jconsor Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 The 15z SREF mean is a good compromise between Euro and GFS in terms of upper pattern and temps. It has some elongation of the polar vortex, but more separation with the southern stream and a better confluence zone than the GFS. The SREF has the lead wave significantly better defined and further north by Sun night than the ECMWF. I wouldn't run naked yet, but it's nice having that on our side. I've seen the ensembles waffle 96 hrs out. Perhaps some sort of compromise is in order between the Euro and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 The SREFs are a good compromise between Euro and GFS in terms of upper pattern and temps. They have some elongation of the polar vortex, but more separation with the southern stream and a better confluence zone than the GFS. The SREFs imply that the first wave is significantly better defined and further north than the ECMWF. This ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Getting confused with all the threads but couple of salient points, just did a snow temp profile with our high tech lab equipment. Top layer is 27 middle 26 and bottom 25, if you remember my post from the other day, snow becomes isothermal at 32 before it ripens and really melts fast, we are not there yet, big yet. Regarding NORAD we have seen lots of C-109 type planes, you can just see it here at the top of treetops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Getting confused with all the threads but couple of salient points, just did a snow temp profile with our high tech lab equipment. Top layer is 27 middle 26 and bottom 25, if you remember my post from the other day, snow becomes isothermal at 32 before it ripens and really melts fast, we are not there yet, big yet. Regarding NORAD we have seen lots of C-109 type planes, you can just see it here at the top of treetops. Yea, the dews are still low enough where the snowpack is not really torching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 A moderate snow event looms on the Sunday nite/ monday horizon. Euro and it's ens FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 A moderate snow event looms on the Sunday nite/ monday horizon. Euro and it's ens FTW How much are you locking in? 48.8/32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benchmarkbuoy Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Wow...this is really starting to get depressing and really beginning to look like our true winter ended on Feb 2nd, as that was the last accumlating snow here in SNE. Looks like we miss to the south on the storm monday and the there is a cutter late week and then we are in March and the light at the end of the tunnell gets brighter. I just wish that we could have held onto the epic patter for two more weeks and then let spring come full force...what we may be looking at is the worstcase scenario where it is warm through the rest of feb and then cold and dreary but not cold enough for snow all through march and into april...I have seen planty of years when it is in the upper 30's low 40's with clouds and rain especially near the coast with the ocean...just miserbale stuff. Here's hoping that we get some more snow while it is cold enough because as epic as our run was...it was only from about Jan 12 to Feb 2nd and when history looks back a three week stretch of heavy snows will not be remembered as much is the last six weeks of winter fizzle out. There have been many years when Boston has recieved over 65 inches of snow...this will just be one of them jp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Wow...this is really starting to get depressing and really beginning to look like our true winter ended on Feb 2nd, as that was the last accumlating snow here in SNE. Looks like we miss to the south on the storm monday and the there is a cutter late week and then we are in March and the light at the end of the tunnell gets brighter. I just wish that we could have held onto the epic patter for two more weeks and then let spring come full force...what we may be looking at is the worstcase scenario where it is warm through the rest of feb and then cold and dreary but not cold enough for snow all through march and into april...I have seen planty of years when it is in the upper 30's low 40's with clouds and rain especially near the coast with the ocean...just miserbale stuff. Here's hoping that we get some more snow while it is cold enough because as epic as our run was...it was only from about Jan 12 to Feb 2nd and when history looks back a three week stretch of heavy snows will not be remembered as much is the last six weeks of winter fizzle out. There have been many years when Boston has recieved over 65 inches of snow...this will just be one of them jp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Looks great!... for June 26th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Wow...this is really starting to get depressing and really beginning to look like our true winter ended on Feb 2nd, as that was the last accumlating snow here in SNE. Looks like we miss to the south on the storm monday and the there is a cutter late week and then we are in March and the light at the end of the tunnell gets brighter. I just wish that we could have held onto the epic patter for two more weeks and then let spring come full force...what we may be looking at is the worstcase scenario where it is warm through the rest of feb and then cold and dreary but not cold enough for snow all through march and into april...I have seen planty of years when it is in the upper 30's low 40's with clouds and rain especially near the coast with the ocean...just miserbale stuff. Here's hoping that we get some more snow while it is cold enough because as epic as our run was...it was only from about Jan 12 to Feb 2nd and when history looks back a three week stretch of heavy snows will not be remembered as much is the last six weeks of winter fizzle out. There have been many years when Boston has recieved over 65 inches of snow...this will just be one of them jp First: Seond: Boston is already over 65". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Looks great!... for June 26th A day in the 40's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 The 12z ETA is also a compromise between GFS and Euro - it has better confluence than the GFS but not the extreme digging of the polar vortex that the Euro shows. Has a nice swath of overrunning precip. as well with no sharp northern edge since the confluence isn't overwhelming. Also note how the ETA is about 6 hours faster than the GFS and SREF mean with the precip. onset. The precip. usually rushes in a little faster than the guidance indicates in SW flow/overrunning events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Yea, the dews are still low enough where the snowpack is not really torching. The lack of water pouring down the streets yards and driveways speaks volumes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benchmarkbuoy Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 = reality Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 The lack of water pouring down the streets yards and driveways speaks volumes. Guess you weren't walking around here. Good flow going down the hills. 48.7/32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I want my snowpack to survive, but its taking a beatdown, lost at least 3 inches and I was stuck in the low 40s this morning with winds coming off lis. But, snow coming next week!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Guess you weren't walking around here. Good flow going down the hills. 48.7/32 Well all the ice off driveways have been gone here from Mondays torch. Let's see what overnight does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Getting confused with all the threads but couple of salient points, just did a snow temp profile with our high tech lab equipment. Top layer is 27 middle 26 and bottom 25, if you remember my post from the other day, snow becomes isothermal at 32 before it ripens and really melts fast, we are not there yet, big yet. Regarding NORAD we have seen lots of C-109 type planes, you can just see it here at the top of treetops. Pretty extensive excercises being run...makes you think what do they know? This was aggressive today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Here come the idiotic troll posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 = reality Have you read any of the threads or posts today? Snow on Monday ...cold for foreseeable future Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Pretty extensive excercises being run...makes you think what do they know? This was aggressive today. I usually hear through the grapevine, just exercises scheduled from a while ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Gotta admire this torch...far exceeded my expectations. Tomorrow could be a real bloodbath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 = reality Calling winter over in mid Feb =pure ignorance; FACT not opinion. Your post was very unintelligent....plain and simple. So we happen to have one run of the EURO show a scrape in a pattern that has been defined as tedious by mets, incessantly....please purchase a clue and understand that one soloution at day 4 does not a forecast make. There is not alot of blocking and every reason to believe that it will trend n, though it does not have to. As for the day 10 warm up, mets in here have been saying that we may see another mild interlude before we see a potentially more favorable pattern in March....your post was excrement; that is why you were weenied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Gotta admire this torch...far exceeded my expectations. Tomorrow could be a real bloodbath. I think tomorrow is cooler..more clouds and onshore flow..offset though by higher dews Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Well all the ice off driveways have been gone here from Mondays torch. Let's see what overnight does. Still have 50% ice/slush on my driveway despite Monday. It became a rink Tuesday... I won't mind having a driveway again until the next snowfall... And my gutters are doing their thing! And finally, the ground over my septic tank is bare! A sure sign of spring here in the hinterlands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Calling winter over in mid Feb =pure ignorance; FACT not opinion. Your post was very unintelligent....plain and simple. So we happen to have one run of the EURO show a scrape in a pattern that has been defined as tedious by mets, incessantly....please purchase a clue and understand that one soloution at day 4 does not a forecast make. There is not alot of blocking and every reason to believe that it will trend n, though it does not have to. As for the day 10 warm up, mets in here have been saying that we may see another mild interlude before we see a potentially more favorable pattern in March....your post was excrement; that is why you were weenied. March will be FILTHY Felgie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Still have 50% ice/slush on my driveway despite Monday. It became a rink Tuesday... I won't mind having a driveway again until the next snowfall... And my gutters are doing their thing! And finally, the ground over my septic tank is bare! A sure sign of spring here in the hinterlands Same thing here..one little round circle melted thru the snow where the tank is lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benchmarkbuoy Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Indeed...I have been paying very close attention to every model run, both long and medium range. There is amazing agreement between them that after we go near 60 today and into the 60's tomorrow...then we have seasonal temps with snow showers/rain showers over the weekend...it gets cold for Monday and Tuesday as a storm misses us to the south that gives Balt, DC, Philly and NYC 2-5 inches and then goes out to sea...after that we go back into a warming period for the rest of the week with a major strom riding up west of the apps giving the entire NE more warmth and rain...by then Feb is over and it will have been exactly one month since our last accumulating snow...what am I missing? You seem to know something I don't about this "snow and cold for the forseable future" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 March will be FILTHY Felgie Even if I'm wrong and it's pedestrian....does climo=winter over.....really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I think tomorrow is cooler..more clouds and onshore flow..offset though by higher dews That's the real kicker... the dew point. Snow doesn't go anywhere fast if its 50/20F, but 50/40F is a whole different story. We torched to 48F under full sun today but melting was at a minimum because the air was so dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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