MD Snow Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I usually sleep all night without waking up once.....unless there is snow in the forecast. Then I typically wake up every hour to look out the window. Another basic weenie affliction. LOL there have been two times in the last year that I've stayed up all night for 1" dustings...I'll def be up all night Monday night. There are not many storms with this kind of temp drop and changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Wes seems to be on the pessimism train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Wes seems to be on the pessimism train. Look where he lives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Wes seems to be on the pessimism train. It's hard to be too optimistic when the 09Z sref members have about half showing no snow at all for DC and only three members showing accumulations and only 2 showing decent amounts. None looked as good as the 06Z GFS. I also don't like what I've seen so far of the GFS. Luckily, I only have to give a CWG quote today. I'll still probably keep the quote pretty generic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Wes seems to be on the pessimism train. I don't know what he's thinking but I can see where the pessimism may lay. Temp crashes are pretty huge and I think the bull's eye will shift slightly north before this is over with. I think Bmore might actually be in line for something nice here, but how nice is still to be seen. The bull's eye, as I've read on these boards, always tends to be a tad north of the modeling, and that certainly happened for Jan. 26th. D.C. might end up on the slushy side when you take a step back and just consider the temp crashes and how D.C. usually struggles with accums and those types of things. But I still think anyone from NOVA northward is looking at a legit threat for 2+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 It's hard to be too optimistic when the 09Z sref members have about half showing no snow at all for DC and only three members showing accumulations and only 2 showing decent amounts. None looked as good as the 06Z GFS. I also don't like what I've seen so far of the GFS. Luckily, I only have to give a CWG quote today. I'll still probably keep the quote pretty generic. Are you thinking this is a Mason Dixon special or just mainly rain for the area that gets hit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 One problem I see on the 12z GFS is the high pressure over the southern atlantic is stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 So far everything is about 50-75 miles NE on the 12z GFS. But that's just the first wave coming through don't know if that will affect the second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Euro had a mostly snow event. Are we discounting 00z euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 One problem I see on the 12z GFS is the high pressure over the southern atlantic is stronger They're both 1020 through 48... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 They're both 1020 through 48... Yes but look at the 1020 ring... it is much larger on the 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Euro had a mostly snow event. Are we discounting 00z euro? Not yet, the models haven't yet settled on a solution but the nam was a step backward and the sref are not that great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 GFS looks a lot like the NAM through hr 54 in terms of tempertures...both came north a bit with the 850'... yeah 12z gfs is nothing to get excited about.... .1-.25 dc north...the heavy stuff is south but that's mostly rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Isn't this run a little more supressed, or I am reading it wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Not yet, the models haven't yet settled on a solution but the nam was a step backward and the sref are not that great. What were the temps like in Bmore for the latest NAM? The 850's looked below D.C. so I just assumed Bmore was mostly snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Yeah that's a whiff to the south. Congrats NOVA on that run...if temps were below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Vanni Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 IMO, this run is better than the 00z GFS. I find comparing the 00z and 12z runs give you more accurate measures on real trends and you'll notice how the jumps aren't usually as big as if you compare 06z with 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Looks better, though marginal for us in NOVA. Sharp cutoff in MD sad to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Basically nobody knows. We are under the mercy of the models. Models rule unfortunately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Looks better, though marginal for us in NOVA. Sharp cutoff in MD sad to say. Judging by my untrained eye NOVA would be mostly rain at the height of the storm changing to some snow at the backend...can someone post the ensembles when they come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 GFS still looks kinda crappy to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 GFS still looks kinda crappy to me. Indeed. Between that and Wes' take, any quiet hope I had is being tested this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Judging by my untrained eye NOVA would be mostly rain at the height of the storm changing to some snow at the backend...can someone post the ensembles when they come out? This is the time to use the sref ensembles and not the gefs. The 09Z sref were ugly. The 12Z gfs is ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Indeed. Between that and Wes' take, any quiet hope I had is being tested this morning. I think we'll probably see some snow at the end but feel the bulk of the precip is more likely to be rain than snow. To get the latter, the timing of the second wave has to be slower. the GFS speeded it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Looks better, though marginal for us in NOVA. Sharp cutoff in MD sad to say. It was a huge step back from 06Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 It was a huge step back from 06Z. Yeah. NAM kind of did the same thing. I expect nothing, and will be happy with a slushy covering Tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 The 700 is not that bad on the GFS. Some snow for NOVA for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 heard that the GGEM came a good deal south too...can anyone confirm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 ggem That doesn't look awful. Let's get it south today and tonight on the models to get it colder, then let's get it wetter tomorrow night and Monday and we're all set. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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