La Nina SOI number continue to Drop

[CarolinaCrusher2000]

DTN article said today that La Nina is fading quickly. Here is the link. http://www.dtnprogre...12e2a64caf60641

[BullCityWx]

If we can get a weak el niño, that's almost always a great sign for us.

[NC_hailstorm]

Been watching the readings out there and it's been running around 19-21 on the 90 day average since about late summer/fall.Still pretty high now.

Check out today's reading,not much weakening with that huge number.

16 FEB 2011 1014.53 999.20 50.87

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

We have to watch this. A similar progression happened in 1997 and 2001.

1997 was a Super El Nino, 2001 was Neutral. These next few weeks will tell the story of the future.

[nzucker]

We have to watch this. A similar progression happened in 1997 and 2001.

1997 was a Super El Nino, 2001 was Neutral. These next few weeks will tell the story of the future.

The thirty-day SOI average is around 19.3, not far off from the 90-day average which is like 21.5. The SOI varies on a daily base so I don't see any reason to get too excited yet. Warmer waters have surged into Region 1.2 but the rest of the ENSO regions, as well as the area to the south and the North Pacific, remain below average. Most of the models seem to be showing weak Niña next year which is fine with me.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

The thirty-day SOI average is around 19.3, not far off from the 90-day average which is like 21.5. The SOI varies on a daily base so I don't see any reason to get too excited yet. Warmer waters have surged into Region 1.2 but the rest of the ENSO regions, as well as the area to the south and the North Pacific, remain below average. Most of the models seem to be showing weak Niña next year which is fine with me.

I should clarify that although this is being posted in an SOI thread, I'm more so referring to the rapid warming that has occurred in eastern ENSO regions lately, and the quick demise of powerful trade winds which started about a month ago (This Winter 500mb pattern was not Nina-like at all - usually a telling sign of what's to come). The prospects for a multi-year La Nina are looking slimmer every day.

[nzucker]

I should clarify that although this is being posted in an SOI thread, I'm more so referring to the rapid warming that has occurred in eastern ENSO regions lately, and the quick demise of powerful trade winds which started about a month ago (This Winter 500mb pattern was not Nina-like at all - usually a telling sign of what's to come). The prospects for a multi-year La Nina are looking slimmer every day.

The trades always diminish in the springtime though, so I think we were all expecting that. Although the eastern regions have warmed some, the warmth broke up some in the last frame of the NOAA SST maps, and the western regions are still holding onto moderate Niña anomalies. That warm tongue looked to be spreading into the heart of ENSO but the last four days seem to have reduced it with the influence of the below average waters near Central America.

2/17:

NOW:

Also, I'd argue that the pattern this February has been much more La Niña like than the rest of the winter. AO/NAO have turned positive, and the SE ridge has made its mark:

ENSO model consensus looks to be around neutral, perhaps towards a weak Niña/cold-neutral season next winter:

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

The trades always diminish in the springtime though, so I think we were all expecting that. Although the eastern regions have warmed some, the warmth broke up some in the last frame of the NOAA SST maps, and the western regions are still holding onto moderate Niña anomalies. That warm tongue looked to be spreading into the heart of ENSO but the last four days seem to have reduced it with the influence of the below average waters near Central America.

The trades have decreased at a faster rate than what is typical for this time of the year.. for a while in January we actually had Nino-like conditions present.

History says that if the late Winter warm tongue can stay strong passing through 160W, an El Nino becomes more likely. At the very least, the odds of continuous La Nina are trimmed significantly. This is trying to happen now.

2/17:[

NOW

Don't worry about micro-analyzing short term trends. These things always move in cycles. The point is that it's still February and we already have warm waters stretching into Nino 3. This is after one of the Strongest Nina's on record just peaked a few months ago. It's an impressive transition.

Also, I'd argue that the pattern this February has been much more La Niña like than the rest of the winter. AO/NAO have turned positive, and the SE ridge has made its mark:

I'd argue that the map you posted doesn't look Nina-like at all, and that the Pacific pattern this Winter which featured a lot of Arctic blocking and some +PNA periods is not Nina-climo. Would post maps, but you should know this as well as I.

ENSO model consensus looks to be around neutral, perhaps towards a weak Niña/cold-neutral season next winter:

They do this every year. Model consensus means very little right now.

[nzucker]

The trades have decreased at a faster rate than what is typical for this time of the year.. for a while in January we actually had Nino-like conditions present.

