RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Anyone got Euro qpf for PITT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 I have not had a 5+ snow either.. We nickled and dimed our way to that 29 inches of 2 here 3 here 4 here 5 here then 2 here yeah you get my drift.. Yeah we're at odds here, but in a friendly way If the snow works out, we'll both probably get it but someone will get more. If it works out...LOL Euro is a beauty. That is a good time range to start locking in also, but the things happening to give us that snow are so delicate (as usual for us ) that I would still be cautious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 Lol gfs now sucks and euro is good. Yesterday was the opposite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 15z sref Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Lets hope the explosive precip shield expands a bit so the areas just north of I 70 all the way to river get 5+ that would make all of us happy but reality sake if Cincy gets 8+ CBUS gets screwed.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 Lets hope the explosive precip shield expands a bit so the areas just north of I 70 all the way to river get 5+ that would make all of us happy but reality sake if Cincy gets 8+ CBUS gets screwed.... Im putting my cards on the 12z euro. Cinci gets screwed but central OH gets the first 4"+ snowfall of the season. We are gonna be at odds with this one. Sorry but, like you are with us up here, Im rooting for you to get screwed to the north lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 ILN not exactly impressed here. .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MODELS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT FOR THIS PERIOD WHICH GIVES SOME CONFIDENCE TO THIS FORECAST. A FRONT SAGGING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY WILL BRING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR RAIN SHOWERS. THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL TURN TO SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. I'm not sure what to think. The fact that the euro is bullish is the best news. I don't think you can assume a north trend with this one since it's on the heels of a frontrunner. In fact I would say a south shift might be the biggest concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 ILN not exactly impressed here. .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MODELS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT FOR THIS PERIOD WHICH GIVES SOME CONFIDENCE TO THIS FORECAST. A FRONT SAGGING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY WILL BRING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR RAIN SHOWERS. THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL TURN TO SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. I'm not sure what to think. The fact that the euro is bullish is the best news. I don't think you can assume a north trend with this one since it's on the heels of a frontrunner. In fact I would say a south shift might be the biggest concern. Yea, the afd's make it as though it's only one system. I think maybe they are just getting lazy? Our offices suck when it comes to afd's anyways. PIT MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING TRACK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY MONDAY AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY MONDAY NIGHT. GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN ECMWF IN DEVELOPMENT OF SECOND LOW OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT POTENTIAL FOR SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE IN FORM OF RAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES PEAK IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...THEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 LOL kinda says it all for central OH on the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 wth is wrong with the nam mos data on accuwx? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 one of these two scenarios for OH....i'm still 50/50 on which one. I'm willing to bet that the rain/snow line does NOT follow i-70...that would be something I don't think i ever recall. We (i-70 corridor) either get thumped or get shafted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 0z gfs continues the suckage from 6z.. that model sucks. Went from having nothing to big snow to nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 0z gfs continues the suckage from 6z.. that model sucks. Went from having nothing to big snow to nothing. It's comical the differences in the nam and gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 nam for zzv TUE 1A 22-FEB -2.1 -1.3 1000 93 100 0.42 542 542 TUE 7A 22-FEB -9.1 -12.4 1015 84 96 0.32 536 524 cmh MON 7P 21-FEB 0.9 1.4 1006 93 99 0.17 550 546 TUE 1A 22-FEB -3.2 -3.9 1002 93 100 0.46 540 538 TUE 7A 22-FEB -9.5 -12.3 1017 83 93 0.24 537 524 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 That 0z NAM run is just incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 It's comical the differences in the nam and gfs. the nam is much closer to the euro. that's a pretty strong indication that the gfs is out to lunch and will probably start playing catchup very soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 the nam is much closer to the euro. that's a pretty strong indication that the gfs is out to lunch and will probably start playing catchup very soon. That would be my best guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I wouldn't trust any models right now until after this first storm gets out of the way. Plus, trusting the NAM 60+ hrs out isn't a good idea either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 I wouldn't trust any models right now until after this first storm gets out of the way. Plus, trusting the NAM 60+ hrs out isn't a good idea either. Well considering that the euro is almost identical I think the nam is okay to trust at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 EURO also had a 1000 low in IN about 2 days earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Well considering that the euro is almost identical I think the nam is okay to trust at this point. canadian has a strip of 1.5" qpf just south of i-70. Looks a bit warm but when doesn't the canadian. The nogaps also brings heaviest precip right over ohio. Probably safe to say the gfs is bullsh/\t at this point being so far south and weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 0z GGEM came north. Looks rain for most of Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 0z GGEM came north. Looks rain for most of Ohio. if that's the case than there's virtually no snow with this thing because the precip cutoff north of OH is pretty sharp. I think this is a case of typical ggem being too warm. I would bet that there's snow in at least the northern half of that very heavy qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 ChicagoStorm in accuweather said the 0z Euro is a hair northwest from the 12z and a weaker SLP and QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Cold air arrives a tad too late for CMH MON 18Z 21-FEB 2.1 4.5 1010 75 56 0.02 554 546 TUE 00Z 22-FEB 0.1 0.9 1010 85 100 0.19 554 545 TUE 06Z 22-FEB -3.4 -0.6 1011 87 89 0.48 550 541 TUE 12Z 22-FEB -6.2 -5.2 1018 76 73 0.04 547 533 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 Cold air arrives a tad too late for CMH MON 18Z 21-FEB 2.1 4.5 1010 75 56 0.02 554 546 TUE 00Z 22-FEB 0.1 0.9 1010 85 100 0.19 554 545 TUE 06Z 22-FEB -3.4 -0.6 1011 87 89 0.48 550 541 TUE 12Z 22-FEB -6.2 -5.2 1018 76 73 0.04 547 533 I wouldn't say .75 of snow is too late. The .19 is marginal but the .48 is 100% snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 Models are flip flopping so bad it is horrible. 12z euro was great, the nam sucked and the gfs sucked. Now the euro is mediocre, the nam is awesome, and the gfs still sucks after it was the best 2 days ago. Just horrible modeling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 These models are a freaking joke. 6z nam now stays warm all the way up to mansfield. I'm done. Whatever happens, happens. It is obvious that the models just suck. Period. We won't know what's going to happen until the runs before it hits. Just a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 lol, really Dilly? Why won't you wait until the first storm goes through. My god, they aren't going to be perfect and consistent 70+ hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 These models are a freaking joke. 6z nam now stays warm all the way up to mansfield. I'm done. Whatever happens, happens. It is obvious that the models just suck. Period. We won't know what's going to happen until the runs before it hits. Just a joke. lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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