ChescoWx Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 My current Wxsim program forecast has a tough Tuesday AM commute but not the "disruptive" storm that is still being indicating in JB's latest update...he has this to say about the 2nd system...."the back system then has to come THROUGH the ridge.. further south. The ridge then backs up toward the western gulf to some extent in response to the trough that is diving off the west coast and this allows that second system to phase with the northern branch. The UKMET is the most extreme with this idea and is the current model I favor, since as I have explained before, this is a pattern that loves extremes" The Wxsim has a drizzle developing by 6pm tomorrow night with temps at 43.2. This transitions to light snow by 9pm temp at 36.4...then over to IP/ZR by 3am with temps falling to 31.5. ZR then continues thru 830am before tapering to PM drizzle. Around 1 to 2" of snow and some ZR/IP total liquid about 0.34" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Too much disagreement at this point to get excited for snow or no snow at this point. Honestly, part me is saying bring on the warmth and sunshine. The differences between the NAM and GFS continue to astound me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 On 2/19/2011 at 1:35 PM, Parsley said: Too much disagreement at this point to get excited for snow or no snow at this point. Honestly, part me is saying bring on the warmth and sunshine. The differences between the NAM and GFS continue to astound me. Agreed. The last few days have me spoiled and if it didn't snow another flake this winter i am fine with it. It will be back next year and i believe we are starting a string of some good winters, beginning with last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 It seems like the trend is to make the first wave colder and snowier while suppressing the second wave so places like DC can get in on the fun. We'll see if it continues during the 12z runs today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Has anyone looked/discussed the 0z Nam? It looks "interesting" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 On 2/19/2011 at 1:59 PM, wederwarrior said: Has anyone looked/discussed the 0z Nam? It looks "interesting" Try reading the last few pages of posts :rolleyes: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 12Z nam trends further north with first round of precip, a warmer solution. Might pull the 2nd round a bit further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 On 2/19/2011 at 2:27 PM, Capt. Adam said: 12Z nam trends further north with first round of precip, a warmer solution. Might pull the 2nd round a bit further north. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/WRFEAST_12z/f66.gif round two shifted south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Well, GEFS, Euro, SREFs, and the GGEM are still on board getting accum precip North of the m-d, we'll see how that holds up with their respective 12Z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 On 2/19/2011 at 2:44 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: Well, GEFS, Euro, SREFs, and the GGEM are still on board getting accum precip North of the m-d, we'll see how that holds up with their respective 12Z runs. Actually, I believe the 0Z EC was fairly close to the new 12Z NAM, QPF wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 On 2/19/2011 at 2:36 PM, phlwx said: http://www.meteo.psu...AST_12z/f66.gif round two shifted south yup...not really much of anything for this area on the 12 NAM runs... rd 1 north, rd 2 south as some people call a DC special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 On 2/19/2011 at 2:51 PM, Darkstar said: yup...not really much of anything for this area on the 12 NAM runs... rd 1 north, rd 2 south as some people call a DC special DC's been fairly screwed this winter so let them have a little fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 On 2/19/2011 at 2:58 PM, famartin said: DC's been fairly screwed this winter so let them have a little fun DC had 70"+ last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 erh....just give me 70 degree temps again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 On 2/19/2011 at 3:21 PM, PSUHazletonWx said: DC had 70"+ last winter. again...we've been screwed this winter...try 8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 The GFS still says http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aIrhVo1WA78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Well that went down the drain quite quickly. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 On 2/19/2011 at 5:00 PM, jrodd321 said: Well that went down the drain quite quickly. Oh well. I wouldn't say the threat is completely gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 GEM is south. Not all the way south like the GFS, but south of 0Z. Actually looks fairly similar to the NAM and EC, just a tad wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I heard the UKMet is north? earthlight said it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Here's some approximate point QPF totals from what's available right now... note this is all from round 2, round 1 may give snow and ice to the Pocs/Lehigh... SID NAM GFS GEM ECM MPO 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.00 ABE 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.03 RDG 0.04 0.00 0.15 0.07 TTN 0.05 0.00 0.12 0.04 PHL 0.19 0.01 0.24 0.11 ILG 0.27 0.02 0.36 0.17 ACY 0.33 0.04 0.37 0.18 GED 0.77 0.24 0.66 0.32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 On 2/19/2011 at 5:23 PM, mattinpa said: I heard the UKMet is north? earthlight said it. It is, but right now it seems to stand alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Right now, considering the 0Z EC with the rest of the 12Z guidance, there seems to be 3 camps: 1 - Hardly a thing for the majority, GFS and old EC 2 - A minor hit for many, NAM and GEM 3 - A moderate hit for most, the UK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 On 2/19/2011 at 5:29 PM, famartin said: Right now, considering the 0Z EC with the rest of the 12Z guidance, there seems to be 3 camps: 1 - Hardly a thing for the majority, GFS and old EC 2 - A minor hit for many, NAM and GEM 3 - A moderate hit for most, the UK the writing has been on the board for a few days. We had a few model runs that got weenies up. Most have showed that this area was in the shaft zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 On 2/19/2011 at 5:43 PM, Darkstar said: the writing has been on the board for a few days. We had a few model runs that got weenies up. Most have showed that this area was in the shaft zone. I tend to agree with you, maybe we'll be proven wrong, but this isn't January anymore, it doesn't snow easily in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Euro sounds like the NAM a bit? I still wouldn't rule out this coming further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Euro much further south with the first wave.. snow near PHL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 around .10 of snow for phl on the 2nd event...its alot more amp up at 72 hrs....but 78 it shears it out...so the good snows never make it north of mason dixon line....first event prob starts as frozen for phl...then to rain.......around .20 frozen for north jersey and poconos on the euro for first event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 On 2/19/2011 at 6:06 PM, mattinpa said: Euro much further south with the first wave.. snow near PHL. .01 shading and 850's are quickly climbing back over 0 as the event begins...it's nothing to write home about. Round one is a Pocono/Lehigh Valley event that might flizzard on the front end here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 What does the Euro show for in terms of qpf for DC Balt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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