BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 gfs looks decent, relatively speaking. What do surface temps and 850's look like at 42? because I notice DC and Balt are stuck between the 540 line (cold) and 546 line (warm) ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 gfs looks decent, relatively speaking. About .10 or .12 as snow? Our definition of decent is slipping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 It's wetter anyway: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 bad news on the NAM folks I just looked at soundings and there is a warm layer around 775-825 mb precip isn't all snow until hour 47 and by then, its ova' good to see the 10/11 winter keeps on giving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 About .10 or .12 as snow? Our definition of decent is slipping. That's it? I thought it was more. Oh well, almost time for me to checkout on this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 About .10 or .12 as snow? Our definition of decent is slipping. he said relatively speaking Wes.....its still the 10/11 winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 the problem with this event is a minor shift north or south will kill us as there will be a narrow area that gets snow with this 12Z shifted north and screwed DCA/BWI I would suspect the shifts back and forth will continue with each run this is more of a weave the thread than thread the needle event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 the shift north in living color Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 20, 2011 Author Share Posted February 20, 2011 9z SREFs look good for BWI..mean of 0.24" QPF as snow and max of 0.88". Not so good for Sterling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 the problem with this event is a minor shift north or south will kill us as there will be a narrow area that gets snow with this 12Z shifted north and screwed DCA/BWI I would suspect the shifts back and forth will continue with each run this is more of a weave the thread than thread the needle event That's why I've generally been pretty bearish about the event as the band is so narrow that it is more likely not to hit us than hit us. even the gfs which looks somewhat better would pretty much keep accumulations under an inch in most areas. The ground temps being so warm at onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 9z SREFs look good for BWI..mean of 0.24" QPF as snow and max of 0.88". Not so good for Sterling. For dca, the mean is .04. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 For dca, the mean is .04. Wow, really that much of a cutoff between DCA and BWI? I imagine its mainly due to temperatures rather than QPF but still...could be a nowcast storm for some areas.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 How do you see temp profiles in detail? I look at the 850's and they look pretty good to me but it seems like people are saying it's too warm. It looks like it's mainly frozen north of DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 That's it? I thought it was more. Oh well, almost time for me to checkout on this event. I think you meant to say "checkout on this winter". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 How do you see temp profiles in detail? I look at the 850's and they look pretty good to me but it seems like people are saying it's too warm. It looks like it's mainly frozen north of DC This particular site shows the thickness'...at 42 hours DC and Balt are both south of the blue (cold) 540 line which GENERALLY means too warm for snow. http://www.txtornado.net/GFS/_slp_gfs_12z.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 This particular site shows the thickness'...at 42 hours DC and Balt are both south of the blue (cold) 540 line which GENERALLY means too warm for snow. http://www.txtornado...slp_gfs_12z.htm I don't like thickness, you're looking at too big a slice of the atmosphere. You can look at the ptype by hour and temps at this site for selected stations including IAD, DCA and BWI. http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=VA&stn=KDCA&model=nam&time=2011022012&field=prec You also can click on a location anywhere in the country and get a temperature profile at twister (every 3 hrs for the nam and 6 for the gfs). http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?sounding.x=725&sounding.y=303&sndclick=y&prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2010&model_mm=01&model_dd=19&model_init_hh=12&fhour=63¶meter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=y&output=text&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 12Z GFS looks like 2-4" of snow for here. EDIT: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I'll try to get a map up tonight after work, but I'm thinking 1-2" just north of DC to the MD border, with 2-4" in PA/NJ/Western Apps. Some locally higher amounts (up to 2" higher) are possible in these areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 12Z GFS at 384 hours looks pretty interesting! Sorry about that, someone had to say it, just to lighten the mood if nothing else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 20, 2011 Author Share Posted February 20, 2011 RGEM looks good for northern burbs of DC up into southern PA. Shows almost no snow for DC proper though with rain turning to fzra/sleet. But probably low-end warning criteria for extreme Northern VA, WV panhandle, and the PA border counties in MD. Probably advisory level snow for Mont Co, Howard, Balt City, and maybe Anne Arundel. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Randy, was right about the GFS, it gave dca 0.17 as snow and more than that at IAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 so far rd 2 looks to be about the same as 0z maybe a hair wetter...dc area gets hit good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 If you want 2-4'' of snow in Baltimore with this, EURO fully says "sounds good" maybe a bit more for N MD and around the city, QPF not bad neither are temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 DCA MON 18Z 21-FEB 8.7 4.3 1006 70 84 0.02 557 551 TUE 00Z 22-FEB 2.5 1.5 1011 96 100 0.07 555 547 TUE 06Z 22-FEB -0.9 -4.2 1014 88 99 0.39 553 542 TUE 12Z 22-FEB -3.2 -5.7 1017 87 94 0.38 551 537 TUE 18Z 22-FEB -0.9 -5.4 1020 62 48 0.02 550 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 BWI MON 18Z 21-FEB 6.2 3.1 1007 73 91 0.02 555 549 TUE 00Z 22-FEB 2.0 -0.2 1011 87 95 0.06 554 545 TUE 06Z 22-FEB -1.4 -5.1 1015 78 98 0.33 552 540 TUE 12Z 22-FEB -3.7 -6.3 1017 77 97 0.33 549 536 TUE 18Z 22-FEB 0.0 -5.9 1019 52 71 0.02 549 534 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 just going off the euro it looks like 4-6 going off the 850s and surf temp..though the thicknesses to start may argue for some icing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Euro crushes us. Hasn't budged in days. That's why I'm not worried Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Wow at the euro, im bought. GFS wasnt bad either, RGEM also looks quite good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 just going off the euro it looks like 4-6 going off the 850s and surf temp..though the thicknesses to start may argue for some icing. Wow. Go Euro. And that's usually the WARM model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Euro crushes us. Hasn't budged in days. That's why I'm not worried WIth the way the Euro has performed this winter? Eh, it's nice to have it in our camp, but I'd rather have the gfs/NAM on board with 4 to 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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