usedtobe Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Who cares...it's 18z nam But the 12Z nam also was pretty bad and only had around .16" qpf as snow....same with the gfs and that's for your area as well as DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 thought the same thing who knows, maybe it will trend south in future runs it's probably more likely the bl will be too warm but we can hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 at 54+ hrs., its got plenty of time the way things have changed so much T-24hrs Mitch, This is how I originally ended my blog yesterday but then waffled. "Right now I’m not very bullish on getting much accumulating snow but that could change. " I ended up not using that sentence in my blog and called jason that I wanted to change the ending as there was still lots of uncertainty. I've never been very bullish on this event even after seeing the bullish 06Z runs. Of course I could be wrong, but the two waves need more space between them for the second one to give us much snow. Even up your way. I suspect the 18Z gfs will trend towards a not so nice solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Mitch, This is how I originally ended my blog yesterday but then waffled. "Right now I’m not very bullish on getting much accumulating snow but that could change. " I ended up not using that sentence in my blog and called jason that I wanted to change the ending as there was still lots of uncertainty. I've never been very bullish on this event even after seeing the bullish 06Z runs. Of course I could be wrong, but the two waves need more space between them for the second one to give us much snow. Even up your way. I suspect the 18Z gfs will trend towards a not so nice solution. oof.. 850 0c punch in the gut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 the gfs is horrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 the gfs is horrible We'd see a few flakes but that's about all. The one hold out is the euro and even it is modest in its amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 i dont see how anyone can make a forecast with the qpf and the temps changing dramatically every run. The only model who has been consistent is the EURO. 00z gfs and NAM will probably have a new solution tonight again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 you are a Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 i dont see how anyone can make a forecast with the qpf and the temps changing dramatically every run. The only model who has been consistent is the EURO. 00z gfs and NAM will probably have a new solution tonight again i havent seen many specific forecasts.. most mention precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 its gonna be 60 on monday....if any snow falls early tuesday it wont amount to anything My comment has nothing to do with Monday night/Tuesday morning's event -- but this statement has been proven wrong so many times. Yeah, warm temps before storms don't help, and they are certainly a factor wrt to if the snow will accumulate, but heavy enough rates often over come those issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
derecho Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 impressive! for dc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Nice HPC map. LWX is still kinda bullish in their AFD at least potential wise... It'll be a nailbighter it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I dunno if i'm looking at the right map, but SREFS look wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I dunno if i'm looking at the right map, but SREFS look wetter Don't know if I am either, but they also look warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Don't know if I am either, but they also look warmer. Kind of seems like the precip is almost done by hr 60 when temps finally go below freezing at DCA and Bmore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Kind of seems like the precip is almost done by hr 60 when temps finally go below freezing at DCA and Bmore? Looks like a whole lot of nothing, but who knows if it will be anywhere near correct. With HPC and the NWS sorta playing it up, and the word that's been thrown around about the Euro, I'm not giving up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 NAM is colder through hr 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Well, well, well, I guess we ain't dead yet. Model wise that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 This run of the NAM might be nice for the DCA area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Nam looks much better at 54 than 18z did at 60. colder and nice slug of precip to the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 NAM is just plain sexy!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Nam looks much better at 54 than 18z did at 60. colder and nice slug of precip to the west Best NAM run of the day I'd say. All aspects looked better, 500,700, 850. If this were to be close to what happens, it might be pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Nam looks much better at 54 than 18z did at 60. colder and nice slug of precip to the west What just happened? Though the run looks decent, there was the big "slug" of precipitation to the west that just sort of diminished as it moved east over our area. No blues for us, eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Precip-wise, though it looks like it fizzles (relatively speaking) as it reaches DC, doesn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 lol...yeah..kinda crapped out on the next panel. Still looks better vs 18 and 12z today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Looks a LOT better. I say we wrap it and take it home! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 NAM is trying to draw me in-- its like 20 miles north with 2-3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 <br />Precip-wise, though it looks like it fizzles (relatively speaking) as it reaches DC, doesn't it?<br /><br /><br /><br />Confluence to the north putting the squeeze play on. This looks to be a nail-biter up till game time. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 i guess Wes will be back in now.....till 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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