Interstate Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Is no one considering this a real threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Ask again in 30 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 We'll see what happens but there is plenty of evidence of soil warming going on - Green grasses already starting to show up on my back lawn - BAD SIGN. Warm ground plus stronger sun angle = conversational snowfall but probably little to no accums. Gonna need 975 trillion huge truckloads of qpf and tremendous dynamics to get the snow to stick - This isn't threading the needle, it is threading it 500 times in a nanosecond with quantum entanglement. Tough luck, living in the southern Mid Atlantic ------ And I'm here for LIFE - Mark my words, I am never gonna get out alive Might as well face up to it, as painful as it is - Spring has arrived early in northern Virginia. I get to cry a river for the next 9 months. That SE Ridge is not going to show us a shred of mercy. Ginx and Weathafella will be happy though as they break all time SNE snow records going back 100 years. This is my punishment - I blew it back in autumn making fun of Weathafella, telling him he needed to come on down to N VA for decent snow. Well look who has the last laugh now as I endure mid/upper 70s in MID FEBRUARY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 We'll see what happens but there is plenty of evidence of soil warming going on - Green grasses already starting to show up on my back lawn - BAD SIGN. Warm ground plus stronger sun angle = conversational snowfall but probably little to no accums. Gonna need 975 trillion huge truckloads of qpf and tremendous dynamics to get the snow to stick - This isn't threading the needle, it is threading it 500 times in a nanosecond with quantum entanglement. Tough luck, living in the southern Mid Atlantic ------ And I'm here for LIFE - Mark my words, I am never gonna get out alive This is overstating things a bit. It's not even Presidents Day yet. Yes, it's warm now, but the right storm will surely lead to accumulating snow 100 hours from now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 This is overstating things a bit. It's not even Presidents Day yet. Yes, it's warm now, but the right storm will surely lead to accumulating snow 100 hours from now.. I admire your optimism - But I can't help but think of the times this winter when our hopes rose on a storm 100 hours from now only to have 'em dashed. Hope you are right. Geeze.......... 60 degrees at 11pm and I am in the SUBURBS GEEZE. Hello Spring. If we had dews in the low 60s - This could be June like weather in Feb OUCH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 I admire your optimism - But I can't help but think of the times this winter when our hopes rose on a storm 100 hours from now only to have 'em dashed. Hope you are right. Geeze.......... 60 degrees at 11pm and I am in the SUBURBS GEEZE. Hello Spring. If we had dews in the low 60s - This could be June like weather in Feb OUCH Speechless... in other news...0z is not as strong with the HP to the north with the first system, allowing it to come a little further north... will be interesting to see if this could possibly lead to a warmer storm #2 solution...yuck 0z gfs hr 84 - http://www.nco.ncep....fs_pcp_084s.gif 0z nam hr 84 - http://www.nco.ncep....am_pcp_084s.gif rather large difference...don't want it to do what the 0z GFS just did... still would be a heavy rain to snow at the tail end ... maybe 1-2 on grassy areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Toasty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 i have pictures of flowers prior to mar 09. the sun is getting pretty strong.. a few days of warm is going to get things in motion. but yeah it's still feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 man it's close but the gfs likes the powerful little punch idea still http://www.nco.ncep....fs_700_102m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 man it's close but the gfs likes the powerful little punch idea still http://www.nco.ncep....fs_700_102m.gif Weird solution-- verbatim, that punch of heavy precip before 6Z Tuesday is not all rain. The plunge in surface temperature leads the drop in the 850's, with 20's already in central MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 sv snow maps has 2-4 is edison to abe to south of ipt then sussex co del 4-8 lbi to hamilton to sellersville to to kutztown to lewistown then dc to kent/sussex co border to cape may pt. 8-12 york pa to gettysburg to bedford pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Well we have something to track folks...Ill put the over/under on snow total for DCA at 2.5" for this storm haha...at least we have something to look at over the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 At 102, 850s are +3 across N VA... at 108, they are -7... 