WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I don't really understand this snowfall map out of LWX. First of all, it changes constantly. Secondly, the NAM just upped my precip, held it back for a short while, was colder, sooner, and this snowfall map total went down for me. Now, I know that what a forecast map has for me has no bearing on what actually happens, but I just wonder what the mechanism is that drives this map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 What the models say...we do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 Angle of the moonlight through the clouds is going to kill snow ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Fixed Don't fret too much, though... like I said, I may have to adjust things south anyway! I'm just speaking from climo but it's all good...looks like we all have a decent shot at some good stuff which is all I care about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Angle of the moonlight through the clouds is going to kill snow ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 7" IMBY and it screws Philly, NYC and Boston? Yes please That map is only through 24 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Guess watches will be extended at some point soon, then. Goodness knows the news channels in Baltimore are in catch-up mode. Channel 11 went with less than one inch on their 11:00 pm newscast last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Yup watches or warnings will be extended south and east with the morning update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I'll update my forecast once the 12z NAM/GFS come in. Looking to go 2-4" for DC and 4-8" for Frederick/BWI, with 1-2" (2-4"?) in NoVA and southern MD. Now this makes no sense to me. Here I am at the same latitude as BWI, higher elevation, colder, with as much or more modeled precip expected. Am I missing something in my model interpretation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 That map is only through 24 though. Snow is done by 12z tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I'm just speaking from climo but it's all good...looks like we all have a decent shot at some good stuff which is all I care about. i still havent seen heavy snow at my new house. I missed the entire Jan 27 storm in the hood being stuck on a Loudoun County bus. Hopefully, i will get home before the flakes fly. If we start off with snow and not ping, it could be a special storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 NAM..WAAAAAAAAY colder and Wetter I'm not surprised by the colder as my temps are already falling here in calvert county making my 60s call from yesterday pretty funny. The wetter is a little surprising and it would even put me at risk for 3 or 4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 700 map is very nice. Maybe 4-8 for my area is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Guess watches will be extended at some point soon, then. Goodness knows the news channels in Baltimore are in catch-up mode. Channel 11 went with less than one inch on their 11:00 pm newscast last night. At least B. Woods on WJZ said that there was a chance for a few inches. I have a feeling that quite a few people are going to be caught off guard later tonight and tomorrow morning. Should be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Yup watches or warnings will be extended south and east with the morning update. Where do you get the update information? Dont see anything on the weather.gov point and click or zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I just hope the NAM as as right with this run as it was with its 12Z Christmas Day run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Now this makes no sense to me. Here I am at the same latitude as BWI, higher elevation, colder, with as much or more modeled precip expected. Am I missing something in my model interpretation? We are different out here. We have elevation and that helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I just hope the NAM as as right with this run as it was with its 12Z Christmas Day run im sure 18z will cut the qpf in half and be warmer by 5-6 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Where do you get the update information? Dont see anything on the weather.gov point and click or zone. I was just agreeing with an earlier post. It is very likely to near certain that watches will be extended south and east based on latest guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Where do you get the update information? Dont see anything on the weather.gov point and click or zone. Morning update will come out at 11 AM I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Folks have to remember that to get anything super good on the roads the rates are going to have to be pretty hefty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Morning update will come out at 11 AM I believe It's come out in the past anytime between 915 and 1115. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Folks have to remember that to get anything super good on the roads the rates are going to have to be pretty hefty. It won't be very warm today for most people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 It won't be very warm today for most people. snow will stick on the roads pretty fast at night...if its dark and 28 and snowing hard..it should have no problem sticking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Now this makes no sense to me. Here I am at the same latitude as BWI, higher elevation, colder, with as much or more modeled precip expected. Am I missing something in my model interpretation? The snow track is something like WNW to ESE... after making some adjustments to my map I have you in the 2-4" just S of the 4-8" contour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 We are different out here. We have elevation and that helps. To be fair, maybe he's referring to NoVA as the area south of DC. I trust his knowledge so I was just wondering if there was something that I wasn't seeing correctly. It does look good out here. And, as a sidenote, it sure looks like temps are going to be at least 20 degrees colder today than were forecast just about 36 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 Folks have to remember that to get anything super good on the roads the rates are going to have to be pretty hefty. There will certainly be melting on the roads when this starts tonight, but no reason to expect that nothing will accumulate there. Will probably be a situation where there's 4" on the grass and 2" on the street. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 The snow track is something like WNW to ESE... after making some adjustments to my map I have you in the 2-4" just S of the 4-8" contour. Thanks. I know that fretting about amounts at this point is pointless. I just didn't know what I might be missing. See my post above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Symblized Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I just hope the NAM as as right with this run as it was with its 12Z Christmas Day run Haha I was thinking the same thing. We have seen at least one quirky pre-event run with the NAM this winter almost without fail. The good thing is, this one at least fits with the trend since yesterday, and HPC is going with a model blend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 ABC 7 - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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