NortheastPAWx Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 yea im not sure what to do on this, cause its the only model north right now...ukmet gfs and ggem are all south and brush the phl area with accum snows. The SREFs were mostly north, weren't they? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 20, 2011 Author Share Posted February 20, 2011 The SREFs were mostly north, weren't they? correct... its basically the globals vs the short range models. It will be interesting to see what the euro does considering its resolution beats all the other globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 correct... its basically the globals vs the short range models. It will be interesting to see what the euro does considering its resolution beats all the other globals. I would think within 48 you start to lean towards the short range...in which case making it a NAM/SREF vs. RGEM situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Neither the GFS or the NAM have developed any consistency yet so would not fall in love with any solution. Odds of a 2-4 event are rising though since most models agree on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 ABE text data has 0.47" QPF for Round 2 with temps 20 degrees and lower. Good ratios. Actually maybe not good ratios. 700 mb temps are above -10C for almost the whole event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 20, 2011 Author Share Posted February 20, 2011 Actually maybe not good ratios. 700 mb temps are above -10C for almost the whole event. yup, buffkit only hits abe with 6.1 snow total for 12z nam, pretty poor ratios for first event....phl is 3.5 for the 2nd event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 GFS snow map. 2-4 for everybody - more in NE pa with round 1 and S Pa/N Md with round 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 yup, buffkit only hits abe with 6.1 snow total for 12z nam, pretty poor ratios for first event....phl is 3.5 for the 2nd event. So we looking at a wet " sticky" snow then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 One good model trend. The screw zone between rounds 1 and 2 is disappearing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 20, 2011 Author Share Posted February 20, 2011 So we looking at a wet " sticky" snow then? Its going to start off pretty poor, then towards the end of the storm ratios will be better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Approximate NAM vs GFS QPF for round 2: SID NAM GFS MPO 0.39 0.01 ABE 0.49 0.02 RDG 0.53 0.09 TTN 0.39 0.04 PHL 0.50 0.28 ILG 0.52 0.38 ACY 0.58 0.37 GED 0.36 0.31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 So the way I am seeing things for my area is...mainly rain with the first round, but the second round could give 2-4 inches. Agree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 GFS tries to make the first event snow/sleet back home (TTN) through the whole event now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 OK here's my totally unofficial, non-governmental call for round one back home: A snow/sleet/freezing rain mess... a coating to an inch or two of snow and sleet. I haven't a clue about Monday night yet, so don't ask Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 OK here's my totally unofficial, non-governmental call for round one back home: A snow/sleet/freezing rain mess... a coating to an inch or two of snow and sleet. I haven't a clue about Monday night yet, so don't ask Care to give a forcast out to edison? nam and gfs keep us as all snow...thanks ray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 20, 2011 Author Share Posted February 20, 2011 ggem misses everyone for rd2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 MM5 south with cold air for first wave on 12Z run, shows freezing precip down through most of Ocean and Burlington counties through daybreak tomorrow with about .2" QPF in that time. Freezing line makes it back into Monmouth County around noon before crashing south again by dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 20, 2011 Author Share Posted February 20, 2011 i know ray hates when this is posted at this timeframe but here is the gfs ens mean 24 hr total for rd 2 i would say its close to the srefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 NAM is probably too wet as it does sometime have this bias....However..the total QPF on the GFS is still .50-.75 for vast majority of the region and from the Lehigh Valley area north it looks to be all frozen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 MM5 south with cold air for first wave on 12Z run, shows freezing precip down through most of Ocean and Burlington counties through daybreak tomorrow with about .2" QPF in that time. Freezing line makes it back into Monmouth County around noon before crashing south again by dark. It looks like for SE Bucks it is all frozen for the first event with 0.5" of qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 NAM shift north surprising... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Added in the GGEM QPF for round 2: SID NAM GFS GGEM MPO 0.39 0.01 0.00 ABE 0.49 0.02 0.01 RDG 0.53 0.09 0.04 TTN 0.39 0.04 0.01 PHL 0.50 0.28 0.07 ILG 0.52 0.38 0.14 ACY 0.58 0.37 0.13 GED 0.36 0.31 0.48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Care to give a forcast out to edison? nam and gfs keep us as all snow...thanks ray Not really 2-4 seems reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Not really 2-4 seems reasonable. Thanks ray..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 round 2 from MM5 is like 0.25"+ of QPF with what looks like all snow for phl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unknown Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 HRRR round 1 snow so far: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 20, 2011 Author Share Posted February 20, 2011 ray you going to add the euro to your qpf totals for the selected locations? Anyways euro has commenced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 ARW 0.25"+ from round 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 ray you going to add the euro to your qpf totals for the selected locations? Anyways euro has commenced I will, but I get it an hour later than you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 20, 2011 Author Share Posted February 20, 2011 through hr 24 the r/s line is basically just south of i78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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