tombo82685 Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 nam is .5-.75 through hr 84 from phl to abe with more snow to fall after hr 84. Pretty dang cold to looks like low to mid 20s with 850s -6 to -10, thought the ratios are pretty blah, 700 mb temps are not ideal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 6+" in 6-hr for a large area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 NAM is a big hit...shocked honestly.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 per sv, the nam snowfall is 4-8 for the entire area, with 8-12 for the lehigh valley and pocs, which includes rd 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 nam is .5-.75 through hr 84 from phl to abe with more snow to fall after hr 84. Pretty dang cold to looks like low to mid 20s with 850s -6 to -10, thought the ratios are pretty blah, 700 mb temps are not ideal seems like mountains rob some mositure, but stilla decent hit through 84. SV snow map 48hr totals through 84 would be PHL: 4-8".. 850 temps -8to -12 celcius @ 850.. pretty good ratios for sure NW NJ to scranton to poconos up to tioga county to BGM would be about 8-12 ( but i believe most of that is from 1st wave) Pittsburg sweet spot with 12" plus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 seems like mountains rob some mositure, but stilla decent hit through 84. SV snow map 48hr totals through 84 would be PHL: 4-8".. 850 temps -8to -12 celcius @ 850.. pretty good ratios for sure NW NJ to scranton to poconos up to tioga county to BGM would be about 8-12 ( but i believe most of that is from 1st wave) Pittsburg sweet spot with 12" plus still looks like for snow after hr 84 according to the maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Holy shiatt at the NAM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 seems like mountains rob some mositure, but stilla decent hit through 84. SV snow map 48hr totals through 84 would be PHL: 4-8".. 850 temps -8to -12 celcius @ 850.. pretty good ratios for sure NW NJ to scranton to poconos up to tioga county to BGM would be about 8-12 ( but i believe most of that is from 1st wave) Pittsburg sweet spot with 12" plus Im not sure about that. In the snow growth region around 700mb the temps are -5 to -6 which isnt ideal for good snow growth. Usually you want it around -10. Im not positive on this so if someone with a better knowledge of this has a better explanation please chime in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Im not sure about that. In the snow growth region around 700mb the temps are -5 to -6 which isnt ideal for good snow growth. Usually you want it around -10. Im not positive on this so if someone with a better knowledge of this has a better explanation please chime in. Would take insane rates and at night to get any accums. on the roads with these temps lately...but it will be nice to see anything white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 NAM as modeled is a very nice snowstorm. Has nice coupled jet at 300 mb and very strong temp gradient across area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 Would take insane rates and at night to get any accums. on the roads with these temps lately...but it will be nice to see anything white. The roads are going to have an issue to accumulate but the grass areas should accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 not to butt in or anything but if you guys get what the NAM showed it will be an awesome snowstorm...it will accumulate on roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 NAM looks great, but caution as it's at the end of its range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 heres the clown map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 NAM looks great, but caution as it's at the end of its range. Yes we know..but it is nice to look at heavy snow rates on a model 72 hours or so away when I was in shorts outside today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Accumulation shouldn't be a problem except at start in southern sections. Temps will be dropping throughout storm plus storm will take place at night. Those are heavy snow rates - 1" per hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 there is a weird calm but mellow vibe in this thread. Must suspect tomorrow if the GFS follows the bait tonight that we have a serious storm that may push PHL over 40 inches for the year. Heck I could push 65 + for the year if the models trend just as expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Temperatures below 20F at phl by tues AM. Quite a turnaround. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 gfs is nada for 2nd event, pv further south and crushes it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 GFS says what storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 GFS says what storm? ride the nam....much better in this pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Yup. GFS is weak and to the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 heres the ukie at hr 72, kind of like the nam but warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 heres the ukie at hr 72, kind of like the nam but warmer 2/3 having the storm is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 2/3 having the storm is good. prob 1/2 of the storm is mixing or rain on the ukie like the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 2/3 having the storm is good. UK always runs warm..confirmed years ago! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 UK always runs warm..confirmed years ago! with a low track like that it makes sense with the warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 anybody got the GGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 anybody got the GGEM? won;t be out prob for another 15 mins or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 With the trends this winter and before, I'd go with a GFS solution from a few days ago, basically hedging toward the GFS ensemble means. When has the 78-84 NAM come to fruition, if ever? I am doubting the ultra suppressed solution for the 2nd storm, but some light snows, not amounting to much is my guess. Go with the EURO and GFS means...take it to Vegas baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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