History says that if the late Winter warm tongue can stay strong passing through 160W, an El Nino becomes more likely. At the very least, the odds of continuous La Nina are trimmed significantly. This is trying to happen now.

I'd argue that the map you posted doesn't look Nina-like at all, and that the Pacific pattern this Winter which featured a lot of Arctic blocking, and some +PNA periods is not Nina-climo. Not even close really.

Yes, the warming of the subsurface towards 160W has been impressive...I am sort of toying with the idea with a weak Niño, which would be great for the East in the NAO/AO regime we've seen lately. Maybe we'd have a progression like 75-76/76-77 with very cold weather as we've already seen the tendency towards blocking over Alaska and the Bering Strait, which might shift east in a Niño.

I think February anomalies nationwide will look the most Niña-like of all the months for sure. The big -PNA pattern is going to cement the cold anomalies in the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains; the SE and Mid-Atlantic will warm a bit more as storms pass to the northwest in the next week over the SE ridge pattern. With the NAO reverting to positive, the pattern has definitely resembled some Niñas of the past a bit, like February 1988. Yes, we did have the MJO move into Phase 8 in January, but that was temporary and over now.

I wouldn't be surprised to see the La Niña make another run this summer...a lot of the years that went from strong Niño-->strong Niña stayed in the -ENSO category for a while...definitely the mid 70s examples and years after 1998 are good examples. Of course the recent CME/solar burst may have increased the chances that we develop an El Niño, but I'm still not on that train yet.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Yes, the warming of the subsurface towards 160W has been impressive...I am sort of toying with the idea with a weak Niño, which would be great for the East in the NAO/AO regime we've seen lately. Maybe we'd have a progression like 75-76/76-77 with very cold weather as we've already seen the tendency towards blocking over Alaska and the Bering Strait, which might shift east in a Niño.

I wouldn't be surprised to see the La Niña make another run this summer...a lot of the years that went from strong Niño-->strong Niña stayed in the -ENSO category for a while...definitely the mid 70s examples and years after 1998 are good examples. Of course the recent CME/solar burst may have increased the chances that we develop an El Niño, but I'm still not on that train yet.

I'm not really sure on exactly what to expect yet. The Sun trending toward a more active phase favors El Nino conditions at this part of the cycle, but the Earth is in a strong global -AAM/-PDO regime. We will have to talk about this in a few weeks.

I think February anomalies nationwide will look the most Niña-like of all the months for sure. The big -PNA pattern is going to cement the cold anomalies in the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains; the SE and Mid-Atlantic will warm a bit more as storms pass to the northwest in the next week over the SE ridge pattern. With the NAO reverting to positive, the pattern has definitely resembled some Niñas of the past a bit, like February 1988. Yes, we did have the MJO move into Phase 8 in January, but that was temporary and over now.

Until a week ago, we really hadn't seen the SE ridge all Winter. This was a very atypical La Nina season. Coldest anomalies in the SE, even if you were to include February. December and January were pretty brutal in typically Nina-warm areas.

[nzucker]

I'm not really sure on what to expect yet. The Sun trending toward a more active phase favors El Nino conditions at this part of the cycle, but the Earth is in a strong global -AAM/-PDO regime. We will have to talk about this in a few weeks.

Until a week ago, we really hadn't seen the SE ridge all Winter. This was a very atypical La Nina season. Coldest anomalies in the SE, even if you were to include February. December and January were pretty brutal in typically Nina-warm areas.

Yeah we'll chat again as we move towards spring and see what happens with that subsurface warm pool as well as the waters in Region 2. There's definitely a strong -PDO backdrop but that doesn't mean we couldn't have a weak Niño; those were plentiful in the -PDO 1960s with weak Niños in 63-64, 68-69, and 69-70.

I was just arguing that if anything, the pattern over the hemisphere has shifted more towards La Niña with a +NAO/+AO/-PNA. Although you can use the pattern this winter to argue we are not in a typical Niña regime, you cannot use it to argue we are trending towards El Niño. All of the signs of a strong Niña have manifested themselves this month with the SE ridge, cold anomalies starting to develop in the N Plains/N Rockies, etc.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Yeah we'll chat again as we move towards spring and see what happens with that subsurface warm pool as well as the waters in Region 2. There's definitely a strong -PDO backdrop but that doesn't mean we couldn't have a weak Niño; those were plentiful in the -PDO 1960s with weak Niños in 63-64, 68-69, and 69-70.

