MD Snow Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Judging by the simulated radar the heaviest axis of precip is in PA still...which will cut down on any accumulations big time down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Time to move north The trouble with this system is the band is so narrow. I'm still playing things conservatively on the blog but if the nam makes on more shift south, if so,we don't get dry slotted, we'd do OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I believe the EURO shows it snowing from about 1AM - 10 AM? So we will get some help with it happening at night Yup. And I mentioned sun angle in describing the myriad of excuses we here throughout the year especially around this time, wasn't specifically talking about an event that's obviously happening at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 NAM ain't so bad folks 6 hours ending 42 hrs is all snow comparing to the 36 hr map you have to understand that the precip area is moving ESE so at 36 hrs it looks like we are dryslotted, but the precip area in SPA moves over us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 The trouble with this system is the band is so narrow. I'm still playing things conservatively on the blog but if the nam makes on more shift south, if so,we don't get dry slotted, we'd do OK. I'd take the NAM if forced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 its an improvement over 12Z, and that's a good thing still time for baby steps to add up to a Euro scenario on the NAM imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 FWIW...nothing.... in the Summer when the NAM shows rain for my area it generally ends up SE of where modeled....so I usually get a bit excited if it is showing stuff just to my North prior to the event and I always feel uncomfortable if it is showing right over me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 my gut says we fill in precip qpf east of the mts on subsequent runs http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_p60_060l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 It's a nail biter for sure but at least all models show some snow for MD and NOVA . That is a huge plus. Low track is fine and temps are fine. Hedging towards a wetter solution than the 18z nam seems reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I'd take the NAM if forced Well at least it would give us snow and some people would see accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Well at least it would give us snow and some people would see accumulations. I'd take the EURO of course as well, but I went with 3" like 5 days ago at DCA so I'll prob have to root for that. This map isnt as pleasing as the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 It's happened plenty of times. Not sure why people keep buying into the myth that it can't stick, etc due to warm temps/sun angle. Sure, it will take wasted qpf to do that, but with decent rates and dropping temps, it can stick. I'll chime in on that one. This morning, 9am or so, I took a walk across my yard and the top layer was frozen. Now, it wasn't that cold here last night, 26 or so, and the ground was only frozen on the very top as in many places I just pushed right through it to soft, wet ground. But the point is it takes more than just a few days of warmth to warm the ground to any sig. depth. Just one week ago yesterday we had snow on the ground. We've had frozen ground since early December. It won't take as much for snow to stick as many think, especially if the temps are really crashing. Perhaps a struggle on roadways, but heavy rates will overcome all that. This is assuming that we get snow in the first place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 It's interesting to see how the trend towards warm/wet has reversed to cold/snow as we approach the event. Now we are inside of 48 hours so drastic swings have become much less likely. I kinda have a feeling that the 18z gfs will look better than 12z. Of course the ultimate outcome would be for the Euro to hold its 12z solution and let everything else play catchup. Not the most likely outcome but who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 my gut says we fill in precip qpf east of the mts on subsequent runs http://www.nco.ncep....am_p60_060l.gif I was just thinking this exact same thing. Do the models have issues with precip moving over the mountains? I know there is some loss of moisture but this looks a little drastic to me. I remember before Jan 26th the models were showing something similar, then the QPF began to fill in east of the apps. I think if you are at BWI or N and W you should be feeling decent about at least a couple inches as a feasible goal at this point.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I'll chime in on that one. This morning, 9am or so, I took a walk across my yard and the top layer was frozen. Now, it wasn't that cold here last night, 26 or so, and the ground was only frozen on the very top as in many places I just pushed right through it to soft, wet ground. But the point is it takes more than just a few days of warmth to warm the ground to any sig. depth. Just one week ago yesterday we had snow on the ground. We've had frozen ground since early December. It won't take as much for snow to stick as many think, especially if the temps are really crashing. Perhaps a struggle on roadways, but heavy rates will overcome all that. This is assuming that we get snow in the first place. it's not that hard to get snow to stick to grass in almost any situation other than one where it's like snizzle snow in the middle of the day and/or with marginal temps. even surfaces which can readily absorb and hold heat arent getting much or any direct sunshine from here forward thru the event. rain beforehand could be a factor unless we flash freeze which the models seem to indicate we might. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I was just thinking this exact same thing. Do the models have issues with precip moving over the mountains? I know there is some loss of moisture but this looks a little drastic to me. I remember before Jan 26th the models were showing something similar, then the QPF began to fill in east of the apps. I think if you are at BWI or N and W you should be feeling decent about at least a couple inches as a feasible goal at this point.. my initial guestimate from earlier today was 1-3" DCA metro and 2-4" BWI metro area I haven't seen anything to make me change my mind.........yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 the euro will win. The nam has already trended colder and will be more south tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 it's not that hard to get snow to stick to grass in almost any situation other than one where it's like snizzle snow in the middle of the day and/or with marginal temps. even surfaces which can readily absorb and hold heat arent getting much or any direct sunshine from here forward thru the event. rain beforehand could be a factor unless we flash freeze which the models seem to indicate we might. Agree, and with temps really heading down, at night, I don't think we would have any trouble seeing accumulation. Cold rain for a few hours before doesn't hurt either. Biggest question is timing of temp drop along with amounts of precip. Looks to me that the NAM came back to us in a big way. Bad thing, can it be trusted? It's been pretty wild. I do like the fact that the Euro has been quite consistent and evidently looks good. Not being able to see it is frustrating, and I sure would like to know the timing of the cold (enough) air and the amount of precip that falls after it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 my initial guestimate from earlier today was 1-3" DCA metro and 2-4" BWI metro area I haven't seen anything to make me change my mind.........yet I think that initial guess may very well be right on target. I'll take it. 2-4 would probably put me at about average. I'll take that considering how ****e this winter has treated us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Agree, and with temps really heading down, at night, I don't think we would have any trouble seeing accumulation. Cold rain for a few hours before doesn't hurt either. Biggest question is timing of temp drop along with amounts of precip. Looks to me that the NAM came back to us in a big way. Bad thing, can it be trusted? It's been pretty wild. I do like the fact that the Euro has been quite consistent and evidently looks good. Not being able to see it is frustrating, and I sure would like to know the timing of the cold (enough) air and the amount of precip that falls after it. I guess maybe I'm just being pessimistic but to me there is still more that can go wrong in the final stretch than right. That said the Euro has seemingly been locked in (maybe not on precip amounts) so that should be a little comforting. It should be a climo storm one way or another so I'd definitely be more comfortable in elevation away from the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 looks like zwyts is posting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 looks like zwyts is posting Where were you during brunch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Where were you during brunch? g/f was here-- im free tonight i think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Mount Holly calling for general 1-3 inches Monday night/Tuesday morning for their eastern MD counties, Delaware, SE PA and southern NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 This thread kinda went gay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 g/f was here-- im free tonight i think I cannot believe you talk to her during snow season . The last time i talked to my wife was early December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steinweather Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Mount Holly just updated their snowfall forecast totals. I went from 0 to 1.4 inches in Rehoboth Beach, De. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Mount Holly just updated their snowfall forecast totals. I went from 0 to 1.4 inches in Rehoboth Beach, De. 2.4" would bring me just about exactly to seasonal avg snowfall for here, which is 18.5". Not bad considering the La Nina. Bless that -NAO lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 GFS seems a little stronger with the second wave through 24 hrs 850's about the same ever so slightly colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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