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Feb 22 Snow Threat


WxUSAF

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Looks like i picked the perfect week to travel to Cumberland, MD...

Rain and sleet in the evening. Snow. Snow and sleet accumulation of 4 to 8 inches. Lows in the mid 20s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.

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Forecast highs for today certainly have come down. Now we're looking for upper 40s in Bmore today rather than a temp closer to 60. That will certainly help us out.

I know for example that on Friday or maybe even Saturday morning, my NWS forecast for today was 66. Now its 48, and I'm wondering if it can reach that.

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I doubt our temps get much more than mid 40's in Balt today

winds have already shifted to the N and wind streamlines and slp map show Low is almost on the coast

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=st&inv=0&t=cur

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=pr&inv=0&t=cur

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=3p&inv=0&t=cur

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From ze blog:

This forecast is for the second part of the two-part rain/snow event. What I have is not too different from what the models show now, save for some lesser amounts in northern MD. The changeover from rain to snow and the surface temperatures will be the biggest players in inhibiting snowfall totals. The models have probably underforecast the warmth in MD on Monday before the front makes its way through from north to south. However, once the changeover is made, moderate to heavy snowfall after a brief period of moderate sleet could lead to decent totals from DC northwards through central PA. The best combination of colder air and intense snowfall seems to be in southwestern PA, where a band of 4-8"+ is possible.

20110221-22_MAsnowFinal.png

I also included a small area of 8-12" for upsloping and cooler surface temperatures in the Appalachians in southern PA. The band of higher totals could shift north/south a bit depending on the placement of the low as it passes over the region.

You have this thing about the NW burbs of DC into Virginia....oh well...good luck.

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I may have to make some last-minute changes to my forecast if the temperature boundary can hold like it is, especially across the MD panhandle and into northern MD (adjusting upward).

I think 3-6" for Frederick, Carroll, and N. Balt counties is a good bet.

Folks...please keep obs in the obs thread. Ji has started one for this storm.

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NAM makes sense when you look at colder temps in the N-MA and the radar echos out west

we'll see soon enough

Agreed. Boundary clearly farther south already than what was modeled earlier. Best lift may end up being over central MD and NOVA. If I've reached my high for the day then not a lot of precip is going to be wasted on rain. Could be some good rates too. Sim radar and 700 maps look great.

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