unknown Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Not ready to give up on anything. Models all season has underestimated upper level lows. Each run so far is trending stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 00z NAM continues to be just south of area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Yup, Monday's storm passes a little further south across the state of PA on the 00z NAM (vs. previous runs). That doesn't help the chances for the Monday night-Tuesday morning shot of precipitation to come north, that's for sure. Still a close call for some here, so we'll see what the other models/trends show in the next 12-24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Interestingly the Wxsim forecast program with the 0z NAM but still the 18z GFS now indicates wintry problems for the Philly burbs for both Monday and Tuesday mornings commute. Here is the breakdown Moderate Snow arriving by 9pm tomorrow (Sunday)night continuing thru around 5am with 1" to 3" of snow by that time. The snow will mix with and change to Zr by 9am and then go to just drizzle for most of the day. A mix of precip will then redevelop on Monday evening toward 9pm and become steadier snow by midnight....another 1 to 2" may accumulate before ending Tues AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Interestingly the Wxsim forecast program with the 0z NAM but still the 18z GFS now indicates wintry problems for the Philly burbs for both Monday and Tuesday mornings commute. Here is the breakdown Moderate Snow arriving by 9pm tomorrow (Sunday)night continuing thru around 5am with 1" to 3" of snow by that time. The snow will mix with and change to Zr by 9am and then go to just drizzle for most of the day. A mix of precip will then redevelop on Monday evening toward 9pm and become steadier snow by midnight....another 1 to 2" may accumulate before ending Tues AM If storm #1 continues to trend a little further south, that could def. happen Monday morning for the NW burbs........then round 2 could brush the area with a similar dose of snow Monday night. 50 miles one way or the other could have huge impacts during both time periods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allman15 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 And right as I was complaining about another storm failing to materialize, a heavy snow squall moved in here... First inch of snow in almost 2 months here! THANK GOD! please stay on topic....thanks in advance........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 FWIW 00z GFS came north with the second wave...too warm though at 48 hrs... 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 GGEM looks like it came north as well with wave # 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 20, 2011 Author Share Posted February 20, 2011 gfs and ggem look like a decent hit of snow for se pa northern del and southern nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 20, 2011 Author Share Posted February 20, 2011 ggem for the 2nd event is all snow for phl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 yes I'm sane again 00z GFS clown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 FIM model would indeicate a bit of any icy mess especially in the LV with phase 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 like wise north with phase 2 as well from earlier runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 20, 2011 Author Share Posted February 20, 2011 the ggem looks like 3-5 for se pa northern del south jerz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Ukie looks good at 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 CMC is also fairly bullish on issues with the first part of the storm for the Northern parts of the area with phase one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 and the EURO don't really budge from 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 20, 2011 Author Share Posted February 20, 2011 the euro looks like 2-4 for phl immediate burbs, northern del and southern jerz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 DC gets a nice 5-10" shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 20, 2011 Author Share Posted February 20, 2011 DC gets a nice 5-10" shot dc looks like 3-6 to me...they waste half the precip on mixing and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 dc looks like 3-6 to me...they waste half the precip on mixing and rain. What about Baltimore Tombo?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 20, 2011 Author Share Posted February 20, 2011 What about Baltimore Tombo?. you look about the same...you dont waste as much qpf on mixing as dc does, but you get a little less qpf than they do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 you look about the same Thank you . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 20, 2011 Author Share Posted February 20, 2011 Thank you . yea it looks like .25-.5 as snow... dc looks like .4-.6 as snow...its hard to tell cause they change over between hours so i dont know how much falls as snow vs rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 yea it looks like .25-.5 as snow... dc looks like .4-.6 as snow...its hard to tell cause they change over between hours so i dont know how much falls as snow vs rain Well if the EURO is right i will be happy either way, but if the GFS is right i am screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 20, 2011 Author Share Posted February 20, 2011 from what ji said..phl is only .11 for the 2nd wave and .05 for the first wave bringing a total of .16....this is what my map shows, so im not called out on it.. For the first rd it only has .1 or less for phl del and souther jerz...this is then the total qpf after rd 2, so thats how i figured the 2-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 from what ji said..phl is only .11 for the 2nd wave and .05 for the first wave bringing a total of .16....this is what my map shows, so im not called out on it.. For the first rd it only has .1 or less for phl del and souther jerz...this is then the total qpf after rd 2, so thats how i figured the 2-4 Looks like phl is in the .10 to .25 shade so .16 is possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 The 6z RGEM and 6z GFS really amping up precip totals, looks like a consensus is being made for a 2-4 inch type snowfall for PHL Metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 The 6z RGEM and 6z GFS really amping up precip totals, looks like a consensus is being made for a 2-4 inch type snowfall for PHL Metro. Watch the cutoff in the northern burbs. NAM has a pretty sharp cutoff on the 0z and 6z...Quakertown might not get anything while the city gets 3" from round 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Which storm are you guys talking about? The one tonight or Monday night? NWS is calling for 3-5" of snow here plus some ice for storm 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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