dilly84 Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 Wow the Hi-res NMM shows 7-10" of rain in parts of Kentucky. Hopefully that translates north into the colder air. Jesus. No one wants that. Post link or image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Jesus. No one wants that. Post link or image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 Ehh I don't wanna see that for anyone. The flooding would be monumental. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Ehh I don't wanna see that for anyone. The flooding would be monumental. Those hi-res models tend to be too wet in heavy qpf situations. Not saying it won't happen but something to consider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 Those hi-res models tend to be too wet in heavy qpf situations. Not saying it won't happen but something to consider. Yea, I was just saying. No one wants to see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Lots of Cleveland love on the NAM. T minus 18 hours til snow starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 Nam is colder. +1 over here. So close. Just need the system to be a little slower. Mansfield gets hammered on the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Lots of Cleveland love on the NAM. T minus 18 hours til snow starts. Just had a chance to look at the 12z runs... was expecting the worst. Nice to see them trending back south. Very nice... couldn't be any better for this area. Time to sit back and watch things play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 At this point there's no reason to think the GFS is done trending so if you're on the southern edge of the heavy snow band on the GFS, I'd probably be prepared for disappointment. Still feeling pessimistic about northward trends after the 12z runs? Looks like LAF gets a nice hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Were darn close here once we get on the backside of the low it could get interesting here. FRI 06Z 25-FEB 1.1 4.4 1002 98 99 0.81 554 552 FRI 12Z 25-FEB 0.2 -0.3 1000 98 96 0.82 540 541 FRI 18Z 25-FEB -0.2 -7.0 1018 86 53 0.04 544 530 Could get something simiar to what Dilly had where we fight to go over to snow and we eventually do but when it changes it comes down hard for several hours. Adding up to around 3-4 inches. We shall see! NAM was darn close too! Were at about 35-36 here right now and the EURO for example is going to bust on 2m temperatures. Last night we had 36 degrees with lots of thunder and lots of flashes.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 12z NAM definitely colder, keeps DAY all frozen now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 Well 30 miles south and I'm in the 12-14" range, right now I'm in the 1-2. So if this is a trend. I could definitely get in the heavy band. Still plenty of time. Stuck at 35 here too, so probably going to bust on temps again today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Would love to see about a 20 mile last minute NW trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Would love to see about a 20 mile last minute NW trend. U are greedy! I want a 20 mile SW trend.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Just had a chance to look at the 12z runs... was expecting the worst. Nice to see them trending back south. Very nice... couldn't be any better for this area. Time to sit back and watch things play out. NAM and GFS look great for CLE. Barring any sort of major shifts, we should have 6+ . Will be a fun commute tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I don't get this. The NWS said this morning 3-7" for the area tonite and 1-3" for tomorrow. During their mid-morning update, they downgraded tonite's accumulation to 1-3" Personally, I think it's an error on the part of the computer that generates the point forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Still feeling pessimistic about northward trends after the 12z runs? Looks like LAF gets a nice hit. Feeling better than last night for sure. I'm glad I won't need to pay out $10 to everyone on this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 Damn a 20-30mi se shift would put me in the heavy stuff.. come on last minute shift. 20 -30 miles isn't much to ask for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
