JayPSU Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Ya know there are cleveland posters here, toledo, etc. So just because it isnt "our" storm means nothing. North of I-70 gets snow if it decides to shift south by 30 - 40 miles. As we stand right now, northern 1/4 of the state sees mostly snow. So until it shows them getting nothing, this thread will stay alive. Ok, well to our Toledo and Cleveland posters, enjoy! This is your storm! South of I-30, get out the umbrellas and ponchos, it's going to be a rainy couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Ya know there are cleveland posters here, toledo, etc. So just because it isnt "our" storm means nothing. North of I-70 gets snow if it decides to shift south by 30 - 40 miles. As we stand right now, northern 1/4 of the state sees mostly snow. So until it shows them getting nothing, this thread will stay alive. From Findley to Cleveland North is where the snow will be south of that its going to be rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 At this point there's no reason to think the GFS is done trending so if you're on the southern edge of the heavy snow band on the GFS, I'd probably be prepared for disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 From Findley to Cleveland North is where the snow will be south of that its going to be rain. we''ll see.. so far I am busting big time on temps for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 we''ll see.. so far I am busting big time on temps for today. It's not because of more cold air being around or less warm air than forecasted, it's because there was more cloud cover than forecasted. BIG difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 It's not because of more cold air being around or less warm air than forecasted, it's because there was more cloud cover than forecasted. BIG difference. busted by close to 10° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 busted by close to 10° 12F here. None the less, those of us south of I-30 are getting almost all rain with maybe a touch of ZR at the beginning and a touch of slop at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 12F here. None the less, those of us south of I-30 are getting almost all rain with maybe a touch of ZR at the beginning and a touch of slop at the end. Like I said we'll see I wont be shocked to see a last second shift south like with this last storm. Wont take much. But something to watch at least.. You seem like you have some pinned up frustration, you should buy my drum kit I have for sale. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Like I said we'll see I wont be shocked to see a last second shift south like with this last storm. Wont take much. But something to watch at least.. You seem like you have some pinned up frustration, you should buy my drum kit I have for sale. lol As long as there's no Dilly meltdown about the models, the storm, the winter, central ohio, ect. when this thing very predictably ends up rain for those of us south of I-30, I'll be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 At this point there's no reason to think the GFS is done trending so if you're on the southern edge of the heavy snow band on the GFS, I'd probably be prepared for disappointment. Well said. That is usually the case and I suspect it will be this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 12F here. None the less, those of us south of I-30 are getting almost all rain with maybe a touch of ZR at the beginning and a touch of slop at the end. Sad, but true. I still see a chance for an inch or two at the end, but that is it and assuming we drop below freezing in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 As long as there's no Dilly meltdown about the models, the storm, the winter, central ohio, ect. when this thing very predictably ends up rain for those of us south of I-30, I'll be good. Nah. Im getting to the point of not caring now. It's been close the entire time for me. so I knew it could go either way. Its getting late in the season, so I dont care either way now. Hell Im down to around 3" now due to sun angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 gfs keeps me hanging on by a thread. Thing needs to be like 30 miles south to put me in the 6-8" range and 50 miles to be in the 8-10" range. so its pretty hard for me to give in just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 From Findley to Cleveland North is where the snow will be south of that its going to be rain. Thanks for your input. That very well may be the case. Do you have any reasoning behind this? Haven't see a lot of thoughtful analysis from you like the other Mets provide. Or is this just a casual observation that you wanted to share with folks on the fringe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Looks like the models are finally starting to resolve the convective feedback issues and showing more of a deformation axis across NW Ohio and SE Michigan as you would expect with a low tracking into western Pennsylvania. