mitchnick Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 6Z RGEM looks impressive with qpf as the other poster mentioned and there is certainly more to come after this frame per the RH map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 The QPF is starting to become more consistently higher on each of these runs. With the temp resolution of the NAM combined with QPF output of Euro and GFS things are definitely looking interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 it really looks like this is our only chance for snow in the foreseeable future (and there's not much left of winter around here after that time frame) all the models show an Ohio Valley cutter days 5-6 that's rain all the way up the coast until maybe Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 20, 2011 Author Share Posted February 20, 2011 I'm seeing some positive things and the Euro has been holding steady its looking like a 1-3" event around DCA and 2-4" event around BWI, at least that would be my initial guestimate That's certainly possible. I like that the NAM and Euro are consistently the most snowy vs. the least. I think Frederick, Carroll, N. Balt, and Harford counties (plus the higher terrain in WVA, VA, and MD) could be in for warning criteria snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 20, 2011 Author Share Posted February 20, 2011 it really looks like this is our only chance for snow in the foreseeable future (and there's not much left of winter around here after that time frame) all the models show an Ohio Valley cutter days 5-6 that's rain all the way up the coast until maybe Maine The pattern looks stormy in the medium to long range but definitely rainy. Cutter after cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 latest srefs look to be late with the cold air fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Amen, amen. Models got wetter overnight. Things are looking up this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 NAM looks cold and relatively juicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pojrzsho Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 12z NAM is north. Nice hit for NJ. Oh what a surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 looks warmer to me NAM looks cold and relatively juicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Yeah we get basically dry slotted...this is what the UKMET has been showing for a couple days. And what the NAM showed I think thursday night at 84 before coming south...lol yeah 12z nam is almost all rain with a couple flurries to end...the axis of heavy precip is in Pa. DC north is .25-.50...DC south is dry slotted...hopefully this was just a burp because the NAM just shifted about 50-100 miles north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 12Z NAM almost looks like it's going to be nothing more than a glorified cold frontal passage with perhaps a little snow at the end before it dries out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 12z NAM isn't as bad as I first glanced but I am definitely turned off by the trend. More north and warmer. I don't like where this is headed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 12z NAM isn't as bad as I first glanced but I am definitely turned off by the trend. More north and warmer. I don't like where this is headed. Right now according to that, it's headed for Philly and NJ! But yes, I don't like seeing this trend. Farther north, warmer for a longer time, and we're essentially getting dry-slotted...then the front goes through. Yippeee! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 The NAM isn't so bad. For some reason, LWX is calling for Sunny on Tuesday but the NAM has snow showers Tuesday morning after sunrise and chilly conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 The 12z GFS will be very telling. If the GFS goes north again as well along with the NAM, then I think we are in trouble. As it stands I still like the temps at least with the NAM. Just looking at the 850's it looks like a good shot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Correct, it's not so bad. Not sure why the initial reaction. Are people holding out hope for a major event? Because I don't know that has ever really been in the cards. But a 2-4 inches of wet snow still a shot, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I am glad I'll be out of town this week and didn't have to track this disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I am glad I'll be out of town this week and didn't have to track this disaster. Thank you for checking in. Do you need someone to walk your poodle and attack your home's stink bug invasion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Correct, it's not so bad. Not sure why the initial reaction. Are people holding out hope for a major event? Because I don't know that has ever really been in the cards. But a 2-4 inches of wet snow still a shot, I think. 2-4" may be possible up toward Baltimore, sure, but nowhere near that just south of there toward DC. At least according to the latest NAM. I don't think anyone was "holding out" for a major event or expecting that...well, not most people, anyhow. I suppose that depends on one's definition of major, but really I don't think anyone was thinking 4-8" or something like that. However, not all that long ago this was looking like one of the better events of this year (I know, that doesn't say a lot!). In fact, it appeared potentially disruptive for later Monday night into Tuesday morning with snow and temperatures crashing into the mid (or even low?) 20s. One can look back and argue how realistic that was in the models, but I think a lot of people saw the impressive drop in temperatures and a decent shot at a period of moderate or better snow, which would occur just before and through rush hour Tuesday morning. This still could be interesting, and perhaps even "disruptive" in this area depending on how things shape up and what we see in future model runs. I think the disappointment is that once again another nice looking event is slipping through our fingers. Not disappointment that this won't be a "major event". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Correct, it's not so bad. Not sure why the initial reaction. Are people holding out hope for a major event? Because I don't know that has ever really been in the cards. But a 2-4 inches of wet snow still a shot, I think. Last night's 0z run was one of the best runs of the NAM and even that was .3 something of snow...this run will have less than .2" of snow and with the wet warm ground I don't see how we're gonna see more than an inch max out of this if that run of the NAM were to verify. On top of that the heaviest precip will be in PA, in order for us to get accumulating snow we need heavy precip rates...the 12z NAM is just not gonna cut it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Channeling Woody Allen; "I'm two with nature!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 9z sref went north with the heaviest precip too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Again, it's a matter of expectations. I don't have many. So a chance at a few inches is still on the table, fine. It's late February after a pretty ****ty winter. It is what it is. A few inches would be fine by me, if we can pull that off. Because after this, I don't see a lot of hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 RGM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Again, it's a matter of expectations. I don't have many. So a chance at a few inches is still on the table, fine. It's late February after a pretty ****ty winter. It is what it is. A few inches would be fine by me, if we can pull that off. Because after this, I don't see a lot of hope. Well, there's always hope for next winter. And hope that we can get by this summer with many fewer of those God-awful sweltering 90 or 100 degree days compared to last year. But I suppose those are longer range issues! All joking aside, at least we did have the one event in January which was quite spectacular in an otherwise disappointing winter this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 30 hr GFS doesn't look bad, but I guess we'll see how my model prediction forecasting abilities are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lester Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 <br />30 hr GFS doesn't look bad, but I guess we'll see how my model prediction forecasting abilities are<br /><br /><br /><br />Based on the 42 hour GFS I'd say congrats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 At first glance the 42 and 48 hour panels look pretty good. I will wait to find out why I am reading it wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 30 hr GFS doesn't look bad, but I guess we'll see how my model prediction forecasting abilities are gfs looks decent, relatively speaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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