Bob Chill Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 It's hard to focus on when, how much, and where the changeover happens right now. It's all in the timing of the features and we just plain won't know the minute details until 24-48 hours before the even. Heck, it may come down to nowcasting again. It sure does look likely that accum snow is in the forecast either way. And the best part is that there is no "NS vort is screwing everything up" talk. Much simpler set up going in with this one than most of the other threats this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 gfs sucks This storm has major disappointment written all over it. Just yesterday, I thought it had great potential. Maybe it will begin to trend better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 This storm has major disappointment written all over it. Just yesterday, I thought it had great potential. Maybe it will begin to trend better. hA both written all over it. So why worry about it. Too short a time to even get excited. May not do anything!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 true.. it's outside the ellinwood sweetspot of 72. Why do you think I'm waiting until Saturday's 12z suite to make my snowfall map? I've had 1-3" in my mind (which would be more like the 1-2" contour) for DC/MoCo, but we'll see how well that holds tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 It's hard to focus on when, how much, and where the changeover happens right now. It's all in the timing of the features and we just plain won't know the minute details until 24-48 hours before the even. Heck, it may come down to nowcasting again. It sure does look likely that accum snow is in the forecast either way. And the best part is that there is no "NS vort is screwing everything up" talk. Much simpler set up going in with this one than most of the other threats this year. The simpler the storm setup is - The more likely it is to verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 This storm has major disappointment written all over it. Just yesterday, I thought it had great potential. Maybe it will begin to trend better. Hey, you lazy bum. Wait till 12z Sunday before bailing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 What is so horrifying about the latest GFS? Still looks like some snow to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Hey, you lazy bum. Wait till 12z Sunday before bailing. I was careful not to post until the proper time. No bail in me. I'm a total wishcaster. This is the time frame for it to look bad only to come roaring back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 The 00Z nam may be interesting as it does have differences over canada and the timing of the first wave looks faster at 48 hrs. It will be interesting to see what that does to the surface front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 The NAM 500h at 72 hours is very different, I think it would be a very good run but am not sure I believe it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 The NAM 500h at 72 hours is very different, I think it would be a very good run but am not sure I believe it. I;m with you...i think it does look better so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I;m with you...i think it does look better so far I was counting on you reading it and rallying to the cause. The 500h with the second wave is much stronger and would give us a longer period of precip once we got a changeover I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I was counting on you reading it and rallying to the cause. The 500h with the second wave is much stronger and would give us a longer period of precip once we got a changeover I think. Yeah the NAM caught on to the long shot of good rates rather than a Jan 26th type thump. Good run, whether we should buy it, ehh. GFS should be interesting to see if we can gain on this positive run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Randy is now Ian? You know how all those black taggers look the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I was counting on you reading it and rallying to the cause. The 500h with the second wave is much stronger and would give us a longer period of precip once we got a changeover I think. I think we have one more bus ride left in us. at 78, the vorts are farther south as well. Precip is much more robust on the back side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 You know how all those black taggers look the same. Risky, but the payoff for that one was worth it. solid B+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 You know how all those black taggers look the same. Are you sure about that, have you not seen Randy in the CR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 DAMN PA gets crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Nam is cooler and better at 500 which is good but the real slug of moisture is in PA after the changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I think we have one more bus ride left in us. at 78, the vorts are farther south as well. Precip is much more robust on the back side. Still looks like the best stuff would be up in PA and that we might get dry slotted. We need the southern vort to track farther south and for the vortex that elongates up over Canada to stay a little stronger. That still could happen but we're fighting an uphill battle. I think where I live it will ultimately be a losing battle but I'll still be watching it over the next couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 DAMN PA gets crushed Yeah with the ratios they would get, they could be looking at 12-24" easy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Still looks like the best stuff would be up in PA and that we might get dry slotted. We need the southern vort to track farther south and for the vortex that elongates up over Canada to stay a little stronger. That still could happen but we're fighting an uphill battle. I think where I live it will ultimately be a losing battle but I'll still be watching it over the next couple of days. Looks good for JamieO country for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 i think central pa might be the only place as repeatedly screwed as us this winter so they are due Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Yeah, Central PA gets the jackpot this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Nice hit here on the 00Z NAM. At least 4" after the changeover and likely more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Yeah, Central PA gets the jackpot this run the jackpot changes every run. the 12z EURO made us the jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Yeah, Central PA gets the jackpot this run the positives are it was colder and a MUCH improved 500 vort still a long way to go and I doubt it's gonna go much further north than the NAM is showing...clown map has 1-2 dc-balt with 2-5 up to the pa border...etc http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL_84HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 the jackpot changes every run. the 12z EURO made us the jackpot I know, that's why I;'m not all that worried right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 have a feeling people in northern pa / NE aren't going to like what the gfs spits out but then again maybe none of us will...don't think many of us expected that...i'll take a blend of the 0z NAM and GFS and run with them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 00z GFS sucks... come on EURO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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