Exactly. Then there is the 72-73 anomaly.

I was just arguing that if anything, the pattern over the hemisphere has shifted more towards La Niña with a +NAO/+AO/-PNA. Although you can use the pattern this winter to argue we are not in a typical Niña regime, you cannot use it to argue we are trending towards El Niño. All of the signs of a strong Niña have manifested themselves this month with the SE ridge, cold anomalies starting to develop in the N Plains/N Rockies, etc.

How relevant are US Temps to this anyway? La Nina isn't the only pattern shaper. Maybe we are getting off topic in arguing this.

ENSO conditions right now are in favor of east-based Nino warming, and the waters are reacting. It's probably a max warm period in a longer term cycle, but still, this shows us how easily the Nina can be torn apart. Never a good sign for it. Going forward, El Nino or Neutral appear much more likely.

[nzucker]

How relevant are US Temps to this anyway? La Nina isn't the only pattern shaper. Maybe we are getting off topic in arguing this.

ENSO conditions right now are in favor of east-based Nino warming, and the waters are reacting. It's probably a max warm period in a longer term cycle, but still, this shows us how easily the Nina can be torn apart. Never a good sign for it. Going forward, El Nino or Neutral appear much more likely.

This happened in March 2008, however; the eastern ENSO regions warmed a lot while the western areas stayed cold. Despite the warming of Region 1.2 and parts of Region 3, another La Niña followed, just much weaker than the first one.

How many other years has this happened?

I have to mention, 72-73 was preceded by two La Niñas, a moderate episode in 70-71 followed by a weak episode in 71-72.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

This happened in March 2008, however; the eastern ENSO regions warmed a lot while the western areas stayed cold. Despite the warming of Region 1.2 and parts of Region 3, another La Niña followed, just much weaker than the first one.

How many other years has this happened?

I'm not sure. Will have to check tomorrow.

I have to mention, 72-73 was preceded by two La Niñas, a moderate episode in 70-71 followed by a weak episode in 71-72.

We are coming off of a healthy La Nina. There is going to be some tendency for an atmospheric snap back away from colder conditions. Maybe that's what we're seeing now.

Here's an interesting fact.. Since 1950, 7 La Nina's had a SON Nino 3.4 average the same as or equal to any point after NDJ. 4/7 Were El Nino the next year (with 3 of the events being Strong!), and 3/7 were La Nina. None were ENSO Neutral. Early peaking La Nina's seem to favor a strong snap back to El Nino if a major force isn't in place to keep conditions La Nina.

Maybe we aren't going into a calmer ENSO period. Don't rule out the Strong El Nino possibility. It's easy to forget we just did one in this strong -PDO region two years ago.

[Chris L]

Nate and Chuck, superb discussion from both of you. This is going to be slighty off topic, but I am wondering if it is possible to get a very strong El Nino (1982-1983 and 1997-1998) to combine with the historic -AO and -NAO of 2009-2010 winter and as well as December 2010 Block. Is that possible or no because the strong Nino will overdetermine the pattern driver?

That would be quite a historic snowy pattern....

[nzucker]

I'm not sure. Will have to check tomorrow.

We are coming off of a Moderate Nina. There is going to be some tendency for an atmospheric snap back away from colder conditions. Maybe that's what we're seeing now.

Here's an interesting fact.. Since 1950, 7 La Nina's had a SON Nino 3.4 average the same as or equal to any point after NDJ. 4/7 Were El Nino the next year (with 3 of the events being Strong!), and 3/7 were La Nina. None were ENSO Neutral. Maybe we aren't going into a calmer ENSO period. Don't rule out the Strong El Nino possibility. It's easy to forget we just did one in this strong -PDO region two years ago.

We've never had a strong Niño after a strong Niña in the post-1950 regime, so I wouldn't say it's likely. That's a big transition to make...we'll have to see if any Kelvin Waves start surfacing in the springtime, but I'm not going to bet on that option yet. Given that the IRI analysis is calling for a weak Niña as well as many of the analogs, that's what I'm aiming for. Also, the cold anomalies at the surface in the western ENSO regions seem to be holding pretty well despite the warming underneath, and SOI recently has been as high as +50 which means the globe is overall experiencing a Niña like wind pattern.

