mitchnick Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 On 2/21/2011 at 3:57 AM, weathercoins said: I'd love to get excited about this, but with temperatures perhaps approaching 60 around this area tomorrow, I'm still quite skeptical. It's pretty clear snow will fall, and I'll probably need to dust off my Chevy.... but am having trouble believing roads will get snow to stick unless we see some heavy stuff... new models do not have us getting that warm any more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 On 2/21/2011 at 3:57 AM, weathercoins said: I'd love to get excited about this, but with temperatures perhaps approaching 60 around this area tomorrow, I'm still quite skeptical. It's pretty clear snow will fall, and I'll probably need to dust off my Chevy.... but am having trouble believing roads will get snow to stick unless we see some heavy stuff... When it gets below 30, with a decent snow rate, it hardly matters anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 On 2/21/2011 at 3:59 AM, mitchnick said: new models do not have us getting that warm any more And besides, once temperatures get into the upper 20's, snow sticks. Especially at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 On 2/21/2011 at 3:59 AM, mitchnick said: new models do not have us getting that warm any more im sticking with the euro lol. It was the first model to say that we werent getting close to 60-65 tomorrow and it seems like the models are trending towards it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 On 2/21/2011 at 3:58 AM, mitchnick said: hmm, NAM surprises me for BWI http://68.226.77.253...FC/NAM_Kbwi.txt That would be nice, for certain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 On 2/21/2011 at 3:53 AM, Ji said: we have had some weird ways of getting snow this year. a bowling ball Miller B and an upper level bomb The way things have gone this winter, I'll take those weird ways! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 On 2/21/2011 at 4:02 AM, Ji said: im sticking with the euro lol. It was the first model to say that we werent getting close to 60-65 tomorrow and it seems like the models are trending towards it euro has led the pack all along on this one it seems but it probably has too much qpf (or did last run). it did show 65+ a few runs back for tomorrow too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 On 2/21/2011 at 4:04 AM, Ian said: euro has led the pack all along on this one it seems but it probably has too much qpf (or did last run). it did show 65+ a few runs back for tomorrow too. yes but i think it was the first to back away from 65 while other models held on longer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I am pretty sure we are going to have a MECS/HECS in the first week of march Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 On 2/21/2011 at 4:04 AM, Ian said: euro has led the pack all along on this one it seems but it probably has too much qpf (or did last run). it did show 65+ a few runs back for tomorrow too. Should be an interesting temp drop from 18z to 0z tomorrow, if modeled correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 On 2/21/2011 at 4:06 AM, Ji said: I am pretty sure we are going to have a MECS/HECS in the first week of march that might be my storm since the warmup was delayed a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 On 2/21/2011 at 4:06 AM, Ji said: I am pretty sure we are going to have a MECS/HECS in the first week of march the 13th of March. Corrected...channeling JB tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 NAM and GFS agree on a 5-8" snowfall for MRB-HGR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 On 2/21/2011 at 4:06 AM, Ji said: I am pretty sure we are going to have a MECS/HECS in the first week of march Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 On 2/21/2011 at 4:06 AM, Ji said: I am pretty sure we are going to have a MECS/HECS in the first week of march Yeah, I mentioned over in the look ahead thread that the GFS sure looks stormy and gradually colder each run. I hope it keeps going. Cold and snowy until March 15 would suit me fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 On 2/21/2011 at 4:09 AM, WVclimo said: NAM and GFS agree on a 5-8" snowfall for MRB-HGR. Yeah you look great out there Craig with minimal sleet/.rain. Whats your seasonal total at right now? I know I asked a while back but forgot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 On 2/21/2011 at 4:09 AM, WVclimo said: NAM and GFS agree on a 5-8" snowfall for MRB-HGR. Spread a little of that down my way. I'm not that far from MRB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 On 2/21/2011 at 4:10 AM, AppalachianWX said: Yeah you look great out there Craig with minimal sleet/.rain. Whats your seasonal total at right now? I know I asked a while back but forgot 15.8" Dave. Average is around 25". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 On 2/21/2011 at 4:11 AM, winterwxluvr said: Spread a little of that down my way. I'm not that far from MRB. If models are correct, you'll do fine. I should've said OKV, but I've been weenieing out over the maps for my back yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 On 2/21/2011 at 4:13 AM, WVclimo said: 15.8" Dave. Average is around 25". A nice solid 5-7" would slap you pretty close to your norm then. Not to shabby with all the nickel and diming this season. I still think we fall short here in the burg of our normal 24-25" but again is a Nina and a wacky one at that too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suffolkweather Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 On 2/21/2011 at 4:01 AM, nw baltimore wx said: And besides, once temperatures get into the upper 20's, snow sticks. Especially at night. I've observed that There's more factors that go into snow sticking to the ground, especially asphalt/concrete, than just temp. 2 weeks ago we got 3-5" of snow in about a 6-8 hour window overnight/early morning, temp was 28-29 for most of the event (high the day before event was 40)...we only had wet streets. On the other hand, I've seen it stick to roads during the day with a temp of 33. Good luck though! Turning out to be interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 On 2/21/2011 at 4:15 AM, WVclimo said: If models are correct, you'll do fine. I should've said OKV, but I've been weenieing out over the maps for my back yard. Thanks. I hope everybody cashes. I really like the trends. Hopefully the Euro stays the course. I'm hoping to wake up to warnings, but almost afraid of what I'll see in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 On 2/21/2011 at 4:17 AM, AppalachianWX said: A nice solid 5-7" would slap you pretty close to your norm then. Not to shabby with all the nickel and diming this season. I still think we fall short here in the burg of our normal 24-25" but again is a Nina and a wacky one at that too No measurable snow here since 1/28. We're due. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 On 2/21/2011 at 4:20 AM, winterwxluvr said: Thanks. I hope everybody cashes. I really like the trends. Hopefully the Euro stays the course. I'm hoping to wake up to warnings, but almost afraid of what I'll see in the morning. Same here, hope we're all pretty happy in the end! I wouldn't expect there'd be warnings issued in the morning yet, probably watches I'd think at that point...that is, assuming the situation would warrant such a thing (a big assumption right now, but just going with it)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 00z UKIE looks much colder at the 850 level Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 On 2/21/2011 at 4:22 AM, WVclimo said: No measurable snow here since 1/28. We're due. AMEN to that! Nothing really since the 1-26 event here in the DC area, other than maybe a dusting or so this month so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 On 2/21/2011 at 4:25 AM, yoda said: 00z UKIE looks much colder at the 850 level 30 hrs -- 850s are -4/-5 at DCA/IAD.... BWI/FDK/HGR are at -6. Surface 32 degree along a line from I would guess Luray to EZF? North of there is below freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 On 2/21/2011 at 4:25 AM, yoda said: 00z UKIE looks much colder at the 850 level Details? At what time and forecast hour, etc.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 On 2/21/2011 at 4:27 AM, yoda said: 30 hrs -- 850s are -4/-5 at DCA/IAD.... BWI/FDK/HGR are at -6 On 2/21/2011 at 4:28 AM, Always in Zugzwang said: Details? At what time and forecast hour, etc.? Ooops, must have asked my question right as you supplied the information, sorry about that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 On 2/21/2011 at 4:27 AM, yoda said: 30 hrs -- 850s are -4/-5 at DCA/IAD.... BWI/FDK/HGR are at -6. Surface 32 degree along a line from I would guess Luray to EZF? North of there is below freezing what about qpf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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