SmokeEater Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Correct me if I'm wrong....the NWS Zones has this as two seperate events, right????? INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PHILADELPHIA 405 PM EST SUN FEB 20 2011 .TONIGHT...RAIN LIKELY THIS EVENING...THEN SNOW LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF SLEET AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION AROUND AN INCH. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. .WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY...RAIN. SNOW LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF SLEET IN THE MORNING. ADDITIONAL SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. HIGHS AROUND 40. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH...BECOMING NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT. ==== .MONDAY NIGHT...SNOW LIKELY. RAIN LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF SLEET IN THE EVENING. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT. Yes. What's the problem? At the most 2 inches out of the 1st event, and then 2 more out of the 2nd one, is the call by reading that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 WSW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Yes. What's the problem? At the most 2 inches out of the 1st event, and then 2 more out of the 2nd one, is the call by reading that. Chill out.......just making sure it wasn't saying TOTAL Monday night meaning, from tonight through Monday night. No big deal. Just asking a question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Depends on how they ran the snow total tool. If they ran it for the whole period (through Monday night), than that total is for the whole period. Based on the graphic posted, that's indeed what they did. Thanks for explanation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Chill out.......just making sure it wasn't saying TOTAL Monday night meaning, from tonight through Monday night. No big deal. Just asking a question. Took it the wrong way, I thought you were asking why it didn't say more then that, like some people usually do. Sorry bout that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Took it the wrong way, I thought you were asking why it didn't say more then that, like some people usually do. Sorry bout that. Gotcha. I'm not one of those people who b**ch like that. The NWS knows their stuff, I trust them over anyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbTC Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 449 PM EST SUN FEB 20 2011 COUNTY SPECIFIC MESSAGE: ...LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW AND SLEET EXPECTED... SNOW MIXING WITH SLEET SHOULD ACCUMULATE BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT. AROUND TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR AND NORTH OF A MANASQUAN TO TRENTON TO LANCASTER LINE, WITH LESSER AMOUNTS EXPECTED SOUTH. PRECIPITATION SHOULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN BY DAYBREAK NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. PLEASE BE CAREFUL IF YOU ARE COMMUTING LATE TONIGHT OR TOMORROW MORNING. MPD AFFECTED COUNTIES: IN DELAWARE: NEW CASTLE. IN MARYLAND: CECIL. IN NEW JERSEY: BURLINGTON, BURLINGTON, NORTHWESTERN, CAMDEN, GLOUCESTER, MERCER, MONMOUTH, MONMOUTH, EASTERN, MONMOUTH, WESTERN, OCEAN, OCEAN, COASTAL, SALEM. IN PENNSYLVANIA: BUCKS, CHESTER, DELAWARE, MONTGOMERY, PHILADELPHIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 20, 2011 Author Share Posted February 20, 2011 sv snow maps have 2-4 from i95 west and north, with an area of 4-8 in the susquehanna valley into lanc county into central and western berks co Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 NWS at BGM calling for 7-10" of snowfall here now. Wow.. Was only expecting 2-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Chill out.......just making sure it wasn't saying TOTAL Monday night meaning, from tonight through Monday night. No big deal. Just asking a question. Actually that's exactly what I think they're saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Actually that's exactly what I think they're saying. Ha, and you see why I asked the question. Confuzzled. I thought it was 1" tonight, 1" tomorrow, then a chance of 2-4 "additional" Monday night. But, then it says TOTAL STORM total 2-4". Oh well, no big deal. Bottom line: Its Gon' Snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 20, 2011 Author Share Posted February 20, 2011 buffkit for phl has 3 inches of snow, with good ratios in the middle to end of the event on .26 qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I'm going to go out on a limb and say this doesn't verify. 4-7" tops. STEUBEN-SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TIOGA-BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA- NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CORNING...HORNELL...WATKINS GLEN... ELMIRA...OWEGO...MONTROSE...TUNKHANNOCK...SCRANTON... WILKES-BARRE...HAZLETON...MILFORD...HONESDALE 254 PM EST SUN FEB 20 2011 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * HAZARDS: HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. * ACCUMULATIONS: 7 TO 10 INCHES OF NEW SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I'm going to go out on a limb and say this doesn't verify. 4-7" tops. shocker! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 shocker! Where you are I wouldn't be surprised if you saw 7"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I'm going to go out on a limb and say this doesn't verify. 