stormtracker Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 When's the last time we saw highs in the 50s/60s the day before snow? Is it possible to know the last time that happened? It's happened plenty of times. Not sure why people keep buying into the myth that it can't stick, etc due to warm temps/sun angle. Sure, it will take wasted qpf to do that, but with decent rates and dropping temps, it can stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I haven't looked at the Euro maps but I think the bigger question for me is why does the Euro spit out 1" of qpf while the GFS is relatively dry in comparison? What are the major 500 & 850 difs that cause the model to be so wet and snowy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pojrzsho Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 what the heck is that little moderate risk area in extreme southern MD/east central VA? That's called King George, Va Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 It's happened plenty of times. Not sure why people keep buying into the myth that it can't stick, etc due to warm temps/sun angle. Sure, it will take wasted qpf to do that, but with decent rates and dropping temps, it can stick. yup its about intensity and as long as temps are 30-33... plus its occurring at night- it will stick. this happens in Denver all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Sun angle isn't a big issue at night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 When's the last time we saw highs in the 50s/60s the day before snow? Is it possible to know the last time that happened? I think I remember something in 2003, or sometime near then? Remember in was 70 degrees the day before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Sun angle isn't a big issue at night I believe the EURO shows it snowing from about 1AM - 10 AM? So we will get some help with it happening at night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Sun angle isn't a big issue at night Moon angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 18z NAM won't do it south of Mason Dixon line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Moon angle. Offset by albedo. The biggest relief is that it isn't daylight savings yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 18z NAM looks a bit south at 24hr? Can't really tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I believe the EURO shows it snowing from about 1AM - 10 AM? So we will get some help with it happening at nightroads may hold heat fairly well... Prob need uber rates for more than slush. Timing is about perfect tho.. As yes the sun is an issue at this time of yr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 18z NAM looks a bit south at 24hr? Can't really tell. At 30... 0c 850 line is in extreme N MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 18z NAM looks a bit south at 24hr? Can't really tell. at 30 it's south of the 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 At 30... 0c 850 line is in extreme N MD Surface or 850? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Yeah definitely south, not sure I like this run either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Surface or 850? 0c 850 line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pojrzsho Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 30 hr 18Z NAM def nudged S compared to 36 12Z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 36 DCA/IAD/BWI 850's -6c Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Boom at 36, looks like a good run. Colder 850's at 36 compared to 42 @12z, more to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Dry slot http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_ref_036s.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 36 hr panel is a bit warm thickness wise, but 42 hour panel might not look to bad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pojrzsho Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Colder n further S at 36....this is good stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 NAM is decent, thinking 00z will come towards euro, its been rock solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 36 looks good enough for something accum I guess. Man, a precip band as wide as a bandaid is stressful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Time to move north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I am going to guess probably .2-.3 is snow this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Yes surface QPF print-outs somewhat less important, but still see that dryslot too close for comfort in N-C VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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