dilly84 Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 Yea I know its high ratio, but still. Id take 6" of fluff over 2" of synoptic anytime. Now 6" of synoptic and 6" of les id take the synoptic. But les many times comes down so heavy who cares. South bend for example. 34" of les. That'd be sweet. Id take that over any 12" synoptic storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 As an FYI, 11" would be the 5th largest calendar day snowfall for CLE. Number 1 is 13.6". The timing of the storm may make it record book worthy. WRF destroys Cleveland with 20" Things are looking really good. I'd love to get into double digits but they way this winter has gone anything over 6" is a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Yea I know its high ratio, but still. Id take 6" of fluff over 2" of synoptic anytime. Now 6" of synoptic and 6" of les id take the synoptic. But les many times comes down so heavy who cares. South bend for example. 34" of les. That'd be sweet. Id take that over any 12" synoptic storm. Dilly - If you can, plan on making a trip up here next year for a LES event. They can be intense, but usually only for a short time. The locations that receive the heaviest snowfall are very small. So not everyone shares in the snow. It can be sunny and snow free IMBY... while less than 10 miles away its a whiteout with 12+ inches. Synoptic snows spread the wealth and are longer in duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 Dilly - If you can, plan on making a trip up here next year for a LES event. They can be intense, but usually only for a short time. The locations that receive the heaviest snowfall are very small. So not everyone shares in the snow. It can be sunny and snow free IMBY... while less than 10 miles away its a whiteout with 12+ inches. Synoptic snows spread the wealth and are longer in duration. It'd have to be a tug hill type of even for me to bother going.. So did the latest wrf go north or south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Things are looking really good. I'd love to get into to double digits but they way this winter has gone anything over 6" is a win. 6" will feel like a lot, let alone 10". The storm should start around 2 am. So to get a foot, we'd need it to snow 1 inch per hour til the storm leaves at 2 pm. The potential is there but I'm a bit skeptical. I'm just glad it's finally our turn this winter and any warning criteria snows that fall will be enjoyed. The point forecast FWIW shows 8-14". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 Lol according to the clown map, I am literally 20 minutes away from close to a foot of snow on the 18z nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 The more east you go across the south central part of the state the warmer. If you are north and west in Ohio you have a shot. The NAM is darn close for my area. Its going to be close but I would lean right now 75% rain 10% sleet/freezing rain 15% snow.... We'll see what the 18z GFS does here soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 6" will feel like a lot, let alone 10". The storm should start around 2 am. So to get a foot, we'd need it to snow 1 inch per hour til the storm leaves at 2 pm. The potential is there but I'm a bit skeptical. I'm just glad it's finally our turn this winter and any warning criteria snows that fall will be enjoyed. The point forecast FWIW shows 8-14". We can cheat and exceed inch per hour rates for a few hours, models are showing vigorous lift for a few hours late tonight and tomorrow morning so we could well see the 2" per hour rates CLE's warning mentions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 It'd have to be a tug hill type of even for me to bother going.. So did the latest wrf go north or south? lol... I think you would be quite happy with a strong event around here. White knuckle driving at its best. Not sure what the WRF showed. The local CLE WRF does not update regularly. Maybe Trent can share the link he uses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 We can cheat and exceed inch per hour rates for a few hours, models are showing vigorous lift for a few hours late tonight and tomorrow morning so we could well see the 2" per hour rates CLE's warning mentions. Forgot about that. If we can muster 3 hours of 2" rates, that'll definitely help us get closer. For those who do attempt to commute tomorrow, good luck. I envision something a la the December 8th storm traffic wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 GFS is south. Basically 6" for CLE with better amounts across route 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Yeah this will be quite interesting to watch.... Could see lots of rain at 33 degrees! HAO FRI 00Z 25-FEB 2.4 4.6 1013 98 89 0.06 558 548 FRI 06Z 25-FEB 0.5 2.6 1002 98 98 1.06 553 551 FRI 12Z 25-FEB -1.8 -2.7 1002 97 96 0.54 541 538 FRI 18Z 25-FEB -0.3 -7.2 1018 88 75 0.03 543 529 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheezemm Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Akron/Canton airport is down to 34 degrees...today's high looks to have been 37, that's 4 short of the forecasted high. We're already down to 34 with a forecasted low of 29 tonight....we'll see what happens, but things are looking ok, now if we don't get dryslotted! