mitchnick Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 On 2/21/2011 at 2:25 AM, yoda said: Could you link me to that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 On 2/21/2011 at 2:21 AM, Ian said: the panel after was juicier in this area tho which is nice to see. Yeah, gives us around .25. Jason thought .30 which I guess is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 On 2/21/2011 at 2:23 AM, WxUSAF said: Exactly...NAM would give DC 0.25" of snow QPF after 6z. 700 was better this run than prior locally.. Moved the axis of best lift more over the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 On 2/21/2011 at 2:26 AM, mitchnick said: if someone gets 3-6 inches in central/northern md...this would almost be a worst bust than jan 26 event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 On 2/21/2011 at 2:29 AM, usedtobe said: Yeah, gives us around .25. Jason thought .30 which I guess is possible. The DCA sounding at 03Z is a sleet one. Wes, if the omegas were strong enough... could we overcome the sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 On 2/21/2011 at 2:29 AM, usedtobe said: Yeah, gives us around .25. Jason thought .30 which I guess is possible. The DCA sounding at 03Z is a sleet one. I'll hope the 850s crash quicker but I'm not really banking on much of the pre 6z stuff being snow here. Would heavy precip be able to cool 850 faster than modeled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 funny how 5 days ago if i was to say we have the possibility of receiving our second biggest snow this season in 5 days i would have been laughed off this board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 On 2/21/2011 at 2:35 AM, MD Snow said: funny how 5 days ago if i was to say we have the possibility of receiving our second biggest snow this season in 5 days i would have been laughed off this board. 1.5" is a tough barrier to break Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 just looked at the hour 27 NAM skewt for IAD and it is clearly ALL SNOW I can't get DCA or BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 On 2/21/2011 at 2:32 AM, Ian said: I'll hope the 850s crash quicker but I'm not really banking on much of the pre 6z stuff being snow here. Would heavy precip be able to cool 850 faster than modeled? Maybe a little as strong vertical motion causes cooling as does melting snowflakes though the latter is much less efficient than evaporation. It would be better if the band and frontal zone just slid south a little more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 On 2/21/2011 at 2:41 AM, mitchnick said: just looked at the hour 27 NAM skewt for IAD and it is clearly ALL SNOW I can't get DCA or BWI I posted the 27 hr nam for dca above. it's clearly sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 On 2/21/2011 at 2:41 AM, mitchnick said: just looked at the hour 27 NAM skewt for IAD and it is clearly ALL SNOW I can't get DCA or BWI OK, I think something's up with the site I am using that may not be right because the 30 hour does NOT look like snow, so never mind until that can be confirmed at the ARL site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capitalweather Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 On 2/21/2011 at 2:29 AM, usedtobe said: Yeah, gives us around .25. Jason thought .30 which I guess is possible. I was guessing about 0.05-0.1 of the precip between 3z and 6z was snow on the NAM at DCA, but that might be a little aggressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I usually distrust the NAM, but am hugging this solution hard tonight: http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Khgr.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 On 2/21/2011 at 2:44 AM, mitchnick said: OK, I think something's up with the site I am using that may not be right because the 30 hour does NOT look like snow, so never mind until that can be confirmed at the ARL site Here's the nam IAD sounding at 27 hrs. The warm layer temp is around 2.7C. Sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 On 2/21/2011 at 2:46 AM, usedtobe said: Here's the nam IAD sounding at 27 hrs. The warm layer temp is around 2.7C. Sleet. thanks Wes the site I was using must be another run or just messed up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 On 2/21/2011 at 2:45 AM, capitalweather said: I was guessing about 0.05-0.1 of the precip between 3z and 6z was snow on the NAM at DCA, but that might be a little aggressive. I think it probably is but it's hard to say as a warm layer of anything less than plus 1C probably would get snow and it's 0.2C at 06Z . At any rate, it would argue that our 1 inch for dc is conservative and that rush hour might be a mess is the temps fall to 24 by 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 So I just got back home.. I hear the NAM is good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 at 27 hrs, BWI looks to be snow, but its real close http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbsnd.cgi?id=KBWI&mo=nam&pl=skewt&ft=h27&cu=latest&pt=parcel&size=800x600 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 27hr sounding at BWI is probably snow...borderline sleet with a nose above freezing between 775-825mb. Can't tell what the temp is exactly in that layer...looks mostly between 0-1C. 30 is definitely snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 On 2/21/2011 at 2:50 AM, stormtracker said: So I just got back home.. I hear the NAM is good Certainly better than the last two runs. The mitchnicks and Phins of the world should be liking it more than us. I'd still be happy if DC and my house got 2 inches though I wish it wasn't coming in the wee hours of the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 On 2/21/2011 at 2:51 AM, WxUSAF said: 27hr sounding at BWI is probably snow...borderline sleet with a nose above freezing between 775-825mb. Can't tell what the temp is exactly in that layer...looks mostly between 0-1C. 30 is definitely snow. thin layer of +1C http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbsnd.cgi?id=KBWI&mo=nam&pl=none&ft=h27&cu=latest&pt=parcel&size=800x600 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 On 2/21/2011 at 2:53 AM, usedtobe said: Certainly better than the last two runs. The mitchnicks and Phins of the world should be liking it more than us. I'd still be happy if DC and my house got 2 inches though I wish it wasn't coming in the wee hours of the morning. yeah, it will be a darn shame for you to have to stay up all night to keep the weenies happy, but a man's got to do what a man's got to do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 On 2/21/2011 at 2:54 AM, mitchnick said: thin layer of +1C http://vortex.plymou...el&size=800x600 Less than 1C is often snow but it also depends on flake size some, 1C is usually sleet but it certainly would be mixing shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 On 2/21/2011 at 2:56 AM, usedtobe said: Less than 1C is often snow but it also depends on flake size some, 1C is usually sleet but it certainly would be mixing shortly. at 27 hrs BWI is +1C my house is +.9C Baltimore Science Center is +.6 I hate to seem like I'm fixating, but the 3 hr maps show around .2" qpf to fall between 27-30 hrs, which will obviously make a big difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 RGEM looks nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 On 2/21/2011 at 3:16 AM, stormtracker said: RGEM RGEM is pretty wet. I wonder what the Euro is seeing to drop over an inch of qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 This is looking much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 RGEM turning me on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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