEB -8.6 -7.1 1017 86 92 0.08 542 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 NAM pretty close to a decent snow here in Toledo... just need the northwest trend to commence. Would like to see it about 50 miles further northwest. I'm surprised CLE hasn't issued any watches yet... they're forecasting less than an inch of snow?!? It sure looks like at least part of their CWA should see 6"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 It's a firehose of sleet and zr here with temps hovering at 32. There's at least a half inch of sleet/ice accumulation where i brushed the initial snow away. This would have been an awesome snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Based on mos. You get at least .66 snow. I don't know what he's doing, but temps stay below freezing on both levels when the .58 falls the temps are below freezing clearly. So I gotta disagree with ya mike. You're logic of the .42 makes 0 sense to me. MON 7P 21-FEB -1.6 -1.4 1010 90 100 0.07 550 TUE 1A 22-FEB -6.3 -6.0 1012 88 99 0.58 546 TUE 7A 22-FEB -8.6 -7.1 1017 86 92 0.08 542 I just did a quick calculation 100% based off of the 1000-500mb thicknesses. When that .58" starts to fall thicknesses are above 540. But you're right the lower levels are below freezing so it starts out as something frozen. Hard to tell without a fcst sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carumba Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 NAM pretty close to a decent snow here in Toledo... just need the northwest trend to commence. Would like to see it about 50 miles further northwest. I'm surprised CLE hasn't issued any watches yet... they're forecasting less than an inch of snow?!? It sure looks like at least part of their CWA should see 6"+. The pattern this winter has not been one that yields snow for CLE so I'd say the trend is our friend here. We have had very little synoptic snow all winter, mostly all lake effect. The majority of systems have left NE Ohio in the frozen precip area but not positioned well for snow, just the other frozen junk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Clown maps have a lot for PIT so the lower levels must be cold enough for snow despite 1000-500mb thickness being above 540...Like I said, i was assuming 540 as a changeover. With that assumption, then the .42" makes sense Dilly. http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_60HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I just did a quick calculation 100% based off of the 1000-500mb thicknesses. When that .58" starts to fall thicknesses are above 540. But you're right the lower levels are below freezing so it starts out as something frozen. Hard to tell without a fcst sounding. Why are all the forecast outlets only calling for light snow showers tomorrow afternoon and night? The NAM shows .25" line from Toledo to Ashtabula County, with .5 to .75" along and south of a Findlay to Youngstown line. Would be all snow for northern Ohio with a low tracking from eastern Kentucky into northern Virginia and an arctic high over Ontario. That would be a 3-5" advisory type snow for the northern counties, and a 6-9" warning snow for the southern counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Why are all the forecast outlets only calling for light snow showers tomorrow afternoon and night? The NAM shows .25" line from Toledo to Ashtabula County, with .5 to .75" along and south of a Findlay to Youngstown line. Would be all snow for northern Ohio with a low tracking from eastern Kentucky into northern Virginia and an arctic high over Ontario. That would be a 3-5" advisory type snow for the northern counties, and a 6-9" warning snow for the southern counties. Well that run just came out like an hour ago... The last few runs have looked pretty bleak. Hopefully the GFS follows suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 The pattern this winter has not been one that yields snow for CLE so I'd say the trend is our friend here. We have had very little synoptic snow all winter, mostly all lake effect. The majority of systems have left NE Ohio in the frozen precip area but not positioned well for snow, just the other frozen junk. Burke has had 0.57" of liquid equivalent thus far this evening with a temp of 33. Talk about a slap in the face. This could have been a nice 10" storm. The sound of rain beating against the roof is something I haven't heard in a long time. Interestingly enough CLE and ANJ are the only two climate stations in the midwest running snowfall deficits. Considering quite a few stations in the Midwest are running 40-60% above normal for snowfall, it truly feels like we've been screwed here, particularly those of us not in the primary snow belt. It looks like the storm tomorrow has the potential to scoot just south of Cleveland as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Based on mos. You get at least .66 snow. I don't know what he's doing, but temps stay below freezing on both levels when the .58 falls the temps are below freezing clearly. So I gotta disagree with ya mike. You're logic of the .42 makes 0 sense to me. MON 7P 21-FEB -1.6 -1.4 1010 90 100 0.07 550 TUE 1A 22-FEB -6.3 -6.0 1012 88 99 0.58 546 TUE 7A 22-FEB -8.6 -7.1 1017 86 92 0.08 542 Clown maps have a lot for PIT so the lower levels must be cold enough for snow