famartin Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 well this is pretty shocking, people probably are getting caught off guard. Im in plowing and was preparing for maybe just some presalt now we are looking at a 2-4 inch event possible which really changes everything. I think the public has no clue what they will wake up to tomorrow. There has been very little talk of much more than a nuisance event here and now its turning into something more. I don't think I'd go 2-4 for Belle Mead just yet... maybe 1-3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 thats still plowable for me, i see Mt Holly has not updated their disco yet, their previous one made this event sound so benign and not one that was so uncertain like it is now. I guess they will have to issue some sort of an advisory really soon as the event is 12 hours away from starting. What are we looking at it terms of end time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rickrd Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I don't think I'd go 2-4 for Belle Mead just yet... maybe 1-3. Any thoughts on ABE to Southern Poconos? NAM and SREF says the area does, could get a pretty good dump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Yeah I'm telling friends and family what the models are showing and they're telling me no way.. go piss up a rope, its going to rain LOL! That is exactly what I have been telling my family and they don't believe me! They must all be brainwashed by local METs and The Weather Channel! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Keep in mind folks the road surfaces have warmed quite a bit in the last week, while they may have cooled back some yesterday it will have to snow moderate to heavy for it to accumulate. With longer daylight now they hold the heat better just something to think about. Glad to be back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Keep in mind folks the road surfaces have warmed quite a bit in the last week, while they may have cooled back some yesterday it will have to snow moderate to heavy for it to accumulate. With longer daylight now they hold the heat better just something to think about. Glad to be back *However* there is a pretty good potential for at least a bit of sleet and that can muck up the roads pretty quickly since it takes longer to melt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 *However* there is a pretty good potential for at least a bit of sleet and that can muck up the roads pretty quickly since it takes longer to melt. You are Correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Keep in mind folks the road surfaces have warmed quite a bit in the last week, while they may have cooled back some yesterday it will have to snow moderate to heavy for it to accumulate. With longer daylight now they hold the heat better just something to think about. Glad to be back Also, this will be starting at night, not during the day, so that adds to potential for road accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I can't believe the spread in the models 24-36 hours out. The NAM comes north, the RGEM goes south with round 2. I guess overall, the GFS and Euro have been the most consistent for round 2? Can't wait to see how this unfolds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Added in the EC QPF for round 2 (this is after 0Z Tuesday): SID NAM GFS GGEM ECM MPO 0.39 0.01 0.00 0.00 ABE 0.49 0.02 0.01 0.01 RDG 0.53 0.09 0.04 0.03 TTN 0.39 0.04 0.01 0.01 PHL 0.50 0.28 0.07 0.08 ILG 0.52 0.38 0.14 0.22 ACY 0.58 0.37 0.13 0.19 GED 0.36 0.31 0.48 0.52 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Central Jersey will be the battle zone for both waves it appears. Almost impossible to predict exactly what is gonna happen here. Could go either way. It sure looks that way for round 1... I can still see less than an inch for TTN, but also more. Round 2 is iffy... but I'm starting to lean toward a non-event. Not sure yet though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 for those interested...Larry Cosgrove just tweeted...Significant Snow for PA/NJ and DE. I also see State College has hoisted WWA for LNS county for 1 to 3" by AM rush Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duality Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 It sure looks that way for round 1... I can still see less than an inch for TTN, but also more. Round 2 is iffy... but I'm starting to lean toward a non-event. Not sure yet though. Ok.. Gun to your head.. Make a decision Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbTC Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 for those interested...Larry Cosgrove just tweeted...Significant Snow for PA/NJ and DE. I also see State College has hoisted WWA for LNS county for 1 to 3" by AM rush He posted an image with it on his Facebook (2nd post down) http://www.facebook.com/?ref=logo#!/larry.cosgrove Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 He posted an image with it on his Facebook (2nd post down) http://www.facebook..../larry.cosgrove If you're not FB friends with him you don't see his posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Ok.. Gun to your head.. Make a decision Less than 1 inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbTC Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 If you're not FB friends with him you don't see his posts. The post Through Tuesday AM: Significant snow and ice event for Lower MI....OH....PA....NJ....N DE....N MD as upper air disturbance interacts with moisture pooling and cold advection from Great Lakes ridge. NYC area will be split in half with no major precipitation above 495. http://tempest.aos.wisc.edu/wxp_images/eta212_12UTC/eta_c700_h42.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 very dry airmass in place...current obs here Temp 38.8 RH 33% DP 12.2 Looking more likely we will move past 40" for the seasonal snowfall here in the NW burbs by morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 15Z SREF 12 hour precip ending 12Z Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 NAM a little farther south with lp but def drier on the 18z run (for round 2).... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 15Z SREF 12 hour precip ending 12Z Tuesday. Shifted back south a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 very dry airmass in place...current obs here Temp 38.8 RH 33% DP 12.2 Looking more likely we will move past 40" for the seasonal snowfall here in the NW burbs by morning Your sig says you need 1.2" to reach 40, yes? GFS and GEM would say you have a good shot, NAM and EC not so much... depends on how much precip gets in before you mix over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 20, 2011 Author Share Posted February 20, 2011 nam still hitting the region good from but did move south with the precip shield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Ray Yep...1.2" - would be surprised if we don't get there by morning...but if not we will likely get there by Tuesday AM. Unlikely we don't see at least 2" between both "events" Paul Your sig says you need 1.2" to reach 40, yes? GFS and GEM would say you have a good shot, NAM and EC not so much... depends on how much precip gets in before you mix over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Would expect a WWA by NWS within the next hour... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Wow... 18Z NAM way north with round 1... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 20, 2011 Author Share Posted February 20, 2011 nam looks like .25-.3 for phl for rd 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 New NAM rounds 1 and 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 New NAM is a little colder for round 2 - should be more snow for phl south compared to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 New NAM rounds 1 and 2 Puts ttn on the edge for both rounds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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