BethesdaWX Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 18z OP GFS looks a tad slower? Sharp Gradient puts DCA on the brink, North & central MD score I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 GFS looks a little colder thru 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 36 0c 850 line just north of EZF... -3 line just north of DCA/IAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 A step in the right direction, but not there yet. At least the NAM and GFS have improved, albeit slightly. Better than the other way around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Looks like models trending towards Euro, been awhile since that happened in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 despite the comment about ice earlier which should be a non factor, the models have consistently dropped the freezing line at the surface south before the 850c does. gfs looks near or below freezing for much of the event dc and north this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Looks like .3 QPF of snow? Hr 36 surface and 850s are cold enough with 0.25 QPF... 42 hr another .1 IAD/DCA/BWI shows up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 GFS seems to be holding precip back a couple of hours, bringing in cold a couple hours earlier. I would think that has to be a good development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Looks like .3 QPF of snow? somewhere in there depending on where you are.. was thinking .2-.3 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Hr 36 surface and 850s are cold enough with 0.25 QPF.. unless you're right near the md/pa border you want to cut that up to half down this way i'd think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 somewhere in there depending on where you are.. was thinking .2-.3 here. I am just south of you by about 20 miles lol. 12 hr QPF from hrs 30-42 put all of us in .25-50" QPF. We should switch over to snow (I am guessing here) around hr 34ish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 unless you're right near the md/pa border you want to cut that up to half down this way i'd think This isn't the NAM Surface seems cold enough. Why cut it in half? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Pretty good trends this afternoon on the Euro, NAM and GFS...good stuff...I think 1-3 right now is a good bet dc to balt, with 3-5 from balt up to pa...if we can get the precip to fill in from the mountains across our area I think we could up those totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 This is starting to look like a pretty good bet for 4-6" from Baltimore North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I'd think GFS suggests between 0.3-0.4" QPF falling as snow? Surface looks mighty good. I'd be happy with a 2-4" event, warmer ground is a negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 This is starting to look like a pretty good bet for 4-6" from Baltimore North. why...the Euro has the heaviest precip in DC/IAD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 the driest model usually(the euro) is the wettest for this storm and has been consistent. I am going 3-6 for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 why...the Euro has the heaviest precip in DC/IAD? Yes but from where i am we waste less on rain, and on the EURO it gave BWI .66 while it is all snow if i am not mistaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 This isn't the NAM Surface seems cold enough. Why cut it in half? because the 850 line takes 6 hrs to get from the pa border to where it is at 6z and it's not all snow as it moves and you're seeing qpf from that 6 hours which includes some prior to the flip. nevertheless, here's the 33 plot.. looks like not a super ton of precip in there, with 850 near dc at 3z. here's what actually falls in that timeframe: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I don't know. The 18z GFS is a step closer to the Euro. Things aren't done evolving. 3-6 DCA and IAD not off the table by any means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 hopefully this storm pans out for DT sake. He has been very bullish on this storm for a while for the DC area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 hopefully this storm pans out for DT sake. He has been very bullish on this storm for a while for the DC area I hear Larry Cosgrove is now on board as well, i cannot believe you have not posted what your best friend JB is saying about this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 1-2" bank on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 1-2" bank on it. BOLD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 hopefully this storm pans out for DT sake. He has been very bullish on this storm for a while for the DC area LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 hopefully this storm pans out for DT sake. He has been very bullish on this storm for a while for the DC area dt was more sacred when no one else had access to the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 BOLD. Well I could have been in fantasy land and said something crazy like.....4 to 6 inches is a good bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 dt was more sacred when no one else had access to the euro It is a good thing alot of us are still cheap asses or no one would even listen to him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 dt was more sacred when no one else had access to the euro Dave said anyone in our area thinking it is going to snow is full of crap...he says there is no chance of snow here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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