The same thing happened with the eastern regions warming in 1999, so unless you can prove otherwise I'd assume it's just part of a cycle and doesn't mean ENSO is going one way or another:

A strong Niña followed in 99-00.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Nate and Chuck, superb discussion from both of you. This is going to be slighty off topic, but I am wondering if it is possible to get a very strong El Nino (1982-1983 and 1997-1998) to combine with the historic -AO and -NAO of 2009-2010 winter and as well as December 2010 Block. Is that possible or no because the strong Nino will overdetermine the pattern driver?

It would ultimately come down to where the El Nino is dominate. A Strong East-based setup like 82-83 or 97-98 would produce a pattern that doesn't match well downstream with -NAO wavelengths. A +NAO tendency would probably occur as a result, even in this negative regime. A west-based setup would be ideal for -NAO conditions though.

The development of El Nino next year would be mean that we could see another amazing Winter setup next year. With a favorable QBO and Stratospheric warming possibilities from an active Sun, I would be throwing around 09-10 analogs next Fall if this scenario were to occur. Where a potential ENSO event sets up makes quite the difference, huh?

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

We've never had a strong Niño after a strong Niña in the post-1950 regime, so I wouldn't say it's likely. That's a big transition to make...we'll have to see if any Kelvin Waves start surfacing in the springtime, but I'm not going to bet on that option yet.

I'll say this is a simply matter of not having enough data.

Since 1950, there have been only 6 Strong La Nina's. That's one every 8.3 years.

Since 1950, there have been only 6 Strong El NIno's. That's one every 8.3 year too.

Based on these numbers, we should expect a Strong El Nino to follow a Strong La Nina once every 69 years. 1/69. We are 0/60, which really proves nothing in this regard.

The odds of having a Strong El Nino are always very low. Climo says the event is unlikely, but that doesn't mean it can't happen. We have to consider it as a possibility, maybe even an above average one.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

We've never had a strong Niño after a strong Niña in the post-1950 regime, so I wouldn't say it's likely. That's a big transition to make...we'll have to see if any Kelvin Waves start surfacing in the springtime, but I'm not going to bet on that option yet. Given that the IRI analysis is calling for a weak Niña as well as many of the analogs, that's what I'm aiming for. Also, the cold anomalies at the surface in the western ENSO regions seem to be holding pretty well despite the warming underneath, and SOI recently has been as high as +50 which means the globe is overall experiencing a Niña like wind pattern.

The same thing happened with the eastern regions warming in 1999, so unless you can prove otherwise I'd assume it's just part of a cycle and doesn't mean ENSO is going one way or another:

A strong Niña followed in 99-00.

I agree - it's too early to use ENSO SSTs to confidently predict the future trend of this event. All we can do is guess at odds. As a preliminary guess I'll go with:

15% chance of Moderate or Strong Nina

05% chance of Weak Nina

20% chance of Neutral

25% chance of Weak Nino

35% chance of Moderate or Strong Nino

[Chris L]

It would ultimately come down to where the El Nino is dominate. A Strong East-based setup like 82-83 or 97-98 would produce a pattern that doesn't match well downstream with -NAO wavelengths. A +NAO tendency would probably occur as a result, even in this negative regime. A west-based setup would be ideal for -NAO conditions though.

The development of El Nino next year would be mean that we could see another amazing Winter setup next year. With a favorable QBO and Stratospheric warming possibilities from an active Sun, I would be throwing around 09-10 analogs next Fall if this scenario were to occur. Where a potential ENSO event sets up makes quite the difference, huh?

Chuck, you really quite will be throwing that analog out, because that truly is pure winter heaven.

But, wouldn't a weaker nino offer more colder air in Canada? Last year while as great as it was, didn't really have that much cold, but that was LARGELY due to the -AO/-NAO.

But we have a favorable period in the NAO State and QBO, so maybe next winter will be another big one.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Chuck, you really quite will be throwing that analog out, because that truly is pure winter heaven.

But, wouldn't a weaker nino offer more colder air in Canada? Last year while as great as it was, didn't really have that much cold, but that was LARGELY due to the -AO/-NAO.

Yes, Weak El Nino's after Stronger Nina's usually feature a lot of Arctic air. The globe is colder in this state than in stronger El Nino events, and the La Nina globe-cooling remnants definitely help.

