dilly84 Posted February 25, 2011 Author Share Posted February 25, 2011 I decided if I havent switched over by 2-3am I say it's over. 4 at the latest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Snow should be starting soon... HRRR/HIRESW runs showing 10"+ for BG/Sandusky/Lorain. Yeah, looking good for you down there. Wouldn't be surprised to see some 12"+ lollipops by tomorrow afternoon. I'm thinking I may be a bit too far north; hopefully, we can still eek out 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Yeah, looking good for you down there. Wouldn't be surprised to see some 12"+ lollipops by tomorrow afternoon. I'm thinking I may be a bit too far north; hopefully, we can still eek out 6". It's pretty much going to be a Sandusky-Lorain jackpot... good for Lorain as they haven't really gotten a good storm there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Here in Columbus we're still getting WAA aloft and the dew point is holding at 34. Still looking at a changeover to a mix by 6am or so IMO. Back edge of precip is moving fast (just like past few systems, models seem to be really bad at that) but I like that huge deform/ULL snow in IL. That will be our one chance at a couple inches. Models are still kind of split on whether it hits or not...0z NAM has a nice hit with 1.7" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 It's pretty much going to be a Sandusky-Lorain jackpot... good for Lorain as they haven't really gotten a good storm there. I don't know. I think the big winners will be northeast of CLE. I could see maybe 10-15 inches up that way -- maybe a few 20" totals in the usual snowbelt locales in the higher elevations of PA southeast of Erie. I've seen some people over in the other thread acting like this is going to be a bust. Not going to happen, if anything it will bust high for most areas. Although I could see it busting low here. These types of storms can really explode in a hurry. I remember in early April 2005, when I was back home, I went to bed around midnight. There was maybe a half inch of snow and it was lightly snowing and the storm was still pretty disorganized. I woke up eight or nine hours later and there was nearly a foot of snow, as a lake enhanced deformation band set up. The forecast which had called for an inch or less was upgraded to 6-12" after the storm ended. NW PA ended up with 2-3 feet of snow, as the snow lingered there through early afternoon. Even the 00z models, which earlier had been hinting at the possibility of heavy snow even though CLE ignored them, had dropped to only .25" here -- so they even busted terribly low on the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevin83 Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Gonna record the snowstorm from start to finish if anyone cares to watch. Im in fairlawn which is north of akron. Snow should be starting soon. http://www.ustream.tv/channel/ohiosnow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 25, 2011 Author Share Posted February 25, 2011 Pouring rain here. See the occasional wet flake hit the windshield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 I don't know if it's true (haven't looked out the window) but TWC local forecast just said moderate snow with 0.3 mile visibility here in Toledo. They're usually pretty good about automating the actual conditions. Sometimes they even seem to beat the conditions by a little bit -- like they'll say something and 15 minutes later it will be true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 I don't know if it's true (haven't looked out the window) but TWC local forecast just said moderate snow with 0.3 mile visibility here in Toledo. They're usually pretty good about automating the actual conditions. Sometimes they even seem to beat the conditions by a little bit -- like they'll say something and 15 minutes later it will be true. No, it's not true. Just a few flakes with barely any visibility restriction at all. It may have been snowing a little harder a little bit ago though, because it looked like some of the cars had a slight dusting. All of the virga must be tripping their system up -- there's probably 0.3 mile visibility several thousand feet above the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 25, 2011 Author Share Posted February 25, 2011 trying to change over to zr here. according to accuwx radar, ill be switching to snow soon. (black dot) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 25, 2011 Author Share Posted February 25, 2011 all I know is by looking at the radar the back edge in IN/IL better produce or this storm is gonna be a flop. No way this lasts through tomorrow like models were showing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Moderate snow has begun here... I expect it to turn heavy between 2-3 AM and continue through 7-8 AM, with lighter snows lingering until about noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 25, 2011 Author Share Posted February 25, 2011 EURO looks good my way FRI 06Z 25-FEB -0.1 0.8 1008 95 99 0.29 552 546 FRI 12Z 25-FEB -0.5 -0.3 999 95 98 0.89 543 543 FRI 18Z 25-FEB -1.3 -8.6 1013 79 93 0.21 538 528 SAT 00Z 26-FEB -4.5 -8.0 1022 84 49 0.01 541 524 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 EURO looks good my way FRI 06Z 25-FEB -0.1 0.8 1008 95 99 0.29 552 546 FRI 12Z 25-FEB -0.5 -0.3 999 95 98 0.89 543 543 FRI 18Z 25-FEB -1.3 -8.6 1013 79 93 0.21 538 528 SAT 00Z 26-FEB -4.5 -8.0 1022 84 49 0.01 541 524 Sometimes, you just gotta throw out the models and look at the actual weather. Sorry, man, but it's just not happening for you. You're too far south for any substantial snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 25, 2011 Author Share Posted February 25, 2011 Sometimes, you just gotta throw out the models and look at the actual weather. Sorry, man, but it's just not happening for you. You're too far south for any substantial snow. what radar are you looking at bud? Also didnt realize you were a met, so please dude, dont talk to me like I am stupid, or a little kid. No offense really irritates me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 25, 2011 Author Share Posted February 25, 2011 Intellicast GREarth And accuweather is switching me over as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 25, 2011 Author Share Posted February 25, 2011 MFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Dilly, why you getting so defensive? My god, he was making an opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 25, 2011 Author Share Posted February 25, 2011 Dilly, why you getting so defensive? My god, he was making an opinion. Because the wording he used made it sound like he was calling me stupid for posting the EURO numbers. Aside that you were in here when I posted it, so dont come trying to fuel the fire dude. I already messaged him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Snow has begun. Looking at the radar... I wonder if that convection down south isn't preventing the moisture from moving north. Radar is overall not that impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 25, 2011 Author Share Posted February 25, 2011 Snow has begun. Looking at the radar... I wonder if that convection down south isn't preventing the moisture from moving north. Radar is overall not that impressive. Pretty much what I was thinking. Unless that backside really hammers, I dont see how CLE is going to pick up all that much tbh. MFD is getting hammered. I cant believe youre just now snowing. Ive probably gotten 1/2 inch of rain already. Maybe more. By not that much I mean in terms of what models showed. I definitely think CLE gets at least 6" possibly more, but 6 is a given I believe. If I were you guys that radar would worry me though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 SN started about 20 minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Pretty much what I was thinking. Unless that backside really hammers, I dont see how CLE is going to pick up all that much tbh. MFD is getting hammered. I cant believe youre just now snowing. Ive probably gotten 1/2 inch of rain already. Maybe more. I'm a little concerned. But probably just tired and paranoid. I was expecting to see moisture streaming north but that's not the set up I guess. The moisture seems to be racing off to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 SN started about 20 minutes ago. How are you feeling about this one? The deform snows are really going to have to perform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 25, 2011 Author Share Posted February 25, 2011 I would worry about the dryslot streaming your way. That isnt good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 25, 2011 Author Share Posted February 25, 2011 everyone seems to like the GREarth radars, but no other radar has that big of a dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 25, 2011 Author Share Posted February 25, 2011 Just checked temps. 30.7 here now. Suprisingly enough no zr yet. I have to imagine with temp at 30.7 we would change over soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Yeah it definitely looks like a band from FWA to DFI to TOL is developing now... maybe something inbetween that and the Munice to Lima band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 25, 2011 Author Share Posted February 25, 2011 Radar isn't looking too spectacular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 25, 2011 Author Share Posted February 25, 2011 Hopefully this dryslot is a good thing for me. May allow the cold air to work in at 850 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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