pojrzsho Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 a Northern Neck/So Md special ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 i dont see how anyone can make a forecast with the qpf and the temps changing dramatically every run. The only model who has been consistent is the EURO. 00z gfs and NAM will probably have a new solution tonight again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Precip-wise, though it looks like it fizzles (relatively speaking) as it reaches DC, doesn't it? lol...yeah..kinda crapped out on the next panel. Still looks better vs 18 and 12z today. I don't know guys. DC at both levels that I have data for, surface and 850 go below freezing sometime between 0z and 6z, with close to .25 to fall AFTER 6z in the DC area. That might be upward of near .5 precip after temps are cooperative. Who knows. It is definitely much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I don't know guys. DC at both levels that I have data for, surface and 850 go below freezing sometime between 0z and 6z, with close to .25 to fall AFTER 6z in the DC area. That might be upward of near .5 precip after temps are cooperative. Who knows. It is definitely much better. Here's the sounding for DC. It's still not snow at 03Z as there is a warm layer. The sounding shows snow by 06Z but it probably hasn't been snow for that long as the temps are crashing. The way I read it, around .25 falls as snow this run, that's about .15 better than the previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Wes, Forgive my ignorance but where does one find the QPF on the soundings? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Here's the sounding for DC. It's still not snow at 03Z as there is a warm layer. The sounding shows snow by 06Z but it probably hasn't been snow for that long as the temps are crashing. The way I read it, around .25 falls as snow this run, that's about .15 better than the previous run. I can't read those things, but like you say it is better. .25 could be upwards of 3 to 4 inches couldn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I'll still wait another run before getting very excited. If the gfs and euro give us .25 or better as snow then, I'll play ball. When the window is so small for getting a decent event, it's hard to get too excited. This certainly would be better than the 12 or 18Z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Wes, Forgive my ignorance but where does one find the QPF on the soundings? Thanks You don't but you can figure out the changeover time and then go to the QPF maps and get a pretty good idea of the amounts. Later on you can look at bufkit and it will give you the breakdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 meh, NAM looks like nothing more than a cold front with rain changing to snow they are not known as prolific snow makers around here during the last 10 days of FEB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I can't read those things, but like you say it is better. .25 could be upwards of 3 to 4 inches couldn't it? I doubt it as the ground temps are going to be pretty warm from the extended warm spell and warm temps on Monday. I wouldn't go any more than 10-1 or maybe 12-1 ratios. It probably will end as fluffy snow. Still, the model may oscillate back to a less snowy solution on the next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 meh, NAM looks like nothing more than a cold front with rain changing to snow they are not known as prolific snow makers around here during the last 10 days of FEB I thought you were excited earlier today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 You don't but you can figure out the changeover time and then go to the QPF maps and get a pretty good idea of the amounts. Later on you can look at bufkit and it will give you the breakdown. So according to the two soundings you posted it is fair to say that the changeover occurs sometime between 11 PM Monday night and 1 AM Tuesday morning? With a few hours of frozen precipitation to follow it keeps ones hope up for a somewhat snowy (wet) scenario of maybe 2 to 4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I'm not Wes, but soundings don't indicate qpf. Rather, if qpf is indicated, the temperatures of the various atmospheric levels in the soundings provide you with information about which p-type the precip will be. In this instance, the 03Z Tuesday sounding indicates a warm nose above freezing in between the surface and the 850 mb level. That's not good if you want snow. Absolutely correct. It does suggest a transition to sleet before we go to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Snowlurker, Thanks. Good info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I thought you were excited earlier today. this year has been so bad in my book that flurries have sounded exciting frankly, only the Euro looks exciting to me and we all know how well that has done for us in the 72 hr+ time frame I literally have no faith in anything for the remainder of this winter and am going purely on weenie-autopilot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 As usual here, temps won't be a problem as the cold makes it in here easily. Getting the moisture to cooperate is always the battle for the northern end of the Shenandoah Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Welcome to the Mid Atlantic forum, where we gone from morgue to Six Flags and back in 3.1 seconds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Wes, Forgive my ignorance but where does one find the QPF on the soundings? Thanks http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=MD&stn=KBWI&model=nam&time=current&field=prec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Absolutely correct. It does suggest a transition to sleet before we go to snow. Wes, two questions. One, if the surface is below freezing, wouldn't the depth of the warm layer be critical in determining whether snow could make it through the layer so to speak. Two, if the layer isn't too deep, wouldn't moderate to heavy rates also help to overcome it? And, three I guess, wouldn't any changeover to sleet be fairly brief if temps are crashing rapidly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Welcome to the Mid Atlantic forum, we're we gone from morgue to Six Flags and back in 3.1 seconds. so this is like every other storm this year then....? I'm looking for the fluke the end of this year to give me hope for next year as there have been a few great snow years preceded by late season snow storm the previous year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 As usual here, temps won't be a problem as the cold makes it in here easily. Getting the moisture to cooperate is always the battle for the northern end of the Shenandoah Valley. Amen, amen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Welcome to the Mid Atlantic forum, we're we gone from morgue to Six Flags and back in 3.1 seconds. Look on the bright side....at least the park hasn't closed yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 48 hour RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 well that's two runs in a row with the GFS showing a much warmer solution than it was earlier today. The NAM was encouraging but with the srefs being warm along with the GFS, if the Euro comes in warm than... that's a heck of a lot of rain on the 0z gfs. 1-1.25" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 its gonna be 60 on monday....if any snow falls early tuesday it wont amount to anything, nothing to get too excited about with this thing unless you are totally bored out of your mind and like to watch every model run. We're progged to hit 68 on Monday afternoon. Conversational snow overnight at best. A few elevated surfaces may get a coating. Spring has kicked our asses a billion ways to sunday Every winter, spring comes earlier and earlier. At this rate - we will have spring starting on Christmas Day by the late 2010s - About right when one calculates how much global warming has warmed our planet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samdman95 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 This forum is dead. Any word on the 0z EURO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 This forum is dead. Any word on the 0z EURO? I think that Ji will be here soon to comment. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Way more qpf on euro. For iAd about .32 is cold rain and about .50 as snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Way more qpf on euro. For iAd about .32 is cold rain and about .50 as snow What about BWI?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Wow iAd .82 qpf from wave 2. Phl .10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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