golfer1973 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I don't get this. The NWS said this morning 3-7" for the area tonite and 1-3" for tomorrow. During their mid-morning update, they downgraded tonite's accumulation to 1-3" Personally, I think it's an error on the part of the computer that generates the point forecast. We are under a watch here and they did the same thing to our county, however the county to our north is in the warning and the urgent weather message spells out the same totals. I'm guessing we go to a warning later today. If I'm understanding everyone correctly and this thing is trending south than we should end up with more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 U are greedy! I want a 20 mile SW trend.... You'd want a se trend to. West puts you more at risk of warm air. Se almost guarantees snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 You'd want a se trend to. West puts you more at risk of warm air. Se almost guarantees snow. LOL SE I mean!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 We are under a watch here and they did the same thing to our county, however the county to our north is in the warning and the urgent weather message spells out the same totals. I'm guessing we go to a warning later today. If I'm understanding everyone correctly and this thing is trending south than we should end up with more snow. Yeah, in the CLE AFD, or in the WSW text, they were originally saying that the closer to the Lakeshore you were, the better chance of seeing heavier snow. So I would think the totals, would increase to reflect the southward trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I don't get this. The NWS said this morning 3-7" for the area tonite and 1-3" for tomorrow. During their mid-morning update, they downgraded tonite's accumulation to 1-3" Personally, I think it's an error on the part of the computer that generates the point forecast. It's unfortunate that the NWS came out with the point forecasts. The accuracy and the public's perception of accuracy has been reduced versus the standard written county forecast. There are too many glitches and errors with the forecasts now. There appears to be a heightened cry wolf syndrome in Cleveland with this particular storm. I think many will be surprised how bad it will be come 7 am tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 NAM and GFS look great for CLE. Barring any sort of major shifts, we should have 6+ . Will be a fun commute tomorrow! There are always surprises with storms. But I really don't see any major shifts happening. Seems like the models have come to a consensus. 6-10 seems like a real possiblity. I'm not sure how much open water there is on the lake but once the winds come around northerly there could be some decent enhancement for a short time. I'm taking a much needed vacation day so at least I'll avoid the commute. Colder than I expected today. I thought for sure the ice and snow would be melted before the storm but its not looking that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 The doctor has gone colder! DAY FRI 06Z 25-FEB 1.4 1.8 1005 96 100 0.54 553 549 FRI 12Z 25-FEB -1.8 -0.6 1000 93 88 1.04 542 542 FRI 18Z 25-FEB -2.3 -7.3 1016 79 75 0.23 542 529 HAO FRI 06Z 25-FEB 3.3 3.4 1003 97 100 0.70 554 552 FRI 12Z 25-FEB 0.5 0.6 999 96 55 1.01 543 543 FRI 18Z 25-FEB 0.0 -7.0 1017 70 64 0.14 544 530 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 HPC map shows a slight chance of 12+ inch snow right along the lakeshore. I think with the south trend, that area would cover more of metro cleveland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 HPC map shows a slight chance of 12+ inch snow right along the lakeshore. I think with the south trend, that area would cover more of metro cleveland. Good to see you made it over here. Little nugget from CLE for those on the southern fringe (DILLY) - FIRST GLANCE AT THE NEW MODEL RUNS INDICATE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THIS MAY LEAD TO HIGHER AMOUNTS STARTING THIS EVENING AND A TAD FURTHER SOUTH. WILL LOOK AT THE OTHER MODELS BEFORE ADJUSTING THE FORECAST MUCH AT THIS TIME. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER CHANGES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 12z WRFs: NMM shows 1.5" - locally 2.5" liquid total precip over the CLE area. ARW shows 1.25" to locally 1.5" liquid total precip over the CLE area. H85 low passes to the south. Eye Candy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 The doctor has gone colder! DAY FRI 06Z 25-FEB 1.4 1.8 1005 96 100 0.54 553 549 FRI 12Z 25-FEB -1.8 -0.6 1000 93 88 1.04 542 542 FRI 18Z 25-FEB -2.3 -7.3 1016 79 75 0.23 542 529 HAO FRI 06Z 25-FEB 3.3 3.4 1003 97 100 0.70 554 552 FRI 12Z 25-FEB 0.5 0.6 999 96 55 1.01 543 543 FRI 18Z 25-FEB 0.0 -7.0 1017 70 64 0.14 544 530 what is HAO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Good to see you made it over here. Little nugget from CLE for those on the southern fringe (DILLY) - FIRST GLANCE AT THE NEW MODEL RUNS INDICATE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THIS MAY LEAD TO HIGHER AMOUNTS STARTING THIS EVENING AND A TAD FURTHER SOUTH. WILL LOOK AT THE OTHER MODELS BEFORE ADJUSTING THE FORECAST MUCH AT THIS TIME. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER CHANGES. Thanks! Hopefully they will fix the point forecasts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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