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Feb 22 Snow Threat


WxUSAF

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That would make me happy! After enjoying the warmth of today, winter can suck it. How warm is it looking, per the Euro?

Looks like 60ish Fri and 70ish Sat. Another big low north of the Lakes.

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I wouldn't be surpised at all if it snowed Monday night and if the cold outbreak were to somewhat verify. There was no way that we got through the whole winter without a stretch of warmth like we're having now. I'm still thinking that all 3 airports hit climo or above......even if the snow only stays on the ground for 48 hours afterwards. lol

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18z giveth and the 0z taketh away.... maybe....

I'm a conservative weenie and I have a feeling DCA picks up 2" and the burbs up to 4". 850 and 500 looked good enough to at least give us a fair shot at something. at least we're not battling a double low structure with a weaking OV low and transfer. temps would be disasterous.

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for BWI, my guess is 90%+ of it is snow based on 850s, surface and thicknesses during event

Book it!

Seriously though. I really think we got a shot at getting a 2-4" event out of this. Even if it does start as rain. GFS has been pretty good at this range this year. I like the UA look and the timing. Not really a thread the needle as much as it's an all or nothing. Maybe a MA special?

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gfs still seems way overdone but i guess it's plausible especially with the frontrunning low laying down a boundary near the area -- would like to see more consistency (yeah it's had it in various forms but..)

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remain a complete skeptic or this is gonna hurt bad.

With snow threats I'm always a complete optimist from start to finish...anyway...the good thing is that the EURO isn't showing 10' of snow right now...the bad thing is that it's still to far off and the jackpot (if any) will likely be to the north of DC/Balt...very interesting though

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remain a complete skeptic or this is gonna hurt bad.

skeptic of the gfs but all funning aside we have a few weeks left to get some snow. as is this would be about perfect so of course that's unlikely.

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With snow threats I'm always a complete optimist from start to finish...anyway...the good thing is that the EURO isn't showing 10' of snow right now...the bad thing is that it's still to far off and the jackpot (if any) will likely be to the north of DC/Balt...very interesting though

Yea, me too. I'm an optimist in the sense that it's fun to track threats and it's interesting to watch it evolve. I don't get too bummed out when everything falls apart either. What can you do? It's just weather.

Of course, level of optimism will depend on the setup. The GFS has been showing some fairly good ones last couple of days. At least it isn't showing the obvious 500 and 850 problems that just don't correspond well with the surface maps.

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