Ian Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 just going off the euro it looks like 4-6 going off the 850s and surf temp..though the thicknesses to start may argue for some icing. I'm sure we'll get a lot of icing after 60s on Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I'm sure we'll get a lot of icing after 60s on Monday Yeah this is gonna either be snow, sleet or rain..I cant see freezing rain being much of a factor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 The Euro is pretty sick (finally looked at maps)... as we get closer and it holds you gotta wonder why no one is biting. 1"+ into western areas like near Ji.. probably 2/3 snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 The Euro is pretty sick (finally looked at maps)... as we get closer and it holds you gotta wonder why no one is biting. 1"+ into western areas like near Ji.. probably 2/3 snow? I am bought for 2-4'' is a likelihood for BAL, will hold until tonight and be conservative on this one even though it gives BWI .6'' as snow. Better to be safe than sorry, but WSW criteria likely in N MD (HGR, FDK, DMW areas a la 3-6''/4-7'' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 The Euro is pretty sick (finally looked at maps)... as we get closer and it holds you gotta wonder why no one is biting. 1"+ into western areas like near Ji.. probably 2/3 snow? Yeah... this ought to be an interesting forecast... RGEM/EURO vs GFS/NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Forgive me if this was posted earlier. HPC map for event 2 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_04.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Yeah... this ought to be an interesting forecast... RGEM/EURO vs GFS/NAM 2 camps = middle ground? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 2 camps = middle ground? GGEM looks good on the 48 hr map... but i have no idea how much is snow http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_048.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Has euro been bad 24-36 this year? It's been pretty good right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 UKIE at 36 850's are +4 DCA... at 42 0c 850 line is down by EZF. DCA/IAD 850 at hr 42 is -2.0, BWI -4.0. At 48 hrs 850s are around or below -5 for all 3 major airports. At hr 48, the QPF map shows .1-.175, which is all snow I am pretty sure. At hr 36, there is a large slug of QPF of 0.5-.0.75 in Central OH south into Central WV with a sliver of .75-.1 in C WV. This is likely moving east towards us... unfortunately I have no idea whats snow or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Has euro been bad 24-36 this year? It's been pretty good right? It's been about as good as everything else in that range. Maybe a tad warm at times? Nam has been too wet more often than not and the GFS has been probably the overall best performer right? My memory ain't what it used to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 When is it suppose to hit mid 60s tomorrow?euro surface temps are 9c at 12z and 6c at 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Just saw the Euro. It is pretty epic (for this year). Approaches almost an inch area wide, more to the west. I just with the GFS was on board fully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThreeRedheads Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Just saw the Euro. It is pretty epic (for this year). Approaches almost an inch area wide, more to the west. I just with the GFS was on board fully. By epic, you mean an inch of QPF or inch of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Just saw the Euro. It is pretty epic (for this year). Approaches almost an inch area wide, more to the west. I just with the GFS was on board fully. I think the UKIE agrees with the EURO... but I need some met help with QPF and the such Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 By epic, you mean an inch of QPF or inch of snow. I see what you did there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Now, the question is will the 18Z runs suck us right back in and look relatively amazing...or will they look "meh" and make us seriously question what the heck the Euro might be smoking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samdman95 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Now, the question is will the 18Z runs suck us right back in and look relatively amazing...or will they look "meh" and make us seriously question what the heck the Euro might be smoking? The real question is the 0z runs. The off runs have been wildly inconsistent for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I get to be excited now? Gfs was close to same solution too. Here's to hoping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 The real question is the 0z runs. The off runs have been wildly inconsistent for this storm. They are all the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 The real question is the 0z runs. The off runs have been wildly inconsistent for this storm. Yeah I know...but I was being a little sarcastic/humorous too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 By epic, you mean an inch of QPF or inch of snow. QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 NAM might stay close to last run as ETA members of the SREF are naso great IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Forgive me if this was posted earlier. HPC map for event 2 http://www.hpc.ncep....psnow_gt_04.gif what the heck is that little moderate risk area in extreme southern MD/east central VA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redskinsnut Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 it's not all snow tho, but a good bit is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 it's not all snow tho, but a good bit is From what I saw posted by Mitchnick... BWI/DCA are 0.5"+ QPF of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 From what I saw posted by Mitchnick... BWI/DCA are 0.5"+ QPF of snow makes sense.. the first map is pretty much or all rain and about .25"+ across the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 makes sense.. the first map is pretty much or all rain and about .25"+ across the area When's the last time we saw highs in the 50s/60s the day before snow? Is it possible to know the last time that happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Since tomorrow will be a torch, why should anyone on the coastal plain expect the snow to stick? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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