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 hmm cmh looks like they may be getting nailed FRI 06Z 25-FEB 0.7 2.3 1006 98 99 0.57 553 548 FRI 12Z 25-FEB -0.2 -2.7 998 97 100 0.94 541 542 FRI 18Z 25-FEB -1.4 -7.9 1015 92 94 0.10 539 528 SAT 00Z 26-FEB -3.8 -7.5 1023 95 45 0.01 543 526 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Yeah this will be quite interesting to watch.... Could see lots of rain at 33 degrees! HAO FRI 00Z 25-FEB 2.4 4.6 1013 98 89 0.06 558 548 FRI 06Z 25-FEB 0.5 2.6 1002 98 98 1.06 553 551 FRI 12Z 25-FEB -1.8 -2.7 1002 97 96 0.54 541 538 FRI 18Z 25-FEB -0.3 -7.2 1018 88 75 0.03 543 529 Do you have CMH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 CLE issues watch 1 county to my west ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE THE TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW. THIS MIX WILL CAUSE LOWER AMOUNTS OF SNOW. HOWEVER ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO AT LEAST 15 TO 25 MPH. THIS WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOWFALL. here is my point forecast from PIT High of 33 Tonight: Rain. Low around 33. North wind between 5 and 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Friday: Rain and snow, becoming all snow after noon. High near 33. Breezy, with a north wind between 11 and 21 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I guess I have been out of the net for awhile...just looked at nws page and delaware county is now under a wwa for up to 6" snow. Not bad. Marion is expecting possibly a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 funny thing is, minus the flood watch, this is exactly how the last storm looked except the warnings were advisories. But counties north and west of me were under one and I wasnt til, it had already flipped to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 It's going to be awesome watching areas to the north get hammered and us getting mostly rain changing to a bit of slop at the end. Really, it's fantastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 It's going to be awesome watching areas to the north get hammered and us getting mostly rain changing to a bit of slop at the end. Really, it's fantastic. At least it's not a last minute surprise. Most of us knew this was going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Temperature slowly dropping to just under 32 here in delaware. If this holds might not see any rain but start right with the ice and then snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 25, 2011 Author Share Posted February 25, 2011 Sucks models showing 10-20" not even 25 minutes away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iluvsnow Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Sucks models showing 10-20" not even 25 minutes away Hey Mad...what does the 18Z GFS show for Day? Thanks....keep the trend going...south baby south!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerbs Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Temp has dropped 4F since 18Z here...Got a good feel for the possibility of some good snows around here............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 25, 2011 Author Share Posted February 25, 2011 Dropped 3 here. Still way too warm 37 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Dropped 3 here. Still way too warm 37 Cold air is on the way south. 31 IMBY... stiff NE breeze. I still think a few areas on the southern edge are going to have some surprises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheezemm Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Cold air is on the way south. 31 IMBY... stiff NE breeze. I still think a few areas on the southern edge are going to have some surprises. I can validate it's not too far from you Dilly......I'm at the Summit/Stark border and have dropped pretty quickly since about 3pm. We're down to 31.6 IMBY, I hope that it can continue that way! I hope to stay up for the onset of precip to see what we're looking at. Has anyone got a link to critical thickness maps handy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Cold air is on the way south. 31 IMBY... stiff NE breeze. I still think a few areas on the southern edge are going to have some surprises. Yeah, the RUC is showing decent snows into parts of Central Ohio. As usual, this storm will end up moving much faster than thought yesterday. Snow should be tapering down in CLE by 10-11am. I think 8-9" is a safe call for Cuyahoga County. Anything more would just be a bonus. In situations where the models are outputting more than .75" for snow, I've found it best to cut 30% and assume a 10:1 ratio to get a realistic estimate of what will fall in the general area. However, I am hoping that as the low moves on by there's a quick burst of lake enhancement at the end. Central Lake Erie is open for business, but I'm not sure of the parameters for enhancement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 25, 2011 Author Share Posted February 25, 2011 Down to 34. 1 degree from our forecasted low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 So um, is the temp supposed to rise when the precip gets here? It's 34F at OSU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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