yoda Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Ya your right. Hopefully less sleet Actually, wouldn't the sleet help lay a foundation for the snow to accumulate in roads and such? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Actually, wouldn't the sleet help lay a foundation for the snow to accumulate in roads and such? why do you want that? Either way, if its below freezing, melting snow will turn into black ice, with snow to stick on top...not much difference IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Euro sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Euro sucks Compared to its epic run, yes Its not like you're actually gonna get 5-8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 NWS upped Loudoun to 2 to 4" ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Looks like i picked the perfect week to travel to Cumberland, MD... Rain and sleet in the evening. Snow. Snow and sleet accumulation of 4 to 8 inches. Lows in the mid 20s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Forecast highs for today certainly have come down. Now we're looking for upper 40s in Bmore today rather than a temp closer to 60. That will certainly help us out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 some heavy returns to our west http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/centgrtlakes_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Forecast highs for today certainly have come down. Now we're looking for upper 40s in Bmore today rather than a temp closer to 60. That will certainly help us out. I know for example that on Friday or maybe even Saturday morning, my NWS forecast for today was 66. Now its 48, and I'm wondering if it can reach that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I doubt our temps get much more than mid 40's in Balt today winds have already shifted to the N and wind streamlines and slp map show Low is almost on the coast http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=st&inv=0&t=cur http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=pr&inv=0&t=cur http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=3p&inv=0&t=cur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Slightly OT: Just want to thank you all for posting the maps. My daughter is learning about weather in Science (1st grade) and she was asking about the maps. It gave me a wonderful opportunity to explain the graphs and maps to her. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Winds switched to the north IMBY a little over an hour ago, and the temp has fallen from 51 to 44. DCA went from 53 to 49. I don't think any of the models, including the HRRR, had us going N until noonish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I may have to make some last-minute changes to my forecast if the temperature boundary can hold like it is, especially across the MD panhandle and into northern MD (adjusting upward). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 From ze blog: This forecast is for the second part of the two-part rain/snow event. What I have is not too different from what the models show now, save for some lesser amounts in northern MD. The changeover from rain to snow and the surface temperatures will be the biggest players in inhibiting snowfall totals. The models have probably underforecast the warmth in MD on Monday before the front makes its way through from north to south. However, once the changeover is made, moderate to heavy snowfall after a brief period of moderate sleet could lead to decent totals from DC northwards through central PA. The best combination of colder air and intense snowfall seems to be in southwestern PA, where a band of 4-8"+ is possible. I also included a small area of 8-12" for upsloping and cooler surface temperatures in the Appalachians in southern PA. The band of higher totals could shift north/south a bit depending on the placement of the low as it passes over the region. You have this thing about the NW burbs of DC into Virginia....oh well...good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 I may have to make some last-minute changes to my forecast if the temperature boundary can hold like it is, especially across the MD panhandle and into northern MD (adjusting upward). I think 3-6" for Frederick, Carroll, and N. Balt counties is a good bet. Folks...please keep obs in the obs thread. Ji has started one for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 You have The weather has this thing about the NW burbs of DC into Virginia....oh well...good luck. Fixed Don't fret too much, though... like I said, I may have to adjust things south anyway! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 WOW..NAM really increases the QPF .62 at JYO of frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 NAM..WAAAAAAAAY colder and Wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 700 RH map looks sweet @ 18. Rates are going to be pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Wow ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Wow ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 6-8 for Loudoun 3-6 for DC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 7" IMBY and it screws Philly, NYC and Boston? Yes please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 NAM makes sense when you look at colder temps in the N-MA and the radar echos out west we'll see soon enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 6-8 for Loudoun 3-6 for DC? Per NAM both places are the same at around 4 to 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 From the NAM, these are MECS totals for some of those who are currently in a watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 7" IMBY and it screws Philly, NYC and Boston? Yes please DC/Baltimore specials are not as rare as some people think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 NAM makes sense when you look at colder temps in the N-MA and the radar echos out west we'll see soon enough this is about the time you want to see models get wetter and colder. I don't think even Wes can pessimistic about this run. Damn, I wish I was in HGR now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I'll update my forecast once the 12z NAM/GFS come in. Looking to go 2-4" for DC and 4-8" for Frederick/BWI, with 1-2" (2-4"?) in NoVA and southern MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 NAM makes sense when you look at colder temps in the N-MA and the radar echos out west we'll see soon enough Agreed. Boundary clearly farther south already than what was modeled earlier. Best lift may end up being over central MD and NOVA. If I've reached my high for the day then not a lot of precip is going to be wasted on rain. Could be some good rates too. Sim radar and 700 maps look great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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