Grothar of Herndon Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 DCA - 3 inches BWI - 5 inches IAD - 6 inches That's my call. I think this is a storm where being north/northwest of DC pays off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Screw the GFS... we're doing this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 This will give folks a good idea of where the front is. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/ctp/analysis/temp/region_temp.png http://www.erh.noaa.gov/ctp/analysis/press/region_press.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Screw the GFS... we're doing this: Is this your final call? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Temp stuck at 36F out here with a light NE wind. Hopefully, we don't warm up too much this afternoon. Highs predicted at 51F. W/O a south wind, and (hopefully) no sun-shine, can't believe 51F will happen. Unless, of course, the winds turn southerly. Hopefully, we don't get the shaft again out here with tonights possible storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Temp stuck at 36F out here with a light NE wind. Hopefully, we don't warm up too much this afternoon. Highs predicted at 51F. W/O a south wind, and (hopefully) no sun-shine, can't believe 51F will happen. Unless, of course, the winds turn southerly. Hopefully, we don't get the shaft again out here with tonights possible storm. You are right on the heavy cutoff line. The heavy stuff should be just to your north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 If models keep coming in ore significant then they will likely extend. Safe to say that some of our best storms had LWX playing a bit of catchup. LWX is comprised of professionals that have to forecast for millions of people... it's a lot easier for them not to weenie compared to everyone here. So far their moves seem rather logical based on guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Screw the GFS... we're doing this: 4-8 for BWI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 LWX is comprised of professionals that have to forecast for millions of people... it's a lot easier for them not to weenie compared to everyone here. So far their moves seem rather logical based on guidance. Agree. And head over to our SVR thread btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Is this your final call? It is. I had some apprehension about making my "final call" last night without having the wiggle room for nowcasting changes. I paid for that one This one's the real deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Screw the GFS... we're doing this: Nice map. I think you may end up moving the 4-8 down into the Shenandoah Valley some though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 12Z NAM has 0.52" of liquid at HGR in just 3 hrs from 10 p.m. to 1 a.m. with 850's -5 to -7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 12Z NAM has 0.52" of liquid at HGR in just 3 hrs from 10 p.m. to 1 a.m. with 850's -5 to -7. Sweet...probably a bit better than 10:1 ratios as well. If that QPF verifies (probably too high in reality), that would be fun Speaking of which, who has the NAM BUFKIT porno with the (probably) 35:1 ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Nice map. I think you may end up moving the 4-8 down into the Shenandoah Valley some though. It's hard to tell with regards to how much mixing there will be with it. You could be right, but you're starting to get into nail-biting territory when bringing the big totals even further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 It's hard to tell with regards to how much mixing there will be with it. You could be right, but you're starting to get into nail-biting territory when bringing the big totals even further south. This has been a nail biter since the beginning. Tough call on the southern extend of 4+. We're starting off a lot cooler today than previously modeled. It will be interesting to see how far south the "most or all snow line" verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 This has been a nail biter since the beginning. Tough call on the southern extend of 4+. We're starting off a lot cooler today than previously modeled. It will be interesting to see how far south the "most or all snow line" verifies. sorta, but guidance has shown snow of some sort for a while now. as far as this area goes that's not terribly common. most people are just afraid to bite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 4-8 for BWI? Missed this post For you+BWI I'll say 4-7" with local amounts hitting 8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 just looked at the ARL site that has hourly soundings NAM has mby as mostly snow (if not all) by 9PM with the warmest nose of +.5C at 800mb by 10PM, everything is safely below freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 LWX is comprised of professionals that have to forecast for millions of people... it's a lot easier for them not to weenie compared to everyone here. So far their moves seem rather logical based on guidance. Disagree wholeheartedly. They botched Jan 26th and are still behind the times for this one. A watch is not a warning. There is clearly a reason to posts watches all the way down to near D.C. for the potential of more than 4 to 5 inches of snow. This wait and see garbage completely voids the purpose of putting up watches. People don't look at other counties adjacent to their north as see Watches and assume the same could happen to them. They simply just don't know anything but what stupid TV mets will tell them, and right now they are telling them that there will be one inch or so. The purpose isn't to be as close to accurate as possible by the time the storm hits so you can say you were accurate. The point is to actually put up