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February 24-25 OV/IN/PIT Winter Storm

dilly84

By dilly84,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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NEOH

NEOH

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12z WRFs:

NMM shows 1.5" - locally 2.5" liquid total precip over the CLE area.

ARW shows 1.25" to locally 1.5" liquid total precip over the CLE area.

H85 low passes to the south.

Eye Candy

Beautiful. Even if that is way overdone it is still huge. The low staying to the south is perfect. Looked like it came overhead yesterday.

Good year for LES out in Chesterland? Been ok here in Lyndhurst. Can't complain. We had the one good WNW event... other than that alot of nickles and dimes.

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dilly84

dilly84

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What's the Euro QPF for CLE?

FRI 06Z 25-FEB -1.8 -1.0 1012 86 58 0.01 550 541

FRI 12Z 25-FEB -2.2 -2.1 1001 93 100 0.66 542 541

FRI 18Z 25-FEB -2.4 -8.6 1009 87 97 0.47 535 528

SAT 00Z 26-FEB -6.1 -7.6 1020 82 59 0.03 537 521

all that snow only to get washed away 2 days later

MON 00Z 28-FEB -1.0 4.8 1012 89 73 0.01 557 548

MON 06Z 28-FEB 3.2 8.8 1006 87 45 0.03 560 554

MON 12Z 28-FEB 8.6 11.4 997 97 82 0.54 557 560

MON 18Z 28-FEB 10.3 10.1 992 98 97 0.64 551 558

TUE 00Z 01-MAR 1.5 0.6 998 92 74 0.50 541 543

TUE 06Z 01-MAR -2.2 -9.0 1016 83 4 0.17 545 533

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Trent

Trent

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FRI 06Z 25-FEB -1.8 -1.0 1012 86 58 0.01 550 541

FRI 12Z 25-FEB -2.2 -2.1 1001 93 100 0.66 542 541

FRI 18Z 25-FEB -2.4 -8.6 1009 87 97 0.47 535 528

SAT 00Z 26-FEB -6.1 -7.6 1020 82 59 0.03 537 521

all that snow only to get washed away 2 days later

MON 00Z 28-FEB -1.0 4.8 1012 89 73 0.01 557 548

MON 06Z 28-FEB 3.2 8.8 1006 87 45 0.03 560 554

MON 12Z 28-FEB 8.6 11.4 997 97 82 0.54 557 560

MON 18Z 28-FEB 10.3 10.1 992 98 97 0.64 551 558

   TUE 00Z 01-MAR 1.5 0.6 998 92 74 0.50 541 543

   TUE 06Z 01-MAR -2.2 -9.0 1016 83 4 0.17 545 533

Wow. A lot of model agreement for a foot of snow here.

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dayton1996

dayton1996

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Alright!

I need help here. What do these numbers mean? How do you interpret them?

I know the airport codes, and I'm guessing that the negative numbers may be atmospheric temps etc.

Yes

I'm a weenie, but I love the weather and I lurk here all the time. Help a brother out :)

FRI 06Z 25-FEB -1.8 -1.0 1012 86 58 0.01 550 541

FRI 12Z 25-FEB -2.2 -2.1 1001 93 100 0.66 542 541

FRI 18Z 25-FEB -2.4 -8.6 1009 87 97 0.47 535 528

SAT 00Z 26-FEB -6.1 -7.6 1020 82 59 0.03 537 521

all that snow only to get washed away 2 days later

MON 00Z 28-FEB -1.0 4.8 1012 89 73 0.01 557 548

MON 06Z 28-FEB 3.2 8.8 1006 87 45 0.03 560 554

MON 12Z 28-FEB 8.6 11.4 997 97 82 0.54 557 560

MON 18Z 28-FEB 10.3 10.1 992 98 97 0.64 551 558

TUE 00Z 01-MAR 1.5 0.6 998 92 74 0.50 541 543

TUE 06Z 01-MAR -2.2 -9.0 1016 83 4 0.17 545 533

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NEOH

NEOH

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FRI 06Z 25-FEB -1.8 -1.0 1012 86 58 0.01 550 541

FRI 12Z 25-FEB -2.2 -2.1 1001 93 100 0.66 542 541

FRI 18Z 25-FEB -2.4 -8.6 1009 87 97 0.47 535 528

SAT 00Z 26-FEB -6.1 -7.6 1020 82 59 0.03 537 521

all that snow only to get washed away 2 days later

MON 00Z 28-FEB -1.0 4.8 1012 89 73 0.01 557 548

MON 06Z 28-FEB 3.2 8.8 1006 87 45 0.03 560 554

MON 12Z 28-FEB 8.6 11.4 997 97 82 0.54 557 560

MON 18Z 28-FEB 10.3 10.1 992 98 97 0.64 551 558

TUE 00Z 01-MAR 1.5 0.6 998 92 74 0.50 541 543

TUE 06Z 01-MAR -2.2 -9.0 1016 83 4 0.17 545 533

Thanks for the Euro info Dilly. Next week is ugly. Wow that's warm. One storm at a time...

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dilly84

dilly84

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Alright!

I need help here. What do these numbers mean? How do you interpret them?

