dilly84 Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 Looking at the free maps... it seemed to take a track more toward SE OH but I may be mistaken. Euro temps are the wild card here. How did the Euro handle your temps for the last storm? Handled em good for 1 run. then went back to warmer solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 It should be noted that even the coldest solution GFS gives CMH only 0.9" of snow. It's just not happening for CMH, folks. Sorry. Fixed. I said before. south of I-70 I think is dead. At most you'll see zr/slop. But north of I-70 is still very much in the game. Last storm models didnt pick a final solution until the night before. (had me rain until the night before the storm) If that is any indication I would think we will have a better idea of temps tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Handled em good for 1 run. then went back to warmer solution. So the colder solution verified? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 Here is my thoughts for right now. Could easily change depending on what the 0z runs do tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 So the colder solution verified? Yea. I got 6" of snow and the nws offices had to scramble to put out advisory(shouldve been a warning here - 6" in 5.5 hrs), but they didnt issue it until the snow had actually been going on and we had an inch on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays-10to1.php3?STATIONID=ILN http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays-10to1.php3?STATIONID=ILN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iastfan112 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Nam is stronger and north, especially with cold side precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 uh oh... Somebody is throwing in their chips.. NAM...... Will the GFS raise the EURO and will the EURO call? p.s I am using poker talk here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 Nam is stronger and north, especially with cold side precip. Low from cvg to pit it looks like.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 uh oh... Somebody is throwing in their chips.. NAM...... Will the GFS raise the EURO and will the EURO call? p.s I am using poker talk here.... Its the 18z nam, which in my expirience is always stronger. Stronger storm = further north. Need it weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Yeap... Still could see some backside snows... I said this two weeks ago... Our time is coming after we get through this mess over the next 5 days. Starting March 1st will be OUR time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Its the 18z nam, which in my expirience is always stronger. Stronger storm = further north. Need it weaker. I was wondering if I was the only one to think that. It was either yesterday's or Monday's 18z run that had solution pretty far NW of the 12z, then shifted back a bit the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 Yeap... Still could see some backside snows... I said this two weeks ago... Our time is coming after we get through this mess over the next 5 days. Starting March 1st will be OUR time... Maybe we can both be right. Lol. I already nailed mine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I'd be more concerned with the 18z NAM if there was one other model that shifted significantly NW today. A 150 mile shift in one run doesn't seem realistic... the 18z NAM at that. Euro and UKIE have been ticking SE the past few runs. GFS moved a little NW... but more in line with the other models. If the NAM somehow sniffs out this massive change first I'll be surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheezemm Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Cleveland hoisting winter storm watches....naturally Stark County Ohio is in between the flood watch and the winter storm watch...Looks like I get a winter flood watch? Cleveland NOAA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Surprised CLE went with a watch so early. Pretty bullish. Smart of them to leave themselves an out. ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MUCH OF THE REGION WILL SEE RAIN THROUGH THURSDAY BUT AS COLDER AIR SPILLS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. THE MAIN CONCERN IS HOW LONG A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET COULD PERSIST AS THE AREA TRANSITIONS TO THE SNOWFALL. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PULLS EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW THAT FALLS. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAY BE IN THE 5 TO 7 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. ISOLATED TOTALS MAY REACH AS HIGH AS 9 INCHES. THESE TOTALS WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE AMOUNT OF ICE THAT WILL ACCUMULATE. IF GREATER ICE TOTALS OCCUR THE SNOWFALL COULD BE LOWER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheezemm Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Surprised CLE went with a watch so early. Pretty bullish. Smart of them to leave themselves an out. ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MUCH OF THE REGION WILL SEE RAIN THROUGH THURSDAY BUT AS COLDER AIR SPILLS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. THE MAIN CONCERN IS HOW LONG A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET COULD PERSIST AS THE AREA TRANSITIONS TO THE SNOWFALL. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PULLS EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW THAT FALLS. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAY BE IN THE 5 TO 7 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. ISOLATED TOTALS MAY REACH AS HIGH AS 9 INCHES. THESE TOTALS WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE AMOUNT OF ICE THAT WILL ACCUMULATE. IF GREATER ICE TOTALS OCCUR THE SNOWFALL COULD BE LOWER. NOT AGAIN! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 NOT AGAIN! I don't think this is going to be a big icing situation... basically rain or snow. Perhaps a small strip of ice but nothing major. We don't need anymore ice around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 From BUF re: the track. I would have posted CLE's disco on the track but they didn't have any. SIGNIFICANT SNOW BECOMING LIKELY FOR ENTIRE AREA FRIDAY... MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER CONSENSUS WITH TAKING A DEEPENING WAVE FROM OHIO VALLEY ACROSS SRN PA TO SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS IS AN UNUSUAL TRACK BUT STRONG CONSENSUS IN IT. THE ECMWF HAS NUDGED SOUTH A BIT FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...ERGO..COLDER... WHILE OTHER MODELS SUCH AS NAM, GFS AND GEM ALL JUMPED NORTH...WITH HIGHER QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 this storm move from cincy to pit i believe. this is probably the type of setup we end up with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 From BUF re: the track. I would have posted CLE's disco on the track but they didn't have any. SIGNIFICANT SNOW BECOMING LIKELY FOR ENTIRE AREA FRIDAY... MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER CONSENSUS WITH TAKING A DEEPENING WAVE FROM OHIO VALLEY ACROSS SRN PA TO SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS IS AN UNUSUAL TRACK BUT STRONG CONSENSUS IN IT. THE ECMWF HAS NUDGED SOUTH A BIT FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...ERGO..COLDER... WHILE OTHER MODELS SUCH AS NAM, GFS AND GEM ALL JUMPED NORTH...WITH HIGHER QPF. What an excellent discussion by CLE! BTW, I was in Wooster last night and they didn't have more than 5" on the ground. In fact, it didn't appear that any place from Cleveland to Wooster had more then 5" on the ground. These events make me nervous. The ride the line events almost win out towards the warm. I'm not going to get too excited yet. One of the other things I've learned this winter is that storms almost always move much faster than the models anticipate. I would take any max QPF, deduct 30% and apply a 10:1 ratio to get a realistic storm total snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 What an excellent discussion by CLE! BTW, I was in Wooster last night and they didn't have more than 5" on the ground. In fact, it didn't appear that any place from Cleveland to Wooster had more then 5" on the ground. These events make me nervous. The ride the line events almost win out towards the warm. I'm not going to get too excited yet. One of the other things I've learned this winter is that storms almost always move much faster than the models anticipate. I would take any max QPF, deduct 30% and apply a 10:1 ratio to get a realistic storm total snowfall. I figured there would be alot more snow down that way. Sun may have done some damage yesterday. CLE just copied and pasted their watch info in the disco. BUF and DTX had nice discussions... both offices favor an Ohio river track. If tonights run go NW I'll jump ship. One rogue NAM run is enough to make you nervous. We basically ride the line with every event here. I can see the rain line making it up to MFD to YNG but not much further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I figured there would be alot more snow down that way. Sun may have done some damage yesterday. CLE just copied and pasted their watch info in the disco. BUF and DTX had nice discussions... both offices favor an Ohio river track. If tonights run go NW I'll jump ship. One rogue NAM run is enough to make you nervous. We basically ride the line with every event here. I can see the rain line making it up to MFD to YNG but not much further north. If it does play out to a snow scenario, this will be an awful Friday morning commute. Even if we do stay mostly snow with a southerly track, I wouldn't get carried away with snowfall amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 gfs already warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 gfs already warmer. It's really not that much different than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 FWIW the RGEM gave NE IN through CLE about 1" of QPF in the form of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 12z GFS FRI 00Z 25-FEB 1.4 2.5 1014 99 72 0.18 558 546 FRI 06Z 25-FEB 0.8 1.9 1008 99 96 0.22 553 547 FRI 12Z 25-FEB -1.0 -1.3 1002 99 98 0.67 544 542 FRI 18Z 25-FEB -1.1 -7.9 1015 92 95 0.11 541 529 18z GFS FRI 00Z 25-FEB 1.6 2.9 1013 99 80 0.25 557 547 FRI 06Z 25-FEB 1.1 3.0 1005 100 98 0.32 553 549 FRI 12Z 25-FEB -0.3 2.0 997 98 98 0.93 542 545 FRI 18Z 25-FEB -0.1 -8.9 1013 91 94 0.09 538 528 hmm not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 It's really not that much different than 12z. I posted the data above. in this setup 3° is a huge difference. CLE FRI 00Z 25-FEB -0.1 -0.3 1015 99 37 0.04 555 543 FRI 06Z 25-FEB -0.6 -0.7 1008 98 96 0.17 549 544 FRI 12Z 25-FEB -2.5 -5.3 1002 98 99 0.52 539 537 FRI 18Z 25-FEB -1.7 -8.9 1014 93 95 0.11 536 525 CMH THU 18Z 24-FEB 3.7 3.9 1015 98 99 0.14 560 548 FRI 00Z 25-FEB 1.4 4.4 1012 99 99 0.32 558 548 FRI 06Z 25-FEB 1.2 4.9 1002 99 99 0.47 553 552 FRI 12Z 25-FEB -0.4 0.3 999 96 97 0.67 541 541 FRI 18Z 25-FEB -0.1 -7.8 1016 87 86 0.05 541 528 SAT 00Z 26-FEB -4.6 -6.1 1023 96 33 0.01 547 529 DAY THU 12Z 24-FEB 1.3 5.5 1017 95 97 0.04 562 548 THU 18Z 24-FEB 2.8 4.5 1015 98 97 0.22 561 549 FRI 00Z 25-FEB 1.3 4.3 1012 99 97 0.25 557 548 FRI 06Z 25-FEB 1.4 3.7 1002 98 98 0.52 552 551 FRI 12Z 25-FEB -2.1 -4.3 1003 97 95 0.50 540 537 TOL FRI 00Z 25-FEB -0.3 -0.1 1015 98 30 0.01 552 540 FRI 06Z 25-FEB -2.2 -4.4 1009 98 96 0.14 546 539 FRI 12Z 25-FEB -4.8 -8.4 1008 98 97 0.37 537 530 FRI 18Z 25-FEB -4.3 -8.0 1018 94 63 0.05 538 524 PIT THU 18Z 24-FEB 3.6 3.3 1016 96 96 0.06 559 546 FRI 00Z 25-FEB 1.5 2.8 1014 99 86 0.35 558 547 FRI 06Z 25-FEB 1.7 3.3 1006 99 98 0.19 554 549 FRI 12Z 25-FEB 2.3 4.6 995 99 98 0.95 545 549 FRI 18Z 25-FEB -0.4 -8.5 1008 92 98 0.12 536 530 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I'm telling you guys, unless you're in the northern 1/4 of Ohio, this just isn't our storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 I'm telling you guys, unless you're in the northern 1/4 of Ohio, this just isn't our storm. Ya know there are cleveland posters here, toledo, etc. So just because it isnt "our" storm means nothing. North of I-70 gets snow if it decides to shift south by 30 - 40 miles. As we stand right now, northern 1/4 of the state sees mostly snow. So until it shows them getting nothing, this thread will stay alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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