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 This looks like a snow or no type of a setup -- shouldn't be too much of an ice threat, I wouldn't think. Maybe a small zone of sleet and ZR but there's just not a lot of cold air to start off with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Huge differences between the 18z NAM and GFS. NAM = 1.8 snow, GFS = 8.1... going off of bufkit. Always riding a fine line here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Thanks for your input. That very well may be the case. Do you have any reasoning behind this? Haven't see a lot of thoughtful analysis from you like the other Mets provide. Or is this just a casual observation that you wanted to share with folks on the fringe? This will be a winter defining storm for Cleveland. After missing two significant snowstorms by a matter of 25 miles in either direction during the past 5 days, a potential miss of this storm only puts icing on the cake. Just take a look at the climate reports across the entire US, it's incredible how Cleveland has avoided the amazing surpluses the rest of the US is enjoying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 This will be a winter defining storm for Cleveland. After missing two significant snowstorms by a matter of 25 miles in either direction during the past 5 days, a potential miss of this storm only puts icing on the cake. Just take a look at the climate reports across the entire US, it's incredible how Cleveland has avoided the amazing surpluses the rest of the US is enjoying. This storm is either going to make SEMI the best place to be in February, or set the record for TOL in a February. Month of fringing for Northern OH for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Thanks for your input. That very well may be the case. Do you have any reasoning behind this? Haven't see a lot of thoughtful analysis from you like the other Mets provide. Or is this just a casual observation that you wanted to share with folks on the fringe? Yeah its based upon trends and that the upper level system looks stronger on satellite than I expected plus the GFS having a weak/SE bias with it being the furthest South and East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 This will be a winter defining storm for Cleveland. After missing two significant snowstorms by a matter of 25 miles in either direction during the past 5 days, a potential miss of this storm only puts icing on the cake. Just take a look at the climate reports across the entire US, it's incredible how Cleveland has avoided the amazing surpluses the rest of the US is enjoying. Not being mean, but how can CLE guys complain about not getting a synoptic system? I'd gladly take a foot of LES over 6" synoptic every day. Up there you get LES for us down here we dont. You should feel lucky imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 This will be a winter defining storm for Cleveland. After missing two significant snowstorms by a matter of 25 miles in either direction during the past 5 days, a potential miss of this storm only puts icing on the cake. Just take a look at the climate reports across the entire US, it's incredible how Cleveland has avoided the amazing surpluses the rest of the US is enjoying. No doubt. This is either the final nail, or a break in the synoptic drought. Going to be interesting to watch that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Yeah its based upon trends and that the upper level system looks stronger on satellite than I expected plus the GFS having a weak/SE bias with it being the furthest South and East. Thanks. Sounds a lot like what Baro and CSNavy were indicating. Good call wrt to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Not being mean, but how can CLE guys complain about not getting a synoptic system? I'd gladly take a foot of LES over 6" synoptic every day. Up there you get LES for us down here we dont. You should feel lucky imo Understood Dilly. It probably sounds trivial to people outside of LES areas when we complain about missing synoptic storms. We've literally be grazed by every synoptic storm this year. Take LES out of the equation and this area is no different than anywhere else. As for feeling lucky, it is nice to live in an area that receives LES snowfall. I do have a choice as to where I live. I grew up here, family and my job are here... so I decided to stay. Its a bonus that it happens to be in a place that receives LES snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Thunderstorms with a mix of snow, rain, and sleet breaking out over Illinois now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I'm kind of surprised there are no advisories for ice tonight -- even though accumulations should be under a tenth of an inch, the trees and powerlines still have ice on them from the last storm, so it probably wouldn't take too much additional accumulation to cause problems. And that's not even dealing with the roads where even a trace of ice can make things treacherous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 0z NAM CMH THU 7P 24-FEB 2.1 4.0 1012 100 83 0.17 559 549 FRI 1A 25-FEB 1.8 4.3 1004 99 100 0.38 555 552 FRI 7A 25-FEB 1.7 3.5 998 97 48 0.68 544 546 FRI 1P 25-FEB -0.8 -9.5 1011 81 78 0.06 539 530 CLE THU 7P 24-FEB 0.2 -0.1 1015 99 27 0.01 555 544 FRI 1A 25-FEB -0.8 0.3 1008 97 81 0.06 551 545 FRI 7A 25-FEB -1.7 -0.9 999 96 87 0.47 542 543 FRI 1P 25-FEB -2.4 -9.6 1008 93 91 0.25 535 528 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Another NWOH special right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 Euro FRI 06Z 25-FEB 0.0 0.5 1008 88 100 0.11 552 545 FRI 12Z 25-FEB -1.5 -0.3 997 95 97 1.00 542 544 FRI 18Z 25-FEB -1.9 -8.2 1013 83 86 0.38 539 528 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Wow the Hi-res NMM shows 7-10" of rain in parts of Kentucky. Hopefully that translates north into the colder air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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