I know the airport codes, and I'm guessing that the negative numbers may be atmospheric temps etc.

Yes

I'm a weenie, but I love the weather and I lurk here all the time. Help a brother out :)

1st number 2m temps.

2nd number 850 mb temps

3rd surface pressure,

4th surface humidity,

5th 700mb humidity,

6th 6hr qpf,

7th 500mb heights

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NEOH

NEOH

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Not likely but thanks. you probably have a better chance. I need a 20-30 mile SE shift to get in the 10" range. That close does sicken a person lol.

HRRR has been subtly trending SE with the heaviest snow axis as you showed. You are going to be riding one fine line.... but the trend is your friend.

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Trent

Trent

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What will CLE go with? I'm guessing 6-10". The QPF eye candy totals do have me excited for a significant snow event, but I'm trying not to get myself hyped up too much. The Euro with ratios would be an incredible storm for Cleveland

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NEOH

NEOH

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What will CLE go with? I'm guessing 6-10". The QPF eye candy totals do have me excited for a significant snow event, but I'm trying not to get myself hyped up too much. The Euro with ratios would be an incredible storm for Cleveland

6-10" seems reasonable... but definitely on the low side if you go with the model QPF. Not out the question to see them go with 8-12".

The one positive for higher snowfall is that there will not be much, if any , QPF wasted on rain. We didn't warm near as much as I thought we would today. Temps are sitting around 33-35 so we will be safely below freezing when the precip starts.

I'm pretty hyped about this storm. I can actually see the lakeshore areas being on the Northern fringe of the heaviest snow band.

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NEOH

NEOH

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well there isnt much time left for trends. 18z is going to have to show something.

You should like this blurb from CLE since you are on the southern fringe of the FA.

FIRST GLANCE AT THE NEW MODEL RUNS INDICATE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THIS MAY LEAD TO HIGHER AMOUNTS STARTING THIS EVENING AND A TAD FURTHER SOUTH. WILL LOOK AT THE OTHER MODELS BEFORE ADJUSTING THE FORECAST

MUCH AT THIS TIME. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER CHANGES.

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dilly84

dilly84

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You should like this blurb from CLE since you are on the southern fringe of the FA.

FIRST GLANCE AT THE NEW MODEL RUNS INDICATE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THIS MAY LEAD TO HIGHER AMOUNTS STARTING THIS EVENING AND A TAD FURTHER SOUTH. WILL LOOK AT THE OTHER MODELS BEFORE ADJUSTING THE FORECAST

MUCH AT THIS TIME. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER CHANGES.

yea, but a tad isnt enough I need 20-30 miles. preferably 30 to be safe lol.. that isnt a small shift this close to the event. Unless we get another February 5th deal lol.

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NEOH

NEOH

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6-10" seems reasonable... but definitely on the low side if you go with the model QPF. Not out the question to see them go with 8-12".

The one positive for higher snowfall is that there will not be much, if any , QPF wasted on rain. We didn't warm near as much as I thought we would today. Temps are sitting around 33-35 so we will be safely below freezing when the precip starts.

I'm pretty hyped about this storm. I can actually see the lakeshore areas being on the Northern fringe of the heaviest snow band.

:popcorn: CLE went with 6-10. Isolated 12"

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING

TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NEAR A PATH FROM CINCINNATI TO YOUNGSTOWN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR MIDNIGHT AND COULD MIX WITH SOME SLEET OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN INITIALLY. THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 5 AM AND 10 AM WHEN SNOWFALL RATES COULD REACH 2 INCHES PER HOUR.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON OF 6 TO 10 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY SEE AMOUNTS APPROACHING A FOOT. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BY FRIDAY MORNING TO AT LEAST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. THIS WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOWFALL.

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Trent

Trent

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:popcorn: CLE went with 6-10. Isolated 12"

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING

TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NEAR A PATH FROM CINCINNATI TO YOUNGSTOWN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR MIDNIGHT AND COULD MIX WITH SOME SLEET OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN INITIALLY. THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 5 AM AND 10 AM WHEN SNOWFALL RATES COULD REACH 2 INCHES PER HOUR.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON OF 6 TO 10 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY SEE AMOUNTS APPROACHING A FOOT. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BY FRIDAY MORNING TO AT LEAST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. THIS WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOWFALL.

As an FYI, 11" would be the 5th largest calendar day snowfall for CLE. Number 1 is 13.6". The timing of the storm may make it record book worthy. WRF destroys Cleveland with 20"

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cheezemm

cheezemm

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Guess I don't see the difference in synoptic and les. Lol. Snow is snow for gods sake.

Dilly, I'm near the Stark/Summity County border, so I may be in the same boat as you. It's going to be close, but I think if I were 10 miles further North into Akron, I'd get to see the big snow. We'll see what time the precip turns over this evening, keep your fingers crossed!

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Trent

Trent

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Guess I don't see the difference in synoptic and les. Lol. Snow is snow for gods sake.

Consistency of snow. 6" of LES is like 2" from a system snow storm. Its hard to explain it unless you live in a snow belt. 6" of LES is just 2" of system snow that is fluffed up.

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