information about what could occur. I'm sick of Lwx being let off because they have a "reputation" to defend. They are supposed to be martyrs for the cause of safety. This isn't a game or a competition. In my opinion they have been absolutely horrible with the last storm and so far with this one because of their self consciousness. This thread has consistently been a mine for more valuable information than the NWS is providing. I'm sorry but that's not acceptable if they want to be called professionals. They damn well better start weenying because this conservative, play it cool nonsense is costing money and the merit of safety. I would rather see a boxing day bust than people stuck in traffic for 7 hours without anywhere to sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 sorta, but guidance has shown snow of some sort for a while now. as far as this area goes that's not terribly common. most people are just afraid to bite. I don't know why winters around here usually bite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Rgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Symblized Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Surprised at how low the bufkit ratios are for the 06z GFS/NAM runs. Only generally 6 to 8:1 at the heaviest snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Disagree wholeheartedly. They botched Jan 26th and are still behind the times for this one. A watch is not a warning. There is clearly a reason to posts watches all the way down to near D.C. for the potential of more than 4 to 5 inches of snow. This wait and see garbage completely voids the purpose of putting up watches. People don't look at other counties adjacent to their north as see Watches and assume the same could happen to them. They simply just don't know anything but what stupid TV mets will tell them, and right now they are telling them that there will be one inch or so. The purpose isn't to be as close to accurate as possible by the time the storm hits so you can say you were accurate. The point is to actually put up information about what could occur. I'm sick of Lwx being let off because they have a "reputation" to defend. They are supposed to be martyrs for the cause of safety. This isn't a game or a competition. In my opinion they have been absolutely horrible with the last storm and so far with this one because of their self consciousness. This thread has consistently been a mine for more valuable information than the NWS is providing. I'm sorry but that's not acceptable if they want to be called professionals. They damn well better start weenying because this conservative, play it cool nonsense is costing money and the merit of safety. I would rather see a boxing day bust than people stuck in traffic for 7 hours without anywhere to sleep. This is a really whiny post. Do some of you guys think before you hit the button? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Screw the GFS... we're doing this: With knowing that your forecast maps are usually pretty good in the back of my mind, I think you're going to be too low over here. In this one, I think elevation is going to give us that earlier change to snow, and, hence, higher totals. Anyway, thanks for the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 UNBELIEVABLE!!!! NAM doesn't start the precip at my house until 15Z, 10PM soundings show entire column below zero! here is the meteogram for relevant hours that means everything on the NAM falls as snow NAM NEtile# Latitude: 39.21 Longitude: -76.68 & DATA INITIAL TIME: 21 FEB 2011 12Z& CALCULATION STARTED AT: 21 FEB 2011 12Z& HOURS OF CALCULATION: 48 & FIELD MSL PRESSURE TEMPERATURE DEW POINT TEMPERATURE REL HUMID PRECIPITATION LEVEL 2M 2M .8258 SIG 2M UNITS HPA DEGC DEGC DEGC PCT MM HR + 0. 1004.4 4.7 -1.8 4.3 62.7 0.00 + 1. 1006.3 6.0 1.1 3.9 70.5 0.00 + 2. 1003.8 6.3 1.6 3.4 71.9 0.00 + 3. 1005.5 6.1 1.6 3.1 72.6 0.00 + 4. 1007.1 6.0 1.3 3.2 71.6 0.00 + 5. 1006.2 5.8 0.8 3.8 70.1 0.00 + 6. 1007.0 6.8 0.8 4.1 65.8 0.00 + 7. 1008.6 7.8 1.2 3.3 63.3 0.00 + 8. 1007.1 7.7 1.3 3.4 63.8 0.00 + 9. 1008.8 7.7 0.8 3.4 61.8 0.00 + 10. 1008.5 6.7 0.5 3.2 64.2 0.00 + 11. 1009.5 5.4 -0.6 2.4 65.4 0.00 + 12. 1010.3 3.8 -1.2 1.5 69.8 0.00 + 13. 1010.2 2.3 -1.5 1.0 75.8 0.00 + 14. 1011.3 1.2 -1.6 0.5 81.6 0.00 + 15. 1011.6 0.2 -1.5 -0.6 88.3 1.95 + 16. 1012.3 -0.6 -1.6 -2.4 92.9 2.45 + 17. 1012.9 -1.4 -2.2 -5.1 94.3 4.74 + 18. 1013.1 -2.0 -2.8 -6.0 94.2 7.17 + 19. 1013.3 -2.3 -3.0 -4.8 94.5 2.78 + 20. 1013.6 -2.4 -3.2 -5.7 94.7 4.88 + 21. 1014.3 -2.9 -3.7 -6.6 94.2 5.86 + 22. 1014.5 -3.2 -4.3 -8.1 92.3 0.56 + 23. 1015.1 -3.8 -4.8 -8.0 92.2 0.98 + 24. 1016.3 -4.1 -5.4 -7.4 90.1 1.12 + 25. 1016.9 -4.0 -5.8 -7.0 87.3 0.04 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I don't know why winters around here usually bite true, but pretty much every source underpredicts bigger events here without fail. the euro has had a good snowstorm around here for days now.. and thru the beginning of the weekend many were acting like we'd get a dusting at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 This is a really whiny post. Do some of you guys think before you hit the button? I bumped the TV mets thread hoping that people would take that discussion over there. Maybe move that post/discussion to that thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 50 pages...new thread time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I bumped the TV mets thread hoping that people would take that discussion over there. Maybe move that post/discussion to that thread? i dunno, im going to leave it for now.. it's a fine line in some instances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 someone can start a new thread.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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