NEOH Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 normally that would be a great track for the I-70 corridor... ....normally That's what I thought... great track... but lack of cold air. Slow this system down so more cold air can get in and it is a different story for parts of OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Give up on the snow Dilly...this one isn't for us I actually agree. This will be a case where Dilly gets all pissed because it will be almost all rain, but the thing is, it's just reality. There really never was any potential for us with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Not expecting much snow for CMH on this one...But I noticed on the last storm the rain changed to snow/sleet before thicknesses hit 540 which is important. I could see us pulling out a few inches at the end. The 12z NAM deform band looks unrealistic. I like the NAM track though for my fcst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 I actually agree. This will be a case where Dilly gets all pissed because it will be almost all rain, but the thing is, it's just reality. There really never was any potential for us with this one. I'm not worried yet. 30 mile south shift and I'm golden. Id start as rain and switch to snow with a shift of 30 miles and would be in the 6-8" snow. I guess we shall see who wins the battle gfs or euro, one of them will cave today. Aside that Jay, I got my 6" storm so no complaining either way. Would kinda suck to have it melt away so fast, but it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 dilly never says "die"...he's the toughest met on here Well I'm not a met for starters. Just a weather weenie like most here. And I typically will throw the towel in fairly quickly. I won't with this one yet because it is so close for me. If I were south of I-70. Id say game over. North of I-70 still has a shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Any chance of snow for Toledo? It looks like a good track, but for some reason, despite the low passing way south, it's really warm out ahead of it resulting in some rain and then there's a really sharp cutoff once the colder air finally works in. Weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Well I'm not a met for starters. Just a weather weenie like most here. And I typically will throw the towel in fairly quickly. I won't with this one yet because it is so close for me. If I were south of I-70. Id say game over. North of I-70 still has a shot. That's fine. I just don't see it. There's just no cold air to work with until it's long gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maumee Bay Turf Center Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Any chance of snow for Toledo? It looks like a good track, but for some reason, despite the low passing way south, it's really warm out ahead of it resulting in some rain and then there's a really sharp cutoff once the colder air finally works in. Weird. toledo is in a pretty good spot right now for 4+ accums...this puppy could keep moving north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 Any chance of snow for Toledo? It looks like a good track, but for some reason, despite the low passing way south, it's really warm out ahead of it resulting in some rain and then there's a really sharp cutoff once the colder air finally works in. Weird. Nam is mostly snow on the 12z run. 4-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maumee Bay Turf Center Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Nam is mostly snow on the 12z run. 4-6" dilly please give him imby map so we can get him off ledge...lol i demand a "dilly map" after 00z runs tonight !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Per Bukfit, 12z NAM spit out 11" at CLE. Warm air is lurking really close by though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Per Bukfit, 12z NAM spit out 11" at CLE. Warm air is lurking really close by though. Nice. We are long over due. At least we are inside 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 One thing to watch out for is that ridge over the east coast... I don't know if I buy this being as progressive as the models show with that hanging on over there. So that could allow for greater QPF. But you'd have to watch out for dry slots. One would think the deformation zone would setup over NW Ohio though and the dry slot would be further south from CVG to DAY to CMH. The last storm was mostly a 6-hour type deal, this could be a 12-15 hour storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Through 48, the GFS is a nice hit for most of OH... including the I-70 corridor I believe. Brings the cold air in quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 One thing to watch out for is that ridge over the east coast... I don't know if I buy this being as progressive as the models show with that hanging on over there. So that could allow for greater QPF. But you'd have to watch out for dry slots. One would think the deformation zone would setup over NW Ohio though and the dry slot would be further south from CVG to DAY to CMH. The last storm was mostly a 6-hour type deal, this could be a 12-15 hour storm. lol. All models are showing a virtual snow hole right over Toledo. I believe they are conspiring against you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 ouch unfortunately this looks like the most realistic scenario to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 