4-7" tops. STEUBEN-SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TIOGA-BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA- NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CORNING...HORNELL...WATKINS GLEN... ELMIRA...OWEGO...MONTROSE...TUNKHANNOCK...SCRANTON... WILKES-BARRE...HAZLETON...MILFORD...HONESDALE 254 PM EST SUN FEB 20 2011 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * HAZARDS: HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. * ACCUMULATIONS: 7 TO 10 INCHES OF NEW SNOW. Can you ever just be happy it's going to snow? You always find something to complain about. Look at it this way, you're not going to be in your so called NE PA screw zone for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Can you ever just be happy it's going to snow? You always find something to complain about. Look at it this way, you're not going to be in your so called NE PA screw zone for this. Maybe not with round one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I'm going to go out on a limb and say this doesn't verify. 4-7" tops. STEUBEN-SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TIOGA-BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA- NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CORNING...HORNELL...WATKINS GLEN... ELMIRA...OWEGO...MONTROSE...TUNKHANNOCK...SCRANTON... WILKES-BARRE...HAZLETON...MILFORD...HONESDALE 254 PM EST SUN FEB 20 2011 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * HAZARDS: HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. * ACCUMULATIONS: 7 TO 10 INCHES OF NEW SNOW. And the meteorological reason(s) why you think that will not verify is? Also, if the upper end of your range occurred (i.e. 7 inches), then it would verify since they have 7 inches as the start of their range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 sv snow maps have 2-4 from i95 west and north, with an area of 4-8 in the susquehanna valley into lanc county into central and western berks co I'm assuming that is a total of both storms? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 20, 2011 Author Share Posted February 20, 2011 I'm assuming that is a total of both storms? Thanks correct, both events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 shocker! There's a lot of terrain differences in that area though. 7-10" could easily verify at 2000' in Wayne County, Susquehanna County, etc...it might not verify in downtown Scranton though. It's hard to make forecasts for that region since the geography is so intensely varied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 20, 2011 Author Share Posted February 20, 2011 gfs buffkit has 3.8 for phl on rd 2...with .4 on rd 1 ilg looks to be the winner with 5.5 from rd 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 20, 2011 Author Share Posted February 20, 2011 clown map off 18z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 From HPC - for round 2 - They like an SREF/GEFS/GFS combo ...DAY 2.. CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/MID ATLANTIC... THE MODELS INDICATE A LEAD SFC-850 MB WAVE TO MOVE OFFSHORE....FOLLOWED BY STRONG COLD ADVECTION BENEATH A BROAD REGION OF H85-H7 FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS WV/SOUTHERN PA/MD/DELMARVA WITH THE WAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS SECOND WAVE...ON THE NOSE OF A 700 MB JET STREAK AND CONVERGENCE MAXIMA...MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...PRODUCING ASCENT AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANOTHER MIXED TYPE PRECIP EVENT ACROSS THE REGION. THE MODELS HAVE A CONTINUING NORTH-SOUTH SPREAD WITH E NORTHERN QPF/HEAVY SNOW MAXIMUM FURTHEST NORTH WAS FCST BY THE 12Z NAM AND THE FURTHEST SOUTH QPF FCST BY THE 12Z ECMWF...WITH THE FURTHER SOUTH LOW TRACK. ADDITIONALLY...TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE TOO WARM FOR SNOW IN MD AT THE EVENT ONSET...WITH A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW EXPECTED AS THE COLD AIR MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODERATE RISK OF 4+ INCHES ON MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING IS SHOWN WHERE THE BEST OVERLAP AMONG THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS EXISTS ACROSS SOUTHERN PA...CLOSE TO THE SREF MEAN/GEFS MEAN/GFS SOLUTIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 RR/HRRR bringing in some nice echoes...we'll be battling dry mid-levels and very marginal temps for round 1 south of I-78 in pa.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 RR/HRRR bringing in some nice echoes...we'll be battling dry mid-levels and very marginal temps for round 1 south of I-78 in pa.... i'm counting your reports for tomorrow as official for MBY since I don't get back until late 2mrw night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 i'm counting your reports for tomorrow as official for MBY since I don't get back until late 2mrw night thats cheating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 way out in its range but heres the latest 24hr backup ruc sim radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 i'm counting your reports for tomorrow as official for MBY since I don't get back until late 2mrw night eh....i kinda passed this off as a nuisance (1-2") so I don't really have my snow board ready...i'll just be eyeballing it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 There's a lot of terrain differences in that area though. 7-10" could easily verify at 2000' in Wayne County, Susquehanna County, etc...it might not verify in downtown Scranton though. It's hard to make forecasts for that region since the geography is so intensely varied. I don't think elevation is going to make a big difference with this one except perhaps in the Dobbs Ferry, Westchester area at or above 400.' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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