despite 1000-500mb thickness being above 540...Like I said, i was assuming 540 as a changeover. With that assumption, then the .42" makes sense Dilly. http://wxcaster4.com...UCHERA_60HR.gif Well however it all exactly shakes out, the area between US 30 and I-70 through E. Ohio and W. PA, is starting to look pretty decent for at least 4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Cautiously optimistic for tomorrow... another Feb. 5th surprise event here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 Well however it all exactly shakes out, the area between US 30 and I-70 through E. Ohio and W. PA, is starting to look pretty decent for at least 4". I hope, but it is only the nam showing it right now. Haven't gotten to look at the wrf. But the clown map gives me 4-6" and is one county from the 6-8" per nam.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 Gfs says go home nam. Way warmer from the start on the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Burke has had 0.57" of liquid equivalent thus far this evening with a temp of 33. Talk about a slap in the face. This could have been a nice 10" storm. The sound of rain beating against the roof is something I haven't heard in a long time. Interestingly enough CLE and ANJ are the only two climate stations in the midwest running snowfall deficits. Considering quite a few stations in the Midwest are running 40-60% above normal for snowfall, it truly feels like we've been screwed here, particularly those of us not in the primary snow belt. It looks like the storm tomorrow has the potential to scoot just south of Cleveland as well. Toledo Express has had .92" of liquid equivalent (.58" just the last 3 hours as bands of heavy rain and sleet have moved through) and a temp of 32 and all we have to show for it is an inch of slush on the grass... it's not even icy. I don't know why we're under a winter storm warning unless CLE is thinking the temps will fall later and everything will freeze over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Gfs says go home nam. Way warmer from the start on the gfs. Still looks like a good hit for northern Ohio. Low tracks to the southern tip of Ohio. High pressure holding firm in Ontario. At hour 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 Still looks like a good hit for northern Ohio. Low tracks to the southern tip of Ohio. High pressure holding firm in Ontario. At hour 24. Yea sickening. Perfect low track and no cold air for central OH. Could see 2" in zzv. Not sure how tight the gradient would be north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Still looks like a good hit for northern Ohio. Low tracks to the southern tip of Ohio. High pressure holding firm in Ontario. At hour 24. Edit -- just saw through hour 36. Pretty similar look to NAM; just not as juicy. Shows about 3-5" for most of northern Ohio, maybe 4-7" in the southern counties of CLE's CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Yea sickening. Perfect low track and no cold air for central OH. Could see 2" in zzv. Not sure how tight the gradient would be north. What's the temps look like at the surface in central Ohio? I wouldn't be surprised if some of that cold air tries to bleed down at the surface given the high in Ontario. Could there be some freezing rain mixed in with the rain and snow? Speaking of that gradient, that high looks like it's not gonna let the precip. get too far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 What's the temps look like at the surface in central Ohio? I wouldn't be surprised if some of that cold air tries to bleed down at the surface given the high in Ontario. Could there be some freezing rain mixed in with the rain and snow? Speaking of that gradient, that high looks like it's not gonna let the precip. get too far north. Forecast for me is tough. I'm in pit cwa, but cle is directly to my west. But the closest data I can get is zanesville, which is 35 miles se of me. So in a situation like this its tough to say for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 Accuwx has me getting 3-6" tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Both HRW models have NWOH/Northern OH getting about 6" (possibly more with ratios north, and more with higher QPF south) I'm still doubtful... but I have some hope. Of course, I may not have power tomorrow and I won't have to worry about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 Both HRW models have NWOH/Northern OH getting about 6" (possibly more with ratios north, and more with higher QPF south) I'm still doubtful... but I have some hope. Of course, I may not have power tomorrow and I won't have to worry about it Anything for coshocton county? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 So.. Nam gives me 5-6" Gfs gives me 8-12"(http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=ILN) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 EURO looks to be too warm for C. OH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 EURO looks to be too warm for C. OH Congrats FDY... .7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 Congrats FDY... .7" Again its possible the euro could be good for me. Mfd is all snow. Its hard to tell really for my location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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