ouch unfortunately this looks like the most realistic scenario to me. It has come south from previous runs. Trending toward the other models. I can see a river runner or just north being the track. Not that far north though. Models are starting to converge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 GFS is still a hair SE, but we basically have a general consensus now on the track. Question is, how fast can cold air come in? I can still see a few inches here in Columbus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Just ran BUKFIT on the latest GFS and it gets super ice happy...Takes CMH below freezing in time for 0.40" of freezing rain then an inch of snow. I looked at the plot of the 1300m (1000-850 thickness) line on accuweather from the 12z GFS and it runs well ahead of the 540 line. That 1300m line was the rain/snow changeover on Monday so we might get more snow/ice here in Columbus than some are currently thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Per Bufkit, 12z GFS for CLE - 8.9". So the NAM showing 11" and the GFS 9". On to the Euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Dilly - No Euro play by play? Edit: Looks like the low goes from Texas at hour 24... to SE OH at 48. No idea on temps or precip... but certainly no major shift. Maybe a hair south. Can't really tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 CMH EURO FRI 00Z 25-FEB 5.5 3.9 1012 97 99 0.06 558 549 FRI 06Z 25-FEB 5.4 5.5 1001 98 99 0.62 553 552 FRI 12Z 25-FEB 3.5 4.0 994 97 40 1.00 542 547 FRI 18Z 25-FEB 1.8 -6.2 1014 68 73 0.07 542 531 Not backing down! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 CMH EURO FRI 00Z 25-FEB 5.5 3.9 1012 97 99 0.06 558 549 FRI 06Z 25-FEB 5.4 5.5 1001 98 99 0.62 553 552 FRI 12Z 25-FEB 3.5 4.0 994 97 40 1.00 542 547 FRI 18Z 25-FEB 1.8 -6.2 1014 68 73 0.07 542 531 Not backing down! Probably not a big deal... but doesn't the euro have a "warm" bias wrt temps? If you could share CLE's stat it would be much appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 CMH EURO MON 06Z 28-FEB 10.6 10.2 1005 92 98 0.14 563 559 MON 12Z 28-FEB 14.5 10.5 999 94 82 0.13 560 561 MON 18Z 28-FEB 16.8 11.1 989 89 97 0.32 552 561 TUE 00Z 01-MAR 11.2 2.5 994 43 58 0.33 536 540 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 Euro and gfs both hold serve, and actually the euro is now a torch. Gfs FRI 00Z 25-FEB 1.4 2.5 1014 99 72 0.18 558 546 FRI 06Z 25-FEB 0.8 1.9 1008 99 96 0.22 553 547 FRI 12Z 25-FEB -1.0 -1.3 1002 99 98 0.67 544 542 FRI 18Z 25-FEB -1.1 -7.9 1015 92 95 0.11 541 529 SAT 00Z 26-FEB -6.3 -6.5 1024 97 46 0.01 545 527 Euro FRI 00Z 25-FEB 3.3 2.7 1013 96 67 0.07 558 548 FRI 06Z 25-FEB 4.2 3.5 1004 98 100 0.32 553 550 FRI 12Z 25-FEB 6.5 5.2 992 98 79 0.91 544 551 FRI 18Z 25-FEB 1.0 -7.2 1010 75 89 0.20 539 531 SAT 00Z 26-FEB -1.3 -7.1 1019 81 31 0.01 544 529 Just unreal the differences this close. 7 difference in the two. Pick your poison I guess. I can say this. Euro is going to bust with todays temps. My high today is 44. I'm still at 27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Euro and gfs both hold serve, and actually the euro is now a torch. Gfs FRI 00Z 25-FEB 1.4 2.5 1014 99 72 0.18 558 546 FRI 06Z 25-FEB 0.8 1.9 1008 99 96 0.22 553 547 FRI 12Z 25-FEB -1.0 -1.3 1002 99 98 0.67 544 542 FRI 18Z 25-FEB -1.1 -7.9 1015 92 95 0.11 541 529 SAT 00Z 26-FEB -6.3 -6.5 1024 97 46 0.01 545 527 Euro FRI 00Z 25-FEB 3.3 2.7 1013 96 67 0.07 558 548 FRI 06Z 25-FEB 4.2 3.5 1004 98 100 0.32 553 550 FRI 12Z 25-FEB 6.5 5.2 992 98 79 0.91 544 551 FRI 18Z 25-FEB 1.0 -7.2 1010 75 89 0.20 539 531 SAT 00Z 26-FEB -1.3 -7.1 1019 81 31 0.01 544 529 Just unreal the differences this close. 7 difference in the two. Pick your poison I guess. I can say this. Euro is going to bust with todays temps. My high today is 44. I'm still at 27. Its a tug of war to say the least. I still favor the darn EURO but maybe the 2m temps are too warm... How do the tracks of the low compare? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 For comparisons they are acting similar with the Monday system. GFS MON 06Z 28-FEB 5.9 9.7 1006 100 87 0.05 561 556 MON 12Z 28-FEB 8.6 8.6 1000 99 95 0.56 557 557 MON 18Z 28-FEB 11.6 8.6 992 96 86 0.47 549 557 TUE 00Z 01-MAR -0.2 -6.9 1008 97 48 0.79 542 537 Euro MON 06Z 28-FEB 7.4 9.8 1007 89 88 0.03 562 557 MON 12Z 28-FEB 12.7 10.5 1000 97 66 0.24 560 560 MON 18Z 28-FEB 16.8 10.9 992 81 74 0.12 553 560 TUE 00Z 01-MAR 9.5 4.5 992 63 79 0.52 534 541 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 Its a tug of war to say the least. I still favor the darn EURO but maybe the 2m temps are too warm... How do the tracks of the low compare? You can look at the mos data I posted and see big difference in the low track. Euro brings a 992 over me. And the lowest the gfs gets is 1002. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 You can look at the mos data I posted and see big difference in the low track. Euro brings a 992 over me. And the lowest the gfs gets is 1002. Looking at the free maps... it seemed to take a track more toward SE OH but I may be mistaken. Euro temps are the wild card here. How did the Euro handle your temps for the last storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 It should be noted that even the coldest solution GFS gives us only 0.9" of snow. It's just not happening here, folks. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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