[nzucker]

I agree - it's too early to use ENSO SSTs to confidently predict the future trend of this event. All we can do is guess at odds. As a preliminary guess I'll go with:

15% chance of Moderate or Strong Nina

05% chance of Weak Nina

20% chance of Neutral

25% chance of Weak Nino

35% chance of Moderate or Strong Nino

WOAH...here's my guess:

Moderate/Strong Niña: 20%

Weak Niña: 25%

Neutral: 25%

Weak Niño: 20%

Moderate/Strong Niño:10%

I still think the fact we've seen so many multi-year events starting with a strong Niña has to bias the forecast towards -ENSO. Regardless of what the sun is doing, and particularly because we're in a long-term -AAM/-PDO regime which favors one ENSO state over the others.

Chuck, you really quite will be throwing that analog out, because that truly is pure winter heaven.

But, wouldn't a weaker nino offer more colder air in Canada? Last year while as great as it was, didn't really have that much cold, but that was LARGELY due to the -AO/-NAO.

I think the ideal for the Northeast is a weak, west-based Niño like 77-78. Being on the upper end of weak ensures you get more of the STJ without losing the cold. Not many brutally cold strong Niño winters here...

[nzucker]

BTW where are the beers Chuck?

What happened to El Niño THIS YEAR?

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

BTW where are the beers Chuck?

What happened to El Niño THIS YEAR?

LOL, I completely forgot. My Eastern PM's are gone - which kind do you prefer?

[Chris L]

Chuck,

I missed your posts, you should post more often...

I am a little bit surprised at your odds of a strong nino, it could be something if we get a strong nino west based, I don't think that's happened before).

[nzucker]

LOL, I completely forgot. My Eastern PM's are gone - which kind do you prefer?

Are you coming to the summer conference? We can do it there maybe?

I am planning on attending this time...

[nzucker]

Yes, Weak El Nino's after Stronger Nina's usually feature a lot of Arctic air. The globe is colder in this state than in stronger El Nino events, and the La Nina globe-cooling remnants definitely help.

I would be totally on board for a weak El Niño, not many of those have failed here.

63-64, 68-69, 69-70, 76-77, 77-78, 04-05 were all interesting winters for the NYC area. We usually have some of our coldest weather in a weak Niño.

Obviously 77-78 was the best with the poorly forecasted January blizzard and then the HECS in February, followed by weeks of cold weather that had most of the Northeast> -5F departures by the month's end.

[Supercane]

Here's an interesting fact.. Since 1950, 7 La Nina's had a SON Nino 3.4 average the same as or equal to any point after NDJ. 4/7 Were El Nino the next year (with 3 of the events being Strong!), and 3/7 were La Nina. None were ENSO Neutral. Early peaking La Nina's seem to favor a strong snap back to El Nino if a major force isn't in place to keep conditions La Nina.

I'm not on the El Niño train just yet, but you've raised some interesting points here. Just for fun, I looked to see if there were similar numbers in the MEI, and sure enough, I think the results are even more compelling:

Since 1950, there were 8 mod/strong La Niñas that peaked in MEI in Sep/Oct or earlier:

5/8 saw an El Niño the next winter

2/8 saw a La Niña the next winter

1/8 saw neutral ENSO the next winter

On the flip side, there were 8 mod/strong La Niñas that peaked in MEI after Sep/Oct:

1/8 saw an El Niño the next winter

7/8 saw a La Niña the next winter

0/8 saw neutral ENSO the next winter

So I'd say you are correct in that earlier peaking La Niñas seem to favor El Niño formation the following year. A lot of those were second or third year La Niñas though.

[Supercane]

Some contradicting statistics from the same set of 16 mod/strong La Niñas.

Of the 8 La Niñas that were first year:

1/8 saw an El Niño the next winter

6/8 saw a La Niña the next winter

1/8 saw neutral ENSO the next winter

Of the 8 La Niñas that were second or third year:

5/8 saw an El Niño the next winter

3/8 saw a La Niña the next winter

0/8 saw neutral ENSO the next winter

So a second or third year La Niña also seems to favor an El Niño in the ensuing year.

What we have now is an early peaking, first year mod/strong La Niña. 3 other La Niñas fit this description: 1954-55, 1964-65, and 1988-89. Sure enough, these years give us a 3-way split with regards to ENSO in the following winter: 1 La Niña, 1 El Niño, and 1 neutral ENSO.

[okie333]

I said 2011-12 would be weak Niño way back before this winter began... still looking like it. In the longer term it may become west-based.