easternsnowman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Too much model hugging, we'll get some snow....the question is how much and at this point nobody really knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 What does the Euro show for in terms of qpf for DC Balt? its .50+ but i would say atleast half that is rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Here's some approximate point QPF totals all 12z guidance except the UK... SID NAM GFS GEM ECM MPO 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.00 ABE 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.03 RDG 0.04 0.00 0.15 0.08 TTN 0.05 0.00 0.12 0.03 PHL 0.19 0.01 0.24 0.12 ILG 0.27 0.02 0.36 0.24 ACY 0.33 0.04 0.37 0.19 GED 0.77 0.24 0.66 0.44 12Z EC not much different than 0Z... a bit wetter in DE but otherwise mostly unchanged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Guess its not hard to figure out why no one's mentioned the 18Z NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 Guess its not hard to figure out why no one's mentioned the 18Z NAM... thats cause its a Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Ray Of course you chose to leave out the "model of choice" per JB's latest update....what would your mentor think of you now?? Here's some approximate point QPF totals all 12z guidance except the UK... SID NAM GFS GEM ECM MPO 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.00 ABE 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.03 RDG 0.04 0.00 0.15 0.08 TTN 0.05 0.00 0.12 0.03 PHL 0.19 0.01 0.24 0.12 ILG 0.27 0.02 0.36 0.24 ACY 0.33 0.04 0.37 0.19 GED 0.77 0.24 0.66 0.44 12Z EC not much different than 0Z... a bit wetter in DE but otherwise mostly unchanged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 Ray Of course you chose to leave out the "model of choice" per JB's latest update....what would your mentor think of you now?? whats his latest model of choice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 18z GFS = (Snow) Fail.......................exception could be NE PA and N. Jerz with round 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 18z GFS = (Snow) Fail exception could be NE PA and N. Jerz with round 1. northern del extreme southeast pa and southern nj get 1-3 on wave number 2 and some ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 northern del extreme southeast pa and southern nj get 1-3 on wave number 2 and some ice. Yeah, not much to write home about. I actually am enjoying looking at my (brown, soggy) grass for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 Yeah, not much to write home about. no not at all, but for snow lovers just seeing it snow would be satisfying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 no not at all, but for snow lovers just seeing it snow would be satisfying. True. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 whats his latest model of choice? That'd be the UKMET... but we don't get the 6-hour precip in any form beyond 60 hours as far as I can remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 northern del extreme southeast pa and southern nj get 1-3 on wave number 2 and some ice. Slightly north of 12z which is good if it reverses the south trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 That'd be the UKMET... but we don't get the 6-hour precip in any form beyond 60 hours as far as I can remember. yea, so you don't know how much of this qpf falls as snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 18z gfs ens mean looks better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Wes has said before and I'll repeat him: This close in you shouldn't use the GEFS. Look at the SREF. 18z gfs ens mean looks better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I'm sitting here in Elko watching yet another storm fail to materialize, and I feel like the guys in the Pocs: Bring on Spring! If we're gonna get screwed, lets get screwed royally... no more snow til next winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Wes has said before and I'll repeat him: This close in you shouldn't use the GEFS. Look at the SREF. I thought at 60 hrs out, it might be ok. Sorry will not post Ens. this close anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 Wes has said before and I'll repeat him: This close in you shouldn't use the GEFS. Look at the SREF. I thought at 60 hrs out, it might be ok. Sorry will not post Ens. this close anymore. dont mind ray, he's cranky cause of his above post. When ray doesn;t get snow and he gets screwed, he's like a child without a nap lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Here's the 15Z SREF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 dont mind ray, he's cranky cause of his above post. When ray doesn;t snow and he gets screwed he's like a child without a nap lol Hey now, I was just educating the kid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 Hey now, I was just educating the kid lol as was I...anyways, the srefs still argue for 1-3 for se pa northern del and southern jerz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Here's the 15Z SREF... I'm liking that. Keep it south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Hey now, I was just educating the kid Thanks.. at what point do you stop looking at gefs, and start looking sref? Oh and by the way I'm a 33 year old kid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Thanks.. at what point do you stop looking at gefs, and start looking sref? Oh and by the way I'm a 33 year old kid. I guess I should say "old man" then (I'm 29 ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Thanks.. at what point do you stop looking at gefs, and start looking sref? Oh and by the way I'm a 33 year old kid. Oh, and to answer your question, once the event starts to get within 72 hours, certainly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I'm liking that. Keep it south... Disagree entirely. I'm not ready for winter to be over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Oh, and to answer your question, once the event starts to get within 72 hours, certainly... Thanks for the info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 And right as I was complaining about another storm failing to materialize, a heavy snow squall moved in here... First inch of snow in almost 2 months here! THANK GOD! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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