10c drop in the 850s in 6 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Speechless... in other news...0z is not as strong with the HP to the north with the first system, allowing it to come a little further north... will be interesting to see if this could possibly lead to a warmer storm #2 solution...yuck 0z gfs hr 84 - http://www.nco.ncep....fs_pcp_084s.gif 0z nam hr 84 - http://www.nco.ncep....am_pcp_084s.gif rather large difference...don't want it to do what the 0z GFS just did... still would be a heavy rain to snow at the tail end ... maybe 1-2 on grassy areas ? .25-.5 falls after the rain ends. This isn't a marginal storm once the cold air works itself in and seeing that its progged to fall during the night it would definately be decent ratios (at least 10 to 1) so I'd say maybe 3-6'' verbatum on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Weird solution-- verbatim, that punch of heavy precip before 6Z Tuesday is not all rain. The plunge in surface temperature leads the drop in the 850's, with 20's already in central MD. yeah i wouldnt think so. it looks like there would be convective stuff in the core area. n md would get slammed pretty good -- guess it's a climo storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Looks like there could be some good dynamics with this system...heavy rain changing to a heavy snow with wind...massive temp drop...one thing to keep in mind concerning the sun angle etc...from here on out any light to moderate snow that falls between 11-3 during the day doesn't have much of a chance of sticking to roads etc unless temps are in the 20's. That's why i see some potential with this one as we would change over in the early morning hrs and be done by noon. A quick 6 hr snowstorm...sound familiar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 ? .25-.5 falls after the rain ends. This isn't a marginal storm once the cold air works itself in and seeing that its progged to fall during the night it would definately be decent ratios (at least 10 to 1) so I'd say maybe 3-6'' verbatum on this run. For my area (annapolis) it's gonna be hard to get 3-6" with this setup...north central md on the other hand.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Again-- just looking at verbatim of this crazy run--- we get snow on grass with temps in the mid-30's Sunday evening. Then, Monday afternoon we spike up to the mid-60's, before plunging after dark as the precipitation gets steady... transition to freezing rain or sleet sometime around midnight, then to snow as the temperature falls further to around 20 F or the upper teens by Tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 euro? GGem? It seems no one is really paying attention. We will see how this plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 6z is supressed... amazing lol. At this point Im actually liking that its supressed. that means the middle solution is a mid atlantic nova/MD hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 6z is supressed... amazing lol. At this point Im actually liking that its supressed. that means the middle solution is a mid atlantic nova/MD hit. Unlike last year, that usually is not the case this year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 surprised the 0z GGEM wasn't posted. Not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Anyone see the euro intermediate panels? From the free stuff it looks like it is quite a bit warmer than the gfs and may track the wave farther north giving the dc almost all rain with the wave MOnday night Tuesday. Is that a decent interpretation of it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Anyone see the euro intermediate panels? From the free stuff it looks like it is quite a bit warmer than the gfs and may track the wave farther north giving the dc almost all rain with the wave MOnday night Tuesday. Is that a decent interpretation of it? a compromise of the EURO and 6Z GFS would be a nice little hit of snow perhaps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Anyone see the euro intermediate panels? From the free stuff it looks like it is quite a bit warmer than the gfs and may track the wave farther north giving the dc almost all rain with the wave MOnday night Tuesday. Is that a decent interpretation of it? The back end turns to snow on the 00z Euro... ~1-3 inches just looking at 850s and precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 The back end turns to snow on the 00z Euro... ~1-3 inches just looking at 850s and precip. given the GGEM, GFS and now the look of the 12z NAM this is looking okay at this point for us. NAM has plenty of cold air just to our north and moving in as the precip is beginning to organize to our west. This will be a fun threat to track! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 given the GGEM, GFS and now the look of the 12z NAM this is looking okay at this point for us. NAM has plenty of cold air just to our north and moving in as the precip is beginning to organize to our west. This will be a fun threat to track! I started to jump on board the snow threat last night... pending that it holds (which I'm fairly sure it will) with tomorrow's model updates I'll issue a snowfall forecast tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Granted that I know little, but with each passing run, this, to me, looks more and more like a legit threat. The look of the NAM this morning sure looks like fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Pleasant and 70s today, all while following a potential snow event for early next week! Talk about pass the popcorn! Almost makes one wonder if there's a Presidents' Day climatology built in to the models, as the possible snow would be the night of and day after PD itself! I joke of course, but in all honesty that particular point in mid-late February does seem to be "favored" for snow events of some kind historically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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