famartin Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 please stay on topic....thanks in advance........ Sometimes I need to remind you how comparatively screwed I've been Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Which storm are you guys talking about? The one tonight or Monday night? NWS is calling for 3-5" of snow here plus some ice for storm 1. 2"- 4" here with .1" of ice possible here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 09 SREF has shifted north a little with round 2 - a nice moderate hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Just got back from an overnight church event with no access to the internet - what can be expected for the Lehigh Valley tonight? Last I heard yesterday evening was 1-3". Sorry in advance for the IMBY question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Latest Wxsim program with 6z models indicates a real mess (0.72" of 0.78" of liquid is mix or frozen) for the philly burbs here is the breakdown Light snow and flurries begin by 830pm tonight temp 34.2 Moderate Snow by 1130pm temp 31.6 Snow with IP mix at times thru 6am with 2-3" of snow/IP accumulating by AM rush ZR/IP mix at 7am temp at 29.8 ZR thru 10am Drizzle and light rain for remainder of day A mix of snow and rain redevelops by 9pm Monday night temp 33.7 Heavy Snow by 2am Wed morning with another 2" of snow accumulating before ending before the AM rush Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 12 z NAM is a nice hit in round 2. Also good for northern sections LV north in round 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I think I'll take the 12Z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Round 2 1AM mon night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I think I'll take the 12Z NAM This is one of the few times in this pattern we can say "thank you" to the SE ridge because it keeps rd 2 from getting suppressed. Trending towards a moderate hit for SE PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 NAM is a 6" snowfall for most of area for round 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billabong Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Here's a comparison of NAM QPF from Round 2... 00z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 NE Pa does well in rounds 1+2 on NAM - 12+" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Does JB riding in on the UKMET score a coup & salvage a shred of respectability this winter?? Definitely moving towards an I-70 to I-80 hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Just a word of caution, there is a warm layer at 750mb on the NAM through 42 hours, Philly is -0.4C at 42 hours (and warmer than -2C through the whole 700mb-800mb layer) after cooling from 0.7C at 36 hours , while Wilmington is still above 0C at the 750mb layer at 42 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Areas from phl south start as sleet in round 2. Bullseye in this area is LV+Poconos for combined 1+2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Just announced: 12z NAM solution is final, no more model runs. That is what is happening in my dreams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 ABE text data has 0.47" QPF for Round 2 with temps 20 degrees and lower. Good ratios. Bufkit shows 4.1" of snow with 1st system and 6.1" of snow with 2nd system. And 72 hour NAM clown map show around a foot for the LV with ratios... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Seems to be getting worse for the southern areas with this northern movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Seems to be getting worse for the southern areas with this northern movement. I'm going to end my life now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 20, 2011 Author Share Posted February 20, 2011 gfs came back south, looks like 2-4 for phil northern del south jerz with an inch or so in the lehigh valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 gfs came back south, looks like 2-4 for phil northern del south jerz with an inch or so in the lehigh valley Same with RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 So little model consistency 2 day out...ugh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 My reverse psychology seemed to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 gfs came back south, looks like 2-4 for phil northern del south jerz with an inch or so in the lehigh valley Round 1 shifted south also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billabong Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 gfs came back south, looks like 2-4 for phil northern del south jerz with an inch or so in the lehigh valley Did it shift south or is it just weaker? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 20, 2011 Author Share Posted February 20, 2011 Did it shift south or is it just weaker? looks like the precip shield shifted south to me. Phl is barely over .25 while 6z was clloser to .5...the track is about the same i guess maybe a hair south, just looks drier with qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 20, 2011 Author Share Posted February 20, 2011 ukmet looks pretty much like the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 gfs looks a little weaker and colder with round 2.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 looks like the precip shield shifted south to me. Phl is barely over .25 while 6z was clloser to .5...the track is about the same i guess maybe a hair south, just looks drier with qpf. NAM is north, though.. sounds like our chances for at least SOME snow are increasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 20, 2011 Author Share Posted February 20, 2011 NAM is north, though.. sounds like our chances for at least SOME snow are increasing. yea im not sure what to do on this, cause its the only model north right now...ukmet gfs and ggem are all south and brush the phl area with accum snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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