famartin Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 The GFS says http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aIrhVo1WA78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 The GFS says ggem and to a degree the gfs ens mean say.... though im not sure if its all snow or what not... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 GGEM almost identical to 12z. Awesome stuff seeing some continuity from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pythium Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 GGEM was very good with end of Jan storm.............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 heres the ggem color map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 heres the ggem color map Nice 20-25 mm bullseye around the Philly metro area. Good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 GGEM was very good with end of Jan storm.............. Oh yeah, it was GREAT with the storm on 1/21... in fact, the NAM was JUST as good if I recall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pythium Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 yes it was GFS lagged Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 per the ggem, looks like we waste about a quarter to third of precip on mix rain, then it goes over to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 Don't know what frame you're talking about tombo, but we look good on all of them. Phl may mix a little in the beginning, but the immediate NW burbs are all snow. no, i didnt post the rain ones lol the first half of the storm is rain or first third. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 no, i didnt post the rain ones lol the first half of the storm is rain or first third. http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html Haha yea I realized that after I posted that. Sorry about that haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 looking at ewall maps, looks like we waste, .25-.5 on mix/rain...the remaining .5-.75 is snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 NEPA screw zone on this run. All rain for the first event, and very little snow for the second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 euro has init.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 looking at ewall maps, looks like we waste, .25-.5 on mix/rain...the remaining .5-.75 is snow Not bad at all.. You got the PBP? or you want to get it? not sure if you gotta be up early for work... EDit** nvm, i see you have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 through hr 48 the confluence is stronger out ahead of the first system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 just looking at the pv positioning on the euro, this run should be colder and further south. The pv is displaced further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 hr 66 has the 850 line running along the pa turnpike.. .1-.25 qpf runs from sw pa through southern oh, southern and central indiana and illinois Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 hr 72 has the 850 line along the m/d line and the frz line just north...mod to hvy precip breaking out in the ohio valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 hr 78 has lgt snow .01-.1 for the region..heavier precip in western pa and ohio.. surface temps 20-25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 hr 72 has the 850 line along the m/d line and the frz line just north...mod to hvy precip breaking out in the ohio valley By 78, it's slower and a bit north of the GFS same time frame.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 hr 84 .1-.25 southern pa to extreme se pa through southern jerz.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 hr 90 its over, pretty much a 1-3 event for se pa and southern jerz.... pv was displaced to far south and crushes it.. dyl to reading line is an inch or less from the 2nd storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 hr 90 its over, pretty much a 1-3 event for se pa and southern jerz.... pv was displaced to far south and crushes it.. dyl to reading line is an inch or less from the 2nd storm Farther south than the 12Z run I take it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 Farther south than the 12Z run I take it? Looking at it, the low pressure track is about the same, and the zone of precip is the same, its just the low is weaker and get sheared out easier, prob cause of the pv orientation. Its like a catch 22 almost to get the 2nd storm you almost want the first storm to go further north, but then you have to deal with the warm push with it and trying to cool back down fast before the storm comes in. The further south the first storm is the further south and weaker the 2nd storm is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 hr 90 its over, pretty much a 1-3 event for se pa and southern jerz.... pv was displaced to far south and crushes it.. dyl to reading line is an inch or less from the 2nd storm Farther south than the 12Z run I take it? South trend for the win! You guys in the LV and Philly can have it, I don't want anymore this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 hr 90 its over, pretty much a 1-3 event for se pa and southern jerz.... pv was displaced to far south and crushes it.. dyl to reading line is an inch or less from the 2nd storm I'm glad I didn't bite into the "storm" aspect of this snow...1-3 is pretty run of the mill and I'm skeptical of the 3 happening in PA...suppression tends to work against us in the last runs...would not be surprised to see a bit less in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 06 runs trended south for Round 1 - 850 line cuts through mid-PA and between phl+ny. For round 2 NAM trended south and GFS north bringing them better in agreement. Phl lies between the snow areas for rounds 1 and 2 and doesn't get much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bilas Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 South trend for the win! You guys in the LV and Philly can have it, I don't want anymore this winter. You sound like the women at work they have been saying that since December. Yes I know its been cold and yes I know we had a lot of snow. It's winter, if it was March 27th or say April 4th I could understand but its still winter isn't it? Sorry but been hearing this story all winter at work... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 You sound like the women at work they have been saying that since December. Yes I know its been cold and yes I know we had a lot of snow. It's winter, if it was March 27th or say April 4th I could understand but its still winter isn't it? Sorry but been hearing this story all winter at work... Given the rip-off he's had, its probably the lesser of two evils for him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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