yoda Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 30 hrs -- 850s are -4/-5 at DCA/IAD.... BWI/FDK/HGR are at -6. Surface 32 degree along a line from I would guess Luray to EZF? North of there is below freezing Gah... I don't have the 30 hr QPF panel... I only have the 24 and the 36. The 24 has a nice juicy slug of moisture -- 0.5+ QPF in WV, N KY, S OH and a small area of 0.75+ QPF in C WV/ SE OH. The 30 hr I don't have. 36 hr QPF map is .1-.25 for all, which is snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Gah... I don't have the 30 hr QPF panel... I only have the 24 and the 36. The 24 has a nice juicy slug of moisture -- 0.5+ QPF in WV, N KY, S OH and a small area of 0.75+ QPF in C WV/ SE OH. The 30 hr I don't have. 36 hr QPF map is .1-.25 for all, which is snow Fogive the silly question, but are those 6-h amounts, or 12? (Edit: not as familiar with the UKIE's typical output). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Gah... I don't have the 30 hr QPF panel... I only have the 24 and the 36. The 24 has a nice juicy slug of moisture -- 0.5+ QPF in WV, N KY, S OH and a small area of 0.75+ QPF in C WV/ SE OH. The 30 hr I don't have. 36 hr QPF map is .1-.25 for all, which is snow if 36 is .10 to .25 than 30 is probably .40 to .50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 if 36 is .10 to .25 than 30 is probably .40 to .50 We can guess, yes. For a reference point... at 24 hrs -- BWI/FDK/HGR are AT or BELOW FREEZING. IAD/DCA probably are 33/34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 We can guess, yes. For a reference point... at 24 hrs -- BWI/FDK/HGR are AT or BELOW FREEZING. IAD/DCA probably are 33/34 Guessing the 850s are then very near or below freezing across the board at all those locations (if they are well below by 30-h). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Guessing the 850s are then very near or below freezing across the board at all those locations (if they are well below by 30-h). The 850s are a bit behind the freezing line at 24... but catch up at 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 FWIW -- http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Hr 27 is the changeover in IAD... hour 28 at DCA. snow in BWI/FDK/MRB/HGR at hr 27 28-33 snow... 34-38 light snow/flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Anyone staying up for the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Anyone staying up for the Euro? I am...might have to hop over to the philly thread for it though... anybody wanna do euro pbp? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I am...might have to hop over to the philly thread for it though... How come? People more hardcore over there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 From ze blog: This forecast is for the second part of the two-part rain/snow event. What I have is not too different from what the models show now, save for some lesser amounts in northern MD. The changeover from rain to snow and the surface temperatures will be the biggest players in inhibiting snowfall totals. The models have probably underforecast the warmth in MD on Monday before the front makes its way through from north to south. However, once the changeover is made, moderate to heavy snowfall after a brief period of moderate sleet could lead to decent totals from DC northwards through central PA. The best combination of colder air and intense snowfall seems to be in southwestern PA, where a band of 4-8"+ is possible. I also included a small area of 8-12" for upsloping and cooler surface temperatures in the Appalachians in southern PA. The band of higher totals could shift north/south a bit depending on the placement of the low as it passes over the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 anyone have the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Dunno where Ji is... but I will give it the good ole try on the 00z EURO At 24, 850 0c line is BWI-FDK... basically N and NE MD below 0c 850. DCA/IAD +2 EZF +4. 1003 L in S KY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Dunno where Ji is... but I will give it the good ole try on the 00z EURO At 24, 850 0c line is BWI-FDK... basically N and NE MD below 0c 850. DCA/IAD +2 EZF +4. 1003 L in S KY Do you have QPF amounts?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 anyone have the euro? a little lighter on qpf than 12Z basically similar to other models now with around .3" qpf +/- as snow from what I can see on 6 hr intervals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 a little lighter on qpf than 12Z basically similar to other models now with around .3" qpf +/- as snow from what I can see on 6 hr intervals Mitch... how are the 850s at 30? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 03z SREFs 0c 850 line just south of DC at 24. 2m 0 temp line (aka 32 degree line) follows suit basically. Still 0.25"+ QPF snow for LWX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 06z NAM at 24 850s -- http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/06/images/nam_850_024l.gif 700 rh/Omegas -- http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/06/images/nam_700_024l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 351 AM EST MON FEB 21 2011 MDZ003-501-502-VAZ028-031-WVZ050>053-503-504-211700- /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0004.110222T0200Z-110222T1200Z/ WASHINGTON-EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY- FREDERICK VA-CLARKE-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON- WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAGERSTOWN...FROSTBURG...CUMBERLAND... WINCHESTER...MARTINSBURG...CHARLES TOWN...ELK GARDEN...KEYSER... FORT ASHBY 351 AM EST MON FEB 21 2011 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...MAINLY SNOW. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET IS POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET. * ACCUMULATIONS...A POTENTIAL FOR FIVE OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW. * TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN THIS EVENING AND LAST OVERNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6AM. * TEMPERATURES...LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE MIDDLE 20S. * WINDS...NORTH-NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 :unsure: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 06z GFS at 24... 0c 850 line down by EZF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 :unsure: Why the eyes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Why the eyes? surface 0 line is much quicker clearing DCA/IAD then 0c 850 line on the 6z GFS run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Ya your right. Hopefully less sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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