tombo82685 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Well its been awhile since we have had to track a possible wintry threat. The 12z euro, crushes everything from the pv being so far south, the confluence just shears the precip as it tries to advance north. The ggem is a moderate snowstorm for the region. The gfs is an ice storm in the northern burbs, with a snow event for the lehigh valley and poconos. Lots can change with this threat, but the potential is there if the players come together correctly. The key pieces that need to be looked at on the future runs, is the strength and postion of the -nao. Also, the position of the pv. Further south pv would crush everything to the south with to much confluence. Pv to far north would allow the storm to track over or north of us bringing in rain or snow/ice to rain. So the pv has to be positioned in a good spot to set up the potential threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 great write up tombo....i saw orh weatherman refrance 2-22-08 as a possible analog.. http://www.njfreeways.com/weather/2008/22-Feb-08.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 17, 2011 Author Share Posted February 17, 2011 great write up tombo....i saw orh weatherman refrance 2-22-08 as a possible analog.. http://www.njfreeway.../22-Feb-08.html Thanks tim, no where near as detailed as john gets into, but i think its time to start a thread since we are in the 5 day period now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 18z GFS continue to trend colder for the 2/22 storm. One more shift south and this is looking like a nice storm for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 18z GFS continue to trend colder for the 2/22 storm. One more shift south and this is looking like a nice storm for us. Hm...slightly tempted to come back into winter mode with this threat, but the 50-60 degree weather is certainly enjoyable. We'll see how this goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 thanks for posting tom... was hoping someone would start this thread already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_pcp_114l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 MAJOR SNOWSTORM FOR DC this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_pcp_132l.gif Nice storm for N Virginia and DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 MAJOR SNOWSTORM FOR DC this run http://www.nco.ncep....fs_pcp_132l.gif Nice storm for N Virginia and DC Yep. Congrats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 If the confluence is just a little less, we get some decent overrunning, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 MAJOR SNOWSTORM FOR DC this run hardly.... they barely see 0.5" of QPF if you're speaking major snowstorm relative to the 60 degree weather...i guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 hardly.... they barely see 0.5" of QPF if you're speaking major snowstorm relative to the 60 degree weather...i guess fine, significant, respectable, whatever. it's decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 fine, significant, respectable, whatever. it's decent. Especially considering most forecasters said winter was over south of the Mason Dixon line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I especially love the 0.75" of QPF that St. Louis gets as snow the same hour as my flight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Meh, not really impressed at this point. The solutions (at least for round one) have now trended warmer and round two is showing a suppressed tendency (but it looks not all that strong overall). Need an awful lot of needle threading to go just right for the second part of this to verify as snow here. DC might have a better shot... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Meh, not really impressed at this point. The solutions (at least for round one) have now trended warmer and round two is showing a suppressed tendency (but it looks not all that strong overall). Need an awful lot of needle threading to go just right for the second part of this to verify as snow here. DC might have a better shot... 6z GFS trended stronger and just as cold for wave two. Also not as suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 6z GFS trended stronger and just as cold for wave two. Also not as suppressed. odds favor some sort of snow in this time period. 6 Z is a healthy dump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 6z GFS trended stronger and just as cold for wave two. Also not as suppressed. Comparing it to 18z it's weaker than 18 but stronger than 0. There really isn't a "trend" established except that there will be two waves...one probably rain as the front waffles back south, the other probably frozen and suppressed. How suppressed remains to be seen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Especially considering most forecasters said winter was over south of the Mason Dixon line. *cough* JB *cough* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Especially considering most forecasters said winter was over south of the Mason Dixon line. The back of winter being broken does not mean winter cancel. I'm not one to defend JB but where he specifically say that winter was over...it read to me that he opined that sustained cold was over. To be fair, that isn't far from reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 17, 2011 Author Share Posted February 17, 2011 0z euro is rain for wave number 1 then nothing for wave number 2 as it just gets sheared to death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 00z GEM shows something similar to the GFS (rather than the Euro) with 2 events early next week (the second one mainly south of our area). Overall, its tough to get too excited about snow chances this far out.....honestly at this time of the season for me its getting tougher to get excited about accumulating snow, period. Heck, I'll take two snow events next week, but part of me is like, "oh well" if it doesn't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 *cough* JB *cough* I was going to say... I don't think "most" were saying that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 The back of winter being broken does not mean winter cancel. I'm not one to defend JB but where he specifically say that winter was over...it read to me that he opined that sustained cold was over. To be fair, that isn't far from reality. He said repeatedly that he felt winter was certainly not over from I-70 north, although the worst of winter had already occurred, which as we head into March is pretty obvious. South of I-70 the fork has been give to winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 What the way the euro has been performing with it's inconsistency that would be the last model I would rely upon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 What the way the euro has been performing with it's inconsistency that would be the last model I would rely upon. I would suggest not relying on any one model. Ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 JB 7am likes Canadian the best at this point. 0z keeps precip suppressed for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 The Wxsim program with the 6z data now has 8" to 10" of snow accumulating by the Tuesday AM rush here is the breakdown Lt rain/snow mix sunday evening to occasional light rain during the day Monday temps in the mid 30's Moderate snow gets underway by 830pm on Monday night with temps falling below freezing Heavy snow much of the night with 8" to 10" of snow by am rush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 The Wxsim program with the 6z data now has 8" to 10" of snow accumulating by the Tuesday AM rush here is the breakdown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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