yoda Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Based on the profiles, it looks like it would turn from rain, to perhaps a brief period of sleet and then quickly to very powdery snow. Would need to see BUFKIT details for snow crystal growth, etc..., but very cold profile for the last few hours of snow. So I'd say probably better than 10:1 ratios. Yup. As i posted above... 850's go from around +1 in DCA at 90 to -10 at 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 The dashed line in the precip map is the 0c 850 line I am pretty sure Well if that is the case then it looks good, they are such bad maps i cannot even clearly see my area with my vision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Color maps 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Well if that is the case then it looks good, they are such bad maps i cannot even clearly see my area with my vision. There's that (quality, or lack thereof, of those maps) and the fact that you can only get them at 12 hour intervals. Sure it's looking great at 12Z Tuesday with a nice swath of good precip. But when does that fall, exactly, during those 12 hours, and when would a changeover to snow occur? Really hard to tell from that. I'd hope maybe at least half or so of that is snow, but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Color 96 (DCA/IAD/BWI all in 15+ mm of precip... what type it is who knows right now... I will know in a few) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 18, 2011 Author Share Posted February 18, 2011 GGEM has changeover around hour 90-91 for Balt and hour 92 for DC. Snow's over between hour 96 and 97. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 the 500 mb vort doesnt really have any room to go north right now which might be an issue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 the 500 mb vort doesnt really have any room to go north right now which might be an issue Vort could just as easily go further south with this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Vort could just as easily go further south with this setup. well i would not expect it to go way north with some blocking but north is usually a better trend to bet on than south either way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 well i would not expect it to go way north with some blocking but north is usually a better trend to bet on than south either way Ian i hear the EURO is a nice hit for us, what is it showing?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Looks like 2-3" on the euro?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Ian i hear the EURO is a nice hit for us, what is it showing?. Could be a 3-5 deal for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 18, 2011 Author Share Posted February 18, 2011 From what I can see on Ewall crappy graphics, all but 1 of the GEFS members gives us snow. That one is a very weak, suppressed solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Ian i hear the EURO is a nice hit for us, what is it showing?. strip of .5"+ across the area.. looks like the gfs sorta. hard to tell when the changover is but decent hit i think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 84 precip in with +4 850 to MD border, 90 0c 850 south of D.C. with .25"+ across area, prob mostly snow near md border at least. 96 another .1"+ all snow across area, 0c 850 down to southern va. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Temps crash in D.C. from 50 at 84 to freezing at 90 to prob about 25 at 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Could be a 3-5 deal for you. Thanks i would gladly take that, as sad as that is that would be my second biggest snowfall of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 84 precip in with +4 850 to MD border, 90 0c 850 south of D.C. with .25"+ across area, prob mostly snow near md border at least. 96 another .1"+ all snow across area, 0c 850 down to southern va. It sounds good to me, we can get 3-6" out of this in the Baltimore area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 It's possible DC could be 70 on Monday and snow Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 It's possible DC could be 70 on Monday and snow Tuesday. yeah verbatim it has 70s just southwest on monday with 60+ into dc. one more 70+ puts us tied #2 all time for such in Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Regardless of exact snow amounts, any bets on what rush hour will be like Tuesday morning?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Temp do really crash big time. Interesting setup. Makes me wonder if there will be more precip and good rates than what is already shown. Volitile weather is fun. T shirt weather with the car window down today. HWW tomorrow. And now a legit threat of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Temp do really crash big time. Interesting setup. Makes me wonder if there will be more precip and good rates than what is already shown. Volitile weather is fun. T shirt weather with the car window down today. HWW tomorrow. And now a legit threat of snow. Volatile, indeed! Brings a measure of truth to the old saying "if you don't like the weather, wait a few minutes!" in this instance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 18, 2011 Author Share Posted February 18, 2011 GFS Ensemble mean looks warmer and drier than the Op. Still would give everyone some snow though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 FWIW, the euro changes BWI over to snow around 06z and DC maybe arounf 08z Tuesday, based on critical thicknesses. The only thing that seems sort of "meh" right now, is the whole system is slowly getting squashed to the south. Usually, that's not a good sign for qpf. It's still possible there could be a good frontogenesis band running east to west that may get BWI pretty good, but something to keep in mind anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 CoastalWx posting in the mid-Atlantic forum always brings good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 18, 2011 Author Share Posted February 18, 2011 FWIW, the euro changes BWI over to snow around 06z and DC maybe arounf 08z Tuesday, based on critical thicknesses. The only thing that seems sort of "meh" right now, is the whole system is slowly getting squashed to the south. Usually, that's not a good sign for qpf. It's still possible there could be a good frontogenesis band running east to west that may get BWI pretty good, but something to keep in mind anyways. Pretty impressive consistency among the GFS/Euro/GGEM for a system 84-96 hours away. All of them have the changeover almost within the exact same hour. All onboard for probably a 1-4" storm, depending on location, with perhaps someone near the PA line getting closer to 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 EURO shows .15 of rain and .56 as snow for both Dulles and Leesburg. DCA gets .56 of snow qpf but .36 fall with 850 temps at -0.2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 18, 2011 Author Share Posted February 18, 2011 EURO shows .15 of rain and .56 as snow for both Dulles and Leesburg. DCA gets .56 of snow qpf but .36 fall with 850 temps at -0.2. BWI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanVA Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Why would it be rain for RIC based on the 12z run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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