mitchnick Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Day 7 Euro 850 temps yikes! http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=namer&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=temp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=7day&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Day 7 Euro 850 temps yikes! http://vortex.plymou...t=h24&cu=latest I added wind streamlines http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=namer&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=temp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=7day&cu=latest&overlay=yes&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=strm&in=5&pl=ln&ft=7day&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 JI has proven he is Met quality you ought to be ashamed of yourself give him the red tag and stfu lol On a more serious note, it is interesting that this forum isn't hotter than it is. The latest Euro just gave us a really nice shot of snow, it would be about 3-5 or so taken verbatim and depending where you are. The GFS is not that far off decent snow and the NAM is somewhere in that vicinity. Where the heck is everybody? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 it's probably just because it's felt like march the last week. late season snow doesnt get the same love midseason snow does it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Match... Check out the 168 jma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 it's probably just because it's felt like march the last week. late season snow doesnt get the same love midseason snow does it seems. We are in our snowiest month. Jma crushes us next week also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 We are in our snowiest month. Jma crushes us next week also sure, but i think that's heavily weighted toward the first half of the mo. normal people like when it starts warming up etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Yeah good point. Funny how people fall for the warm up every time. Climo repeatedly varies temps more drastically as the winter comes to an end but people still think that every time we get a good warm up it will stay like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redskinsnut Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 We are in our snowiest month. Jma crushes us next week also Exactly. The heck with all of this nice weather crap. It is winter! I want snow! What is the matter with some of you?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Mitch, everytime I think it is something to get excited about, someone works to squash optimism. The 12z runs today sure seem to keep the real chance of an accumulating snow a possiblity, which is great. I am guessing people are feeling like they've been burned enough this winter to bother hoping that this verifies, but, hey, it looks like a chance at 3-6, and I am all for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 sure, but i think that's heavily weighted toward the first half of the mo. normal people like when it starts warming up etc. And who here is covered by that? BTW, I don't think the new SREFS look too good. Now watch the NAM come in fantastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Match... Check out the 168 jma if it was last winter, I'd say lock it in this year....what are the odds? for those that don't have 168hr JMA, it shows a decent snow storm for us actually, the 192 hour has the look of a monster out west on its way east too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark304 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 sure, but i think that's heavily weighted toward the first half of the mo. normal people like when it starts warming up etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark304 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Exactly. The heck with all of this nice weather crap. It is winter! I want snow! What is the matter with some of you?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 sure, but i think that's heavily weighted toward the first half of the mo. normal people like when it starts warming up etc. Normal people also hate 10"+ storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 it's probably just because it's felt like march the last week. late season snow doesnt get the same love midseason snow does it seems. More like May. This torch was absurd.....it felt pleasant but it can wait a few months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Anyone care to compare the reliability of the ops versus the ensembles (SREF) in this particular situation? Who should we trust more? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 More like May. This torch was absurd.....it felt pleasant but it can wait a few months. it was fairly extreme but we get warmth pretty much every cold month around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 18z NAM looks kind of iffy so far. Looks weaker with the second wave but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 18z NAM looks kind of iffy so far. Looks weaker with the second wave but we'll see. it looses the system, almost completely throw it out as it looks nothing like anything else NAM does that post 48 hrs sometimes EDIT: Unless, of course, all the other modeling starts to go that way, but we'll have to wait for 0Z to make that decision Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 NAM is blah. It's starting to stakc against us. Euro versus the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 it looses the system, almost completely throw it out as it looks nothing like anything else NAM does that post 48 hrs sometimes Interesting. How can you tell when it's losing the system? It's still there but it's just a lot weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 The model has trended weaker each of the last two runs. Even for BWI, at 12Z the nam only gave them .23 as snow. The gfs only .11. DCA and IAD had about .15 or so from both models and the 18Z nam looks even more tepid and would argue for less than an inch for DC. It's going to be hard to resurrect the 06Z model run results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 The model has trended weaker each of the last two runs. Even for BWI, at 12Z the nam only gave them .23 as snow. The gfs only .11. DCA and IAD had about .15 or so from both models and the 18Z nam looks even more tepid and would argue for less than an inch for DC. It's going to be hard to resurrect the 06Z model run results. The NAM hints that someone in a narrow ribbon on the north side of DC to southern Montgomery county could have a few hours of snow accummulating on grassy surfaces and on bar-b-que grill tops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Who cares...it's 18z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Who cares...it's 18z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 its gonna be 60 on monday....if any snow falls early tuesday it wont amount to anything, nothing to get too excited about with this thing unless you are totally bored out of your mind and like to watch every model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 The model has trended weaker each of the last two runs. Even for BWI, at 12Z the nam only gave them .23 as snow. The gfs only .11. DCA and IAD had about .15 or so from both models and the 18Z nam looks even more tepid and would argue for less than an inch for DC. It's going to be hard to resurrect the 06Z model run results. at 54+ hrs., its got plenty of time the way things have changed so much T-24hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 maybe we'll get some flakes tomorrow eve http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_pcp_030m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 maybe we'll get some flakes tomorrow eve http://www.nco.ncep....fs_pcp_030m.gif thought the same thing who knows, maybe it will trend south in future runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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