famartin Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 The Wxsim program with the 6z data now has 8" to 10" of snow accumulating by the Tuesday AM rush here is the breakdown Lt rain/snow mix sunday evening to occasional light rain during the day Monday temps in the mid 30's Moderate snow gets underway by 830pm on Monday night with temps falling below freezing Heavy snow much of the night with 8" to 10" of snow by am rush. In the extended (beyond NAM range) where the WxSim relies solely on the GFS (I presume), you might as well say "the GFS says" instead of WxSim program says Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 sort of true but because it runs in a linear fashion from the point of initialization and within the NAM range it relies on a blended average of the 2 models till that point and then it gradually bends (on temps) toward the GFS but it is not a straight GFS forecast(especially on temps) because it will use the blend as the starting point for temps and not the GFS. Paul In the extended (beyond NAM range) where the WxSim relies solely on the GFS (I presume), you might as well say "the GFS says" instead of WxSim program says Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 sort of true but because it runs in a linear fashion from the point of initialization and within the NAM range it relies on a blended average of the 2 models till that point and then it gradually bends (on temps) toward the GFS but it is not a straight GFS forecast(especially on temps) because it will use the blend as the starting point for temps and not the GFS. Paul does the Wxsim have options where you can incorporate other model runs too or is it limited to the NAM & GFS?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Anyone feel like this is going to do the same thing the feb 1 storm where it was a hit for dc, then phl, then nyc then sne where it wound up consistently going for till the event happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 It uses a blend of : Home weather station (wind direction, temps, cloud cover, historical parameters) Metar (advection routines) Buoy data RAOB FOUS (NAM) MOS (GFS) MOS (NAM) It does not incorporate any other models (although the programmer has thoughts of adding RUC potentially) does the Wxsim have options where you can incorporate other model runs too or is it limited to the NAM & GFS?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I think were in excellent shape, even as far north as NYC. The event is not even in the NAM's range yet and people are trying to write off the threat. The Euro has been horrifically inconsistent this season. All of the models have busted badly this season and the Euro has been no exception. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I think were in excellent shape, even as far north as NYC. The event is not even in the NAM's range yet and people are trying to write off the threat. The Euro has been horrifically inconsistent this season. All of the models have busted badly this season and the Euro has been no exception. You have a very strange definition of "excellent shape" I would call "excellent shape" as being every conceivable model showing a great hit for many consecutive runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 You have a very strange definition of "excellent shape" I would call "excellent shape" as being every conceivable model showing a great hit for many consecutive runs. so far whenever that's happened this year we have ended up denied and dissapointed. We all saw how well that worked out for the 2/9 threat. We have had our best hits with moderate spread 3-5 days out and having things fall into place inside of 48hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 12Z GFS at 120 looks very similar to 06Z run at 126, a little weaker and a bit smaller precip shield but would still be an accumulating snow for much of the CWA. A bit further north with the precip shield from the 0Z run at 132 hr for comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 A significant snow is definitly on the table for an event 5-6 days from now for most of the Mt. Holly CWA. I'm personally shocked by the lack of activity on this board. I think the current torch has caused many to take a break from model watching for the last few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 A significant snow is definitly on the table for an event 5-6 days from now for most of the Mt. Holly CWA. I'm personally shocked by the lack of activity on this board. I think the current torch has caused many to take a break from model watching for the last few days. Yea the warmth has taken a front seat to this threat. Round 2 Tues AM looks to be all snow on the 12z GFS. But main slug of precip stays south....for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Yea the warmth has taken a front seat to this threat. Round 2 Tues AM looks to be all snow on the 12z GFS. But main slug of precip stays south....for now Tony did a nice write up on the long range AFD. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I'm personally shocked by the lack of activity on this board. I forum split didnt help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 so far whenever that's happened this year we have ended up denied and dissapointed. When has every single conceivable model shown a great hit for many consecutive runs? I don't recall any such situation this year. We all saw how well that worked out for the 2/9 threat. We have had our best hits with moderate spread 3-5 days out and having things fall into place inside of 48hrs. Plenty of these haven't worked out, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 lol perhaps the forum split was a curse. The 2/9 threat sizzled out right after the forums were split and now we've been torching or forecast to torch ever since. Pure coincidence? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 wow Northeaster you seem a bit too bullish this far out and eager seeing there has been no model trend or agreement with this event and we are not exactly in the pattern we were in before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 17, 2011 Author Share Posted February 17, 2011 12z ggem is miss to the north with the first wave...2nd wave looks like rain going over to some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 17, 2011 Author Share Posted February 17, 2011 One thing that i don't like that the gfs is showing. On monday the gfs has a mid 60s for phl then 12 hrs later we are snowing, that usually never works out in phl favor. If it does snow its going to have a rough time sticking on the pavement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 12z ggem is miss to the north with the first wave...2nd wave looks like rain going over to some snow. Consensus with wave 1 is pretty strongly north now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 12 Z ECM at 96 hrs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Wow, that's some serious cold air sitting North of upstate NY associated with the PV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 120 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unknown Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 GGEM actually is all rain with 2nd wave. 1st wave gets too strong and pulls to much warm air for 2nd wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 The split has nothing to do with it. Its quiet because I don't think most people buy this as a legit threat given the pattern we're in. The forums have gone dormant because this pattern sucks for wintry weather and it doesn't look like its going to change in time to save the end of winter. So be it...this winter overperformed for the most part relative to expectations. Go enjoy the warmth. FWIW...I love the forum split......don't have to listen to the endless wishcasting by the NYC/NNJ crew.....or their endless backyard talk forum split didnt help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 The split has nothing to do with it. Its quiet because I don't think most people buy this as a legit threat given the pattern we're in. The forums have gone dormant because this pattern sucks for wintry weather and it doesn't look like its going to change in time to save the end of winter. So be it...this winter overperformed for the most part relative to expectations. Go enjoy the warmth. FWIW...I love the forum split......don't have to listen to the endless wishcasting by the NYC/NNJ crew.....or their endless backyard talk I disagree - the storm threats are there (Euro has a small snow event.) Today is beautiful, but no reason to declare winter over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I for one, still think it can snow, but the warmth has really won me over into almost not caring if it does or not. Now, if the models can come into better agreement about a solid hit of snow Monday night into Tuesday, I'll board the snow train, but for now, if I do not see a consensus (which this winter has been impossible, especially 4-5 days out) I'm not getting too caught up in each model run. Mainly checking the 12z around this time, and the 00z models when I wake up in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 The split has nothing to do with it. Its quiet because I don't think most people buy this as a legit threat given the pattern we're in. The forums have gone dormant because this pattern sucks for wintry weather and it doesn't look like its going to change in time to save the end of winter. So be it...this winter overperformed for the most part relative to expectations. Go enjoy the warmth. FWIW...I love the forum split......don't have to listen to the endless wishcasting by the NYC/NNJ crew.....or their endless backyard talk I went for a run during the lunch hour....it's awesome out. Unless you have to be stuck inside an office nobody should be worrying some overrunning event five days out that can't hold any consistency from model run to model run. It's frickin 65 degrees out. Enjoy it while you can.... FWIW, four years ago we were in the 60's the day before the St. Patrick's sleet storm and almost 80 two days prior. At this time of the year, anything's possible and the models are going to struggle in this type of pattern... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unknown Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Individual GFS member. Weaker 1st wave and stronger 2nd wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 say what you want about the analogs, this is the #3 analog over the east through 72hrs based on 2M temps. #6 based on 500mb setup and 10th overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Wow I thought winter was over, I guess not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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