ag3 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 More like EZF to Trenton Do you have that precip link for the GGEM? http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 from ttn-phl its .25+ of snow on the euro.....phl does not start out as rain on this run..... just south of phl-baltimore it .50+ but prob start off as ice first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 12z Euro comes in colder for Monday nights event. The system appears to be week. But overall, it would be a mainly rain changing over to snow Monday evening.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 First Map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Sounds good to me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 18, 2011 Author Share Posted February 18, 2011 As tim outline looks like phl to northern del through miv to acy its is 2-4 with some spots to 5 -6 inches on the euro...northern burbs to abe its 1-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Wow, I will DEFINITLEY take that map! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Kathy Orr says maybe an inch of snow Tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 I guess I will post in this forum while I am at school. I attend the University of Delaware in Newark, DE. If models are correct and starting to pin point exact details it does appear as though a moderate snowfall is possible for the area. The first wave although weak, warm, and to our north provides us with nothing of significance but it is important in establishing the cold air source and shifting the baroclinic zone south. The second part of energy develops on the displaced baroclinic zone over our area and as a result we experience some enhanced precipitation and the confluence and cold high to our north funnel down colder air into the region. Could be a moderate event 3-6 for some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Could be a moderate event 3-6 for some areas. 12" or bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Man Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 I guess I will post in this forum while I am at school. I attend the University of Delaware in Newark, DE. If models are correct and starting to pin point exact details it does appear as though a moderate snowfall is possible for the area. The first wave although weak, warm, and to our north provides us with nothing of significance but it is important in establishing the cold air source and shifting the baroclinic zone south. The second part of energy develops on the displaced baroclinic zone over our area and as a result we experience some enhanced precipitation and the confluence and cold high to our north funnel down colder air into the region. Could be a moderate event 3-6 for some areas. Great school which I graduated from in 1987. I took a meteorology course while there (accounting major). If I remember correctly it had to do with reading/preparing maps. I agree with your analysis by the way. I think the forecasts are underplaying the potential right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 12" or bust Bust (I hope). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 tombo what do sfc temps look like on the 12z ECM? The GFS has us hitting 60 on Monday, which would mean our snow would have a hard time accumulating. I wonder if it's on its own with those high numbers with Round 1... Meanwhile, 18z GFS scrapes the area, general 0.1-0.25 SN for philly & north, 0.25-0.50 SN (starts as mix) south of PHL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 I am not Tombo...but i have the 6 hr maps and high temps on monday from about E C PA south are 50-60 degrees @ 18 Z monday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 18, 2011 Author Share Posted February 18, 2011 tombo what do sfc temps look like on the 12z ECM? The GFS has us hitting 60 on Monday, which would mean our snow would have a hard time accumulating. I wonder if it's on its own with those high numbers with Round 1... Meanwhile, 18z GFS scrapes the area, general 0.1-0.25 SN for philly & north, 0.25-0.50 SN (starts as mix) south of PHL samething on the euro, pops us to about 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Man Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 samething on the euro, pops us to about 60 If that is the case I don't buy a significant accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 18, 2011 Author Share Posted February 18, 2011 If that is the case I don't buy a significant accumulation. on the roads i agree...but it can accumulate on the grass easily...besides the ggem, no other model as of now shows anything significant..mainly 2-4 with some spots up to 5-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 on the roads i agree...but it can accumulate on the grass easily...besides the ggem, no other model as of now shows anything significant..mainly 2-4 with some spots up to 5-6 Maybe I misunderstood? The 12Z and 18Z GFS both show around about 6 inches for both northern DE and PHL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Does anyone care to post some general thoughts on accums for the GGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 Maybe I misunderstood? The 12Z and 18Z GFS both show around about 6 inches for both northern DE and PHL. the 18z gfs is like 2-3 inches for the 2nd wave...12z was more. The euro has been consistent with 2-4, 3-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 NAM at 84 looks slower, a bit more north than GFS and should be even better at 90 if it had a 90. Have to check the dgex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 NAM at 84 looks slower, a bit more north than GFS and should be even better at 90 if it had a 90. Have to check the dgex it looks like 3-6 on the dgex, that could be higher though, ratios later on would be pretty dang good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 The 21z SREFs are fairly wet/cold with overrunning precip around hour 60 At this frame, the 850/surface 0C lines are just south of Philly, being farther south of that for the majority of the overrunning precip For the main system, there is a region of .25+ liquid on the mean for the 12 hours ending at 87 hours for Philly south, with some of this being rain, though the 6 hour precip >.25 liquid at the end of the period suggest a number of SREF members are showing some heavy precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 Ray's model of choice for this up coming event http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/RSMEAST_0z/rsmloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 it looks like 3-6 on the dgex, that could be higher though, ratios later on would be pretty dang good. Dgex looks like a nice hit for Philly and burbs, Rays model.... Well it is Presidents day Did Ray book his flight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Through 60 hours, the NAM is generally a bit weaker/cooler/farther south with the initial wave compared to the 12z run, with more overrunning precip, although mainly north of the city. ==== Through 72 hours, the second wave of precip is more separated from the first wave than previous runs and thus is more amplified and organized with temps are fairly cool over the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Round 2 looks potent at 72hr on NAM Closed off at 500mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Heavy snow for the Lehigh Valley south at 81 on the NAM. What an odd setup...snow to drizzle to 40s-50s to more snow...all in less than 2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 nam is hitting northern del on east and north pretty good at hr 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 84 hours has all of the region